Triumph Financial (TFIN) AI Stock Analysis

97 Followers

Top Page

Triumph Financial

(NASDAQ:TFIN)

53Neutral

Triumph Financial shows stability through a strong balance sheet and strategic growth potential highlighted in the earnings call. However, declining profitability and bearish technical indicators, coupled with a high P/E ratio, reflect challenges that temper the outlook. The overall assessment suggests caution due to mixed signals on financial performance and market trends.

Triumph Financial (TFIN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.16B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)241.66K

Price to Earnings (P/E)90.3

Beta (1Y)1.40

Revenue Growth2.91%

EPS Growth-66.09%

CountryUS

Employees1,553

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength86

IndustryBanks - Regional

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.54

Shares Outstanding23,420,261

10 Day Avg. Volume312,132

30 Day Avg. Volume241,659

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)3.47

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)9.80

P/FCF Ratio8.20

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$76.50

Price Target Upside56.12% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering4

Triumph Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTriumph Financial (TFIN) is a financial services company operating in the banking sector. It provides a range of financial products and services, including commercial and industrial loans, factoring services, equipment financing, and treasury management solutions to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and other business customers. Triumph Financial aims to support businesses in managing their financial needs through a comprehensive suite of tailored financial solutions.

How the Company Makes MoneyTriumph Financial makes money primarily through the interest and fees charged on its lending products, such as commercial loans and equipment financing. The company also generates significant revenue from its factoring services, where it purchases accounts receivable from businesses at a discount, providing them with immediate cash flow. Additionally, Triumph Financial earns income from treasury management services, which include various financial management tools and services that help businesses manage their daily financial operations efficiently. Key partnerships with other financial institutions and business networks further enhance its ability to reach a broader customer base and increase its revenue streams.

Triumph Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Triumph Financial shows a stable balance sheet with a strong equity position and reduced debt levels. However, the income statement reveals pressures on profitability and growth, with declining margins and inconsistent revenue trends. Cash flow performance is positive but shows signs of decreasing growth, which could impact future strategic initiatives.

Income Statement

Neutral

Triumph Financial's revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a notable decline from 2022 to 2023. The net profit margin decreased significantly from 2022 to 2023, indicating pressure on profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown downward trends, impacting overall financial stability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

Triumph Financial maintains a strong equity base with a high equity ratio, indicating financial stability. The company has reduced its debt significantly over the years, leading to a favorable debt-to-equity ratio. However, the return on equity has decreased, reflecting decreased profitability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

The operating cash flow has been positive, but there is a decline in free cash flow growth, which could constrain future investments. The free cash flow to net income ratio is solid, indicating good cash generation relative to net income, though the growth rate has been inconsistent.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
415.57M	473.10M	484.56M	423.63M	335.36M
	Gross Profit
415.57M	473.10M	484.56M	423.63M	335.36M
	EBIT
-125.88M	52.81M	155.75M	144.95M	84.71M
	EBITDA
0.00	78.07M	162.23M	167.87M	103.76M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
12.88M	41.08M	102.31M	112.97M	64.02M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
455.40M	286.63M	662.69M	565.60M	538.70M
	Total Assets
5.95B	5.35B	5.33B	5.96B	5.94B
	Total Debt
142.01M	405.42M	178.96M	354.70M	424.44M
	Net Debt
-73.84M	118.78M	-229.22M	-28.48M	110.05M
	Total Liabilities
5.06B	4.48B	4.44B	354.70M	424.44M
	Stockholders Equity
890.92M	864.40M	888.97M	858.86M	726.78M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
11.80M	16.24M	63.58M	122.60M	79.75M
	Operating Cash Flow
11.80M	43.20M	74.49M	136.96M	97.33M
	Investing Cash Flow
979.00K	-112.69M	672.38M	77.66M	-774.74M
	Financing Cash Flow
-43.40M	-52.05M	-721.87M	-145.83M	793.92M

Triumph Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price49.00

Price Trends

50DMA

64.50

Negative

100DMA

79.29

Negative

200DMA

81.88

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-2.68

Negative

RSI

29.89

Positive

STOCH

12.88

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TFIN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.37, below the 50-day MA of 64.50, and below the 200-day MA of 81.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.68 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 29.89 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.88 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TFIN.

Triumph Financial Risk Analysis

Triumph Financial disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Triumph Financial reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Triumph Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VBTX	73 Outperform	$1.15B	10.78	6.85%	3.80%	2.74%	-1.34%
CCB	71 Outperform	$1.20B	24.31	12.33%	―	30.90%	-0.62%
TCBK	70 Outperform	$1.18B	10.39	9.65%	3.68%	6.25%	-1.62%
HOPE	69 Neutral	$1.17B	11.15	4.68%	6.11%	-6.33%	-25.89%
WABC	69 Neutral	$1.18B	8.52	16.67%	3.98%	-5.00%	-14.23%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$13.21B	9.26	9.39%	4.87%	16.14%	-8.87%
TFIN	53 Neutral	$1.16B	90.26	1.83%	―	2.91%	-66.09%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TFIN

Triumph Financial

49.00

-26.58

-35.17%

HOPE

Hope Bancorp

9.11

-0.96

-9.53%

TCBK

Trico Bancshares

36.09

4.55

14.43%

WABC

Westamerica Bancorporation

43.72

-1.14

-2.54%

VBTX

Veritex

20.77

1.96

10.42%

CCB

Coastal Financial

79.06

40.98

107.62%

Triumph Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Jan 22, 2025 | % Change Since: -46.72% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 16, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a positive outlook with significant achievements in market share and transaction milestones. However, there are challenges related to AI impacts on transaction value and increased operating expenses. The company remains optimistic about future growth, especially with new segments and partnerships coming online.

Highlights

Brokered Freight Transactions Milestone

Triumph has reached a significant milestone by touching 50% of all brokered freight transactions in the United States, celebrating over $100 billion in total payments since the creation of their Payments segment.

Market Share Growth Goal

The company aims to increase its market share in the Payments segment to 60-65% by the end of 2025, having already eclipsed the 50% market share.

EBITDA Margin Improvement

Despite investments, the company continues to see improvements in EBITDA margins, indicating operational efficiency.

High Gross Margin in Intelligence Segment

The new Intelligence segment is expected to have a gross margin well over 90% due to the utilization of existing data and technology.

Lowlights

AI and Machine Learning Impact

AI and machine learning models have reduced the value of network transactions for factors, which was not fully understood by the company in earlier stages.

Noninterest Expense Increase

Noninterest expenses are expected to increase modestly due to compensation resets, bonus accruals, and healthcare cost inflation.

Factoring Market Challenges

The number of factoring client applications in 2024 has dropped significantly compared to previous years, indicating challenges in market conditions.

Company Guidance

During the Q4 2024 earnings call for Triumph Financial (TFIN), the executives provided insights into the company's strategic directions and future outlook. They highlighted their market dominance, noting that they now touch 50% of all brokered freight transactions in the U.S. and have surpassed $100 billion in total payments since launching their Payments segment. The company aims to increase its market share to 60-65% by the end of 2025, with expectations of improved EBITDA performance and revenue growth, particularly in the second half of the year. They are also focusing on Factoring-as-a-Service (FaaS) and LoadPay, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue as they expand into new partnerships. The executives indicated that the Intelligence segment, which leverages their extensive data for freight brokers, is poised for growth, while LoadPay has seen active usage with an average interchange rate of 1.9% for debit card transactions. Overall, Triumph Financial is positioned for substantial growth, driven by their innovative services and expanding market share in the freight payment industry.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.