The Turkcell Group has investments in several emerging or developing markets, including Ukraine, Belarus and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and has activities that involve other emerging or developing markets. Legal systems, institutions, commercial practices and economies in those markets tend to be relatively underdeveloped and some may also suffer from relatively high rates of fraud and corruption. Were we to be affected by fraud or corruption, we could incur significant penalties under applicable anti-corruption legislation, including the FCPA, as well as reputational harm. The Turkcell Group also retains potential liability with regards to its divested businesses in such countries. There can be no assurance that political, legal, economic, social or other actions or developments in these countries or involving such companies will not have an adverse impact on our investments and businesses in these countries. In particular, Ukraine has been in conflict with Russian military forces since 2022, while Belarus has been the subject of sanctions over the last three years.
Recent issues in our international operations include the following:
- Our company decided to sell all of its operations in Ukraine (Lifecell LLC, LLC Global Bilgi and LLC UkrTower) to NJJ Capital and signed a share transfer agreement on December 29, 2023 ("Share Transfer Agreement"). See "Item 4. Information on the Company-B. Business Overview-IX. International and Domestic Subsidiaries-Ukraine-lifecell" below.
The sale remains subject to the approval of the Ukrainian authorities and satisfaction of conditions to closing, and there is no guarantee that it will be completed in the time frame anticipated, or at all. Although we believe that the sale of our Ukrainian businesses will provide financial, operational and other benefits to us and our stockholders, we cannot provide assurance that we will achieve the full strategic and financial benefits expected from the sale. Further, such benefits, if ultimately achieved, may be delayed.
The actions undertaken by Russian military forces against Ukraine since the beginning of 2022 have put our Ukrainian businesses (lifecell, UkrTower, Global LLC and Paycell LLC) at risk and are creating and are likely to continue to create substantial disruptions in the region. A number of our BTS sites have been damaged and our control over our BTS sites and business may be compromised by any further degradation in Ukraine's territorial integrity, whether as a result of military action or any ensuing situation. Occupation by Russia of the territories in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions and so-called referendums to join Russia, led to impairment of lifecell and Ukrtower assets. Due to the lack of access to sites on the occupied territories, it is impossible to reliably establish their loss or damage. In total, a reversal of impairment loss of TRY 25.9 million (not restated for IAS 29) has been recognized in 2023 in relation to the assets on Ukraine liberated territories or assets whose operational activity was restored. However, the ongoing war may lead to an impairment of the value of our assets in Ukraine. Russian missile attacks on energy and other critical infrastructure have led and may continue to lead to country-wide electricity cuts, which in turn result in lower lifecell network availability. Although we are unable to predict the likely course or duration of these continuing events, the war in Ukraine could materially disrupt our Ukrainian operations, including our financial and banking transactions, lead to a decrease in revenue and subscriber base, increase our costs through, inter alia, increased costs of compliance, impact cash flows, cause harm to our team members and otherwise impair their ability to work for extended periods of time, as well as disrupting banks and other critical infrastructure necessary to conduct business in Ukraine. In addition, under conditions of martial law, mobile operators are likely to attract increased interest from criminals, including politically motivated actors, increasing the risks of system failure or cyber security breaches. Ukraine's largest mobile operator was targeted in a powerful cyberattack in December 2023, causing a technical failure that temporarily disrupted communication services and internet access for Ukrainians over a period of several days. As of the end of December 2023, 97% of the daily average stores across the country are open. The continuation of the war might increase the shop destructions. We also face a risk of loss of control or expropriation of our assets.
In Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine ("NBU") fixed the official UAH/USD exchange rate at 36.5686 as of July 21, 2022, and NBU shifted to the regime of managed flexibility of the exchange rate on October 3, 2023. As of 2023-year end, UAH/USD was at 37.9824. In 2023, inflation fell faster than expected, closing the year at 5.1%, due to higher harvests and thus more food supply, as well as due to further reduction of pressure on business costs. As of March 2024, the inflation figure was announced at 3.2%. In view of the current situation, it is not possible to make any reliable assessment of the outlook for the Ukrainian economy. Weaknesses of state institutions, civil unrest and economic turbulence have also adversely affected the overall economic situation in Ukraine.
In addition to the political risks in relation to the military actions underway and the risks of economic instability, our operations in Ukraine could also expose us to operational, competitive, regulatory and legal risks, as well as the political risk of nationalization of some or all of our assets, or the risk of restrictions on our ability to upstream cash, in particular if the sale of such operations is not successfully completed.
- We also carry out business in Belarus through 100% stake in BeST. See "Item 4. Information on the Company-B. Business Overview-IX. International and Domestic Subsidiaries-BeST."
