Sera Prognostics (SERA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $126.17M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 92.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.53
• Revenue Growth: -74.84%
• EPS Growth: 14.63%
• Country: US
• Employees: 63
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.99
• Shares Outstanding: 36,695,805
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 79,634
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 92,862
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1853.83
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -5.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

Sera Prognostics is grappling with financial instability and operational challenges, reflected in its weak financial scores and negative valuation metrics. Technical analysis suggests bearish sentiment, while earnings call insights reveal a mix of strategic initiatives and financial setbacks. The overall score is primarily impacted by the company's financial difficulties and market performance.

Positive Factors

Clinical Study

The company's pivotal pre-term birth diagnostic study, PRIME, was stopped early by the DSMB due to favorable efficacy.

Commercialization Strategy

SERA's commercialization plans for its PreTRM test are focused on addressing a high unmet need, with impactful clinical data supporting its potential.

Market Opportunity

The market cap of $150M is considered attractive for investors with a longer-term perspective, given the >$2B US total addressable market and a differentiated test.

Negative Factors

Revenue Forecast

Revenue for 2024 is trimmed to $120K on low PreTRM take up ahead of reimbursement.

Revenue Performance

The financial results were uneventful with revenue of $29K versus the expected $75K.

Sera Prognostics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sera Prognostics (SERA) is a biotechnology company specializing in the development and commercialization of innovative diagnostic tests that predict the risk of premature birth. By leveraging advanced proteomic technology, Sera Prognostics aims to improve maternal and neonatal health by providing physicians with critical information to manage pregnancies more effectively. Their core product, the PreTRM Test, is designed to assess a mother's risk of preterm birth, enabling targeted interventions that can improve outcomes for both mothers and babies.

How the Company Makes Money

Sera Prognostics generates revenue primarily through the sale of its PreTRM Test to healthcare providers, hospitals, and clinics. The test is marketed as a tool for early risk assessment, allowing healthcare professionals to identify and manage at-risk pregnancies more effectively. Revenue is also supported by partnerships with insurance companies and healthcare payers, which may cover the cost of the test for eligible patients. Additionally, Sera Prognostics collaborates with research institutions and pharmaceutical companies to explore further applications of their diagnostic technology, potentially opening additional revenue streams through licensing or strategic alliances.

Sera Prognostics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Sera Prognostics shows consistent revenue growth but faces significant profitability challenges. The income statement reveals negative margins due to high costs relative to revenue. The balance sheet indicates a strong equity position with low debt, yet return on equity is negative due to losses. Cash flow analysis highlights negative cash flows, reflecting operational struggles.

Income Statement

Sera Prognostics shows consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from $25,000 in 2020 to $94,000 in TTM. However, the company faces significant challenges with profitability. The gross profit margin is negative, indicating that costs of goods sold are higher than revenues. Net profit margins are also deeply negative, reflecting substantial net losses. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are significantly negative, pointing to operational inefficiencies and high expenses relative to revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a relatively strong equity position with a positive stockholders' equity of $54.65 million in the TTM, compared to significant deficits in earlier years. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, reflecting limited reliance on debt financing, which is a positive sign of financial stability. However, the equity ratio has decreased over time, indicating a reduction in equity relative to total assets. Return on equity remains negative due to ongoing net losses.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates negative operating and free cash flows, reflecting the company's struggle to generate cash from operations. Despite some improvements in free cash flow over the TTM period, the overall cash flow picture highlights cash burn issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, underscoring persistent operational challenges. Free cash flow to net income is also negative, suggesting that the company is not converting its net earnings into cash effectively.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Income Statement		Total Revenue
94.00K	306.00K	268.00K	82.00K	25.00K	36.00K
	Gross Profit
-736.00K	96.00K	75.00K	45.00K	14.00K	18.00K
	EBIT
-35.94M	-39.82M	-45.65M	-35.40M	-17.97M	-16.56M
	EBITDA
-31.24M	-35.29M	-42.91M	-33.60M	-17.11M	-13.60M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-32.24M	-36.24M	-44.25M	-36.23M	-21.61M	-20.44M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
21.39M	49.08M	82.70M	105.11M	13.53M	21.39M
	Total Assets
0.00	95.44M	116.33M	147.03M	14.80M	23.26M
	Total Debt
0.00	1.86M	2.31M	128.00K	8.67M	9.31M
	Net Debt
21.39M	-2.02M	-27.57M	-58.80M	-4.86M	-12.07M
	Total Liabilities
0.00	25.28M	17.39M	8.46M	140.37M	129.88M
	Stockholders Equity
10.96M	70.16M	98.94M	138.56M	-125.57M	-106.62M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-15.75M	-27.32M	-35.40M	-32.94M	-17.02M	-19.43M
	Operating Cash Flow
-14.69M	-27.19M	-34.61M	-31.64M	-16.87M	-19.32M
	Investing Cash