Stag Industrial (STAG) AI Stock Analysis

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Stag Industrial

(NYSE:STAG)

75Outperform

Stag Industrial's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance, positive earnings call insights, and robust dividend yield. While technical indicators suggest caution and valuation appears high, the company's sound financial health and strategic leasing achievements provide a balanced outlook.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

The Q3 'Core' FFO of $0.60 was above the estimate, indicating strong financial performance.

Guidance and Earnings

STAG increased its FY'24 Core FFO guidance range, signaling confidence in future earnings.

Tenant Retention

Tenant retention improved 14.4% sequentially to 76.9%.

Negative Factors

Cash SSNOI

Cash SSNOI decreased year over year, with guidance indicating a further decrease in the next quarter.

Development Challenges

The development pipeline's completed portfolio is 0% leased, indicating potential challenges in securing tenants.

Leasing Spreads

Leasing spreads decelerated to 24.6% with 2025 leasing spreads softening to 24.1%.

Stag Industrial (STAG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$6.04B

Dividend Yield4.93%

Average Volume (3M)1.78M

Price to Earnings (P/E)30.6

Beta (1Y)0.78

Revenue Growth8.41%

EPS Growth-2.96%

CountryUS

Employees91

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength86

IndustryREIT - Industrial

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.04

Shares Outstanding186,618,130

10 Day Avg. Volume2,017,064

30 Day Avg. Volume1,779,111

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)8.27

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)15.10

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$38.71

Price Target Upside20.40% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering7

Stag Industrial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSTAG Industrial, Inc. (NYSE: STAG) is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition and operation of single-tenant, industrial properties throughout the United States. By targeting this type of property, STAG has developed an investment strategy that helps investors find a powerful balance of income plus growth.

How the Company Makes MoneyStag Industrial generates revenue primarily through leasing its portfolio of industrial properties to tenants. The company's business model involves acquiring properties that are leased to single tenants, often under long-term net leases where tenants are responsible for paying the majority of property operating expenses. This structure ensures a steady income stream with predictable cash flows. STAG's revenue is further enhanced by strategically acquiring properties in key logistics hubs and growing markets, allowing the company to benefit from increasing demand for industrial space driven by trends such as e-commerce and supply chain optimization. Additionally, STAG may engage in property development or redevelopment to increase property value and rental income. The company also benefits from advantageous debt financing to acquire properties, enhancing its return on equity.

Stag Industrial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Stag Industrial shows strong financial performance with revenue growth, improved profitability, debt elimination, and robust cash flow. While EBIT margin decreased, the overall financial stability is solid.

Income Statement

Positive

Stag Industrial's income statement shows a strong growth trajectory with Total Revenue increasing consistently over the years, from $405.95M in 2019 to $767.38M in 2024. Gross Profit Margin remained stable as revenue and gross profit were equal in 2024. The Net Profit Margin improved significantly from negative in 2019 to a solid 24.63% in 2024, highlighting enhanced profitability. However, EBIT Margin decreased significantly in 2024 compared to previous years, indicating increased operational expenses. Overall, the company demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, albeit with potential operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

Stag Industrial exhibits a solid balance sheet with growing Total Assets and Stockholders' Equity, reaching $6.83B and $3.46B, respectively, in 2024. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio improved significantly to 0 in 2024 due to the elimination of total debt, showcasing strong financial health and reduced risk. The Equity Ratio also remained robust at 50.58%. The Return on Equity (ROE) was strong at 5.47% in 2024. Overall, the company maintains a healthy balance sheet with no debt and strong equity, contributing to its financial stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