After the controversial presidential election held in 2020, which caused protests and strikes, the US, the UK, Canada and the EU imposed a broad range of sanctions against Belarus and certain Belarussian entities and persons and certain sectors in Belarus. In 2022 and 2023, the EU, US, UK and certain other countries broadened this scope, imposing significant sanctions on Belarusian persons and entities, visa restrictions, import bans and wide-ranging export controls, stemming from both the presidential election and Belarus's ongoing involvement in Russia's invasion of Ukraine and targeting a wide range of industries and goods. We may face risks of violations in cases where domestic regulations conflict with these sanctions' restrictions.
The imposed sanctions and limitations affect the economic climate in Belarus, and also affect our access to, and the cost of, imported equipment and software, notably our base station and office software. These factors may lead to a decline in our operating performance, our ability to make investments and an impairment of the value of our assets there.
In particular, due to these sanctions and the limitations thereof, we face difficulties in making the investments required under the Investment Agreement between Turkcell and Belarus (See "Item 4 Information on the Company-B. Business Overview-IX. International and Domestic Subsidiaries-BeST") due to both the lack of imported hardware and software (and vendor support) and the challenges with banking operations or international transactions resulting from the sanctions placed by the aforementioned countries on some Belarusian banks. We may also face difficulties in making the required USD 100 million installment payment pursuant to the Investment Agreement. Our failure to implement the investment project within the agreed timeline and/or comply with the investment amount may result in penalties, termination of the Investment Agreement and/or compensation to Belarus for the benefits granted under the Investment Agreement, any of which could have an adverse effect on our business and results of operations in the mid-to-long term.
In Belarus, annual inflation for 2023 was 5.8%, while for the first quarter of 2024 inflation was reported as 2.2%. The National Bank gradually decreased the refinancing rate from 12% to 9.5%, effective from June 2023. As of December 31, 2023, the local currency had devaluated by 16.1%, based on the National Bank of Republic of Belarus, as compared to closing rates on December 31, 2022. Macroeconomic stability is currently fragile due to the country's reliance on the Russian economy and domestic political instability.
There can be no assurance that such economic, political, regulatory and operational difficulties will evolve favorably in the future. These risks have affected and could adversely affect our reputation and results of operations.
- In the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (the "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus" or "TRNC"), our subsidiary Kibris Telekom holds 247 MHz bandwidth on 700 MHz, 800 MHz, 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz, 2600 MHz and 3600 MHz frequencies. If Kibris Telekom fails to comply with the terms and conditions of its license agreements, we may incur penalties, which could have an adverse effect on our business and results of operations. Additionally, the incumbent telecom operator, TRNC Telecommunications Office, may be restructured as a public-private partnership. If the restructuring were to be awarded to one of our main competitors, or to include the issuance of a third mobile license, this would adversely affect our growth and our competitiveness in the region. Furthermore, due to its designation as an operator having significant market power in the mobile access and call origination markets, Kibris Telekom is obliged to provide access and call origination services to MVNOs. Any of these factors may increase competition in the market and adversely affect our business and financial condition.
In the past, there have been political discussions regarding the reunification of Cyprus, which, if resumed, may bring growth opportunities for our subsidiary, but may also lead to risks including unfavorable changes in applicable regulations, an increase in competition, an increase in capital expenditure requirements and loss of revenues.
Our international subsidiaries may not benefit us in the way we expect for the reasons cited above, as well as for other reasons, including general macroeconomic conditions, poor management and legal, regulatory or political obstacles, all of which may be further impacted by war or other conflict. For example, foreign exchange controls in Ukraine have included, for example, a ban on the purchase and cross-border transfer of currency for the purpose of paying dividends. Although such restrictions are being lifted, they are being replaced by monthly limitations on dividend payments. Such restrictions may be further expanded in these countries, or other restrictions may be imposed on the ability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends or to make distributions to us, or on our ability to repatriate funds, any of which could restrict Turkcell's ability to receive funds from those operations. For some of these subsidiaries, we do not expect to achieve desired levels of profitability in the near or mid-term. We may also in response to such conditions consider increasing, restructuring or exiting certain of our investments and we may be required to establish new legal entities or engage in new business lines due to our business needs or recently introduced regulations. In addition, if an asset in which we have invested does not provide the expected returns, we may choose to dispose of it at a sale price that may be below its carrying or liquidation value. These factors could have an adverse effect on the implementation of our strategy, our financial condition and the demand for and the price of our shares. In this regard, we have and are likely to continue to experience issues in some of our international businesses that adversely affect our Company.
In addition to investing in our international operations, we also engage in business through roaming agreements in a number of countries. In international markets in which monopoly or duopoly markets exist, such as Monaco, the United Arab Emirates or the Maldives, operators tend to increase their roaming prices despite the overall global trend of declining roaming prices, which could increase our roaming costs. Moreover, the terms on which we enter into roaming agreements may change over time, adversely affecting our ability to sustain or enter into such agreements on commercially viable terms.