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Trend Micro Incorporated (ADR) (TMICY)
:TMICY
US Market

Trend Micro (TMICY) AI Stock Analysis

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TM

Trend Micro

(OTC:TMICY)

71Outperform
Trend Micro's overall stock score reflects its strong financial foundation and promising strategic direction, offset by technical resistance and high valuation concerns. The company's transition to a subscription model and solid dividend yield offer potential upsides, while the recent cash flow decline and market challenges require monitoring.

Trend Micro (TMICY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Trend Micro Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTrend Micro (TMICY) is a global leader in cybersecurity solutions, offering a range of products and services designed to protect individuals, businesses, and governments from online threats. The company operates in the information technology sector, focusing on endpoint security, network defense, and cloud security. Key products include antivirus software, internet security suites, and enterprise-level solutions for threat detection and response.
How the Company Makes MoneyTrend Micro makes money primarily through the sale of its cybersecurity products and services. Revenue streams include licensing fees for its software solutions, subscription-based models for ongoing protection services, and consulting fees for cybersecurity assessments and implementation. The company also partners with cloud service providers and technology firms to integrate its security solutions, expanding its market reach and enhancing its product offerings. Significant factors contributing to its earnings are the increasing demand for robust cybersecurity measures across various industries and the company's ability to innovate and adapt to evolving threats.

Trend Micro Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Trend Micro demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, high profitability, a robust balance sheet, and efficient cash flow management. The decline in net income and free cash flow requires attention, but overall financial stability remains solid.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Trend Micro has demonstrated solid financial performance with a consistent increase in total revenue over the years, showing a healthy revenue growth rate from 2022 to 2023. The company maintains strong profitability with a high gross profit margin and a respectable net profit margin. However, the net income has decreased compared to previous years, which slightly impacts the overall score.
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
The balance sheet is robust, with a strong equity base and zero debt, leading to a favorable debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio is also healthy, indicating financial stability. Stockholders' equity has seen a slight decrease, which is a minor concern. Overall, the company's balance sheet reflects financial strength and stability.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Trend Micro's cash flow statement shows a stable operating cash flow with a high operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow has seen a decline, which is a concern, but the company still maintains a positive free cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong, highlighting effective cash management despite the recent dip in free cash flow.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
263.69B248.69B223.79B190.36B174.06B165.19B
Gross Profit
197.02B185.03B169.50B148.34B135.90B132.90B
EBIT
38.85B32.60B31.34B43.64B39.46B37.69B
EBITDA
68.59B60.29B56.53B64.54B62.14B53.50B
Net Income Common Stockholders
16.77B10.73B29.84B38.37B26.90B27.95B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
177.78B299.03B242.85B256.80B212.27B172.60B
Total Assets
346.24B492.63B470.80B420.46B376.70B359.71B
Total Debt
0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Net Debt
-116.50B-247.86B-191.54B-197.73B-155.74B-124.98B
Total Liabilities
159.16B278.21B242.12B199.03B187.34B172.28B
Stockholders Equity
187.01B214.39B228.66B220.64B188.53B187.27B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
22.89B30.87B35.92B36.48B42.47B34.42B
Operating Cash Flow
51.17B57.23B56.90B55.27B54.31B45.11B
Investing Cash Flow
29.60B31.00B-67.72B2.58B-5.78B-1.47B
Financing Cash Flow
-137.03B-43.43B-30.44B-16.45B-21.14B-25.96B

Trend Micro Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price68.28
Price Trends
50DMA
62.89
Positive
100DMA
58.30
Positive
200DMA
54.74
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.70
Positive
RSI
46.08
Neutral
STOCH
0.08
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMICY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 68.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.62, above the 50-day MA of 62.89, and above the 200-day MA of 54.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 0.08 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TMICY.

Trend Micro Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$2.83T30.6234.29%0.83%15.04%12.38%
79
Outperform
$24.46B29.8230.15%6.22%6.15%
79
Outperform
$73.85B42.50338.74%12.27%54.69%
74
Outperform
$241.36B27.1920.02%2.58%-5.34%-30.57%
71
Outperform
$9.25B39.8119.95%8.56%0.80%60.94%
71
Outperform
$115.09B98.2023.38%13.86%-46.44%
58
Neutral
$21.35B10.05-19.26%2.35%5.02%-22.63%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TMICY
Trend Micro
67.69
16.89
33.25%
CHKP
Check Point
217.99
53.19
32.28%
CSCO
Cisco Systems
60.46
11.88
24.45%
FTNT
Fortinet
97.93
27.75
39.54%
MSFT
Microsoft
383.27
-28.68
-6.96%
PANW
Palo Alto Networks
179.48
34.42
23.73%

Trend Micro Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 18, 2025 | % Change Since: -10.39% | Next Earnings Date: May 8, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a strong performance in the enterprise segment and significant advancements in AI and cybersecurity. However, challenges in the consumer business and issues with accounts receivable present notable concerns.
Highlights
Strong Pre-GAAP Performance
Pre-GAAP net sales increased by 20% year-on-year, indicating strong performance and resilience in the market.
Record Pre-GAAP Organic Growth
The company achieved its highest-ever pre-GAAP organic growth, without the impact of acquisitions, marking a significant milestone.
Enterprise Business Growth
Enterprise business grew by 24% year-over-year in Q4, driven by strong performance in the Vision One platform.
Dividend Increase
The annual dividend increased to ¥184 per share, compared to ¥56 in the previous year, reflecting a strong shareholder return policy.
AI and Cybersecurity Innovations
Significant advancements in AI and proactive cybersecurity, positioning the company as a leader in AI-enabled edge computing and cybersecurity solutions.
Lowlights
Challenges in Consumer Business
Consumer business faced challenges due to the switch from Digital River, resulting in a negative impact on net sales.
Decline in Perpetual Renewable Growth
Perpetual renewable growth declined to single digits, indicating challenges in sustaining previous growth levels.
Impact of Unrecoverable Accounts Receivable
A problem with the outsourcer Digital River led to a JPY 1.7 billion loss, affecting pre-GAAP revenue.
Headcount Reduction
The company saw a decrease in headcount from 7,400 in 2023 to 6,869 in 2024, although it was framed as an efficiency improvement.
Company Guidance
In the recent call, Trend Micro provided guidance highlighting several key financial metrics for their fiscal year 2024. They reported an 8% increase in net sales for the fourth quarter, with operating income between 8.8% and 13%, albeit lower than the previous quarter. The pre-GAAP net sales saw a significant 20% year-on-year growth, amounting to more than JPY 100 billion, while the pre-GAAP operating income was JPY 41.1 billion. The company's enterprise subscription business grew by 15%, although perpetual renewals experienced single-digit growth. Trend Micro also noted a headcount reduction to 6,869 from 7,400 the previous year, aiming to improve efficiency through AI investments. The company anticipates a 6% net sales growth, with a 25% increase in operating income, despite a JPY 1.7 billion deduction due to a payment issue with Digital River. The dividend for the year is set at ¥184 per share, with a 70% payout ratio, and the company plans to buy back shares worth approximately ¥10 billion. For the consumer segment, challenges were noted due to issues with the online settlement outsourcer, leading to a potential JPY 20 million negative impact on net sales. Overall, Trend Micro is focusing on leveraging AI to enhance productivity and cybersecurity offerings, aligning with their strategy to achieve proactive cybersecurity in the AI era.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.