The cash flow statement of Stag Industrial demonstrates a strong operating cash flow, which increased steadily over the years, reaching $460.29M in 2024. The Free Cash Flow also showed positive growth, aligning with the company's profitability. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio was high, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. The company shows a solid cash flow position, with improving Free Cash Flow and strong cash generation capabilities.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
767.38M	707.84M	654.38M	562.16M	483.41M
	Gross Profit
612.56M	568.24M	528.68M	454.17M	394.05M
	EBIT
4.05M	242.30M	205.39M	164.09M	137.66M
	EBITDA
297.12M	516.05M	827.94M	402.79M	352.40M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
189.22M	192.84M	104.22M	131.73M	141.83M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
36.28M	20.74M	25.88M	18.98M	15.67M
	Total Assets
6.83B	6.28B	6.18B	5.83B	4.69B
	Total Debt
3.06B	2.66B	2.53B	2.25B	1.73B
	Net Debt
3.03B	2.64B	2.51B	2.23B	1.72B
	Total Liabilities
3.30B	2.84B	2.73B	2.44B	1.92B
	Stockholders Equity
3.46B	3.37B	3.38B	3.33B	2.72B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
460.29M	372.63M	335.22M	175.77M	179.10M
	Operating Cash Flow
460.29M	391.09M	387.93M	336.15M	293.92M
	Investing Cash Flow
-731.06M	-320.35M	-447.52M	-1.22B	-554.62M
	Financing Cash Flow
286.29M	-75.67M	63.19M	887.12M	269.18M

Stag Industrial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price32.15

Price Trends

50DMA

34.88

Negative

100DMA

34.70

Negative

200DMA

36.13

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.03

Positive

RSI

52.64

Neutral

STOCH

74.35

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STAG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.50, below the 50-day MA of 34.88, and below the 200-day MA of 36.13, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STAG.

Stag Industrial Risk Analysis

Stag Industrial disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stag Industrial reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Stag Industrial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REXR	76 Outperform	$7.62B	27.78	3.38%	5.03%	17.48%	7.45%
STAG	75 Outperform	$6.04B	30.60	5.53%	4.93%	8.41%	-2.96%
LXP	72 Outperform	$2.23B	58.03	2.04%	7.02%	5.27%	58.15%
FR	71 Outperform	$6.16B	20.87	10.99%	3.43%	9.06%	4.57%
TRNO	66 Neutral	$5.50B	27.86	5.59%	3.75%	18.24%	6.95%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$4.31B	16.14	-3.60%	11.88%	6.17%	-20.99%
COLD	52 Neutral	$5.55B	―	-2.73%	5.08%	-0.25%	72.06%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

STAG

Stag Industrial

32.15

-3.55

-9.94%

TRNO

Terreno Realty

55.83

-3.89

-6.51%

First Industrial Realty

46.33

-3.95

-7.86%

LXP

LXP Industrial Trust

7.69

-0.83

-9.74%

REXR

Rexford Industrial Realty

33.96

-12.07

-26.22%

COLD

Americold Realty

19.50

-3.96

-16.88%

Stag Industrial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 12, 2025 | % Change Since: -7.61% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and solid leasing achievements for 2024. However, challenges such as lower Q4 leasing spreads, expected occupancy decline, and market uncertainties regarding tariffs were noted. Despite these challenges, the company's strategic developments and healthy financial standing suggest a positive outlook.

Highlights

Leasing Achievements

Achieved cash leasing spreads of 23.8% for 70% of the 2025 expected leasing. For the year 2024, achieved cash and straight-line leasing spreads of 28.3% and 41.8% respectively.

Core FFO Growth

Core FFO per share increased by 4.8% compared to 2023.

Strong Same-Store NOI Growth

Record same-store cash NOI growth of 5.8% for the year 2024.

Development Progress

Entered a joint venture development partnership for 400,000 square feet in Charlotte with an expected stabilized yield of 7%.

Financial Health

Net debt to annualized run rate adjusted EBITDA was 5.2 times at year-end with liquidity of $623 million.

Lowlights

Leasing Challenges in Q4

Leasing spreads in Q4 were lower at 19% due to some fixed-rate renewal options.

Occupancy Decline Expected

Same-store occupancy is expected to decrease by 100 basis points during 2025.

Market Uncertainty

Uncertainty in the market due to tariffs and volatile capital market environment affecting acquisition timing.

Company Guidance

During STAG Industrial's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call, the company provided guidance for 2025, highlighting several key metrics. They have already leased 70% of the operating portfolio space they plan to lease in 2025, achieving cash leasing spreads of 23.8%. Their acquisition volume for Q4 was $294 million, while disposition proceeds totaled $29 million. For 2025, they anticipate same-store cash NOI growth to range between 3.5% to 4%, with retention rates projected between 70% to 75% and cash leasing spreads around 25%. The company expects to undertake 14 million square feet of new and renewal leasing. Acquisition volume guidance is set between $350 million and $650 million, with disposition volume expected between $100 million and $200 million. Core FFO per share is projected to be in the range of $2.46 to $2.50.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.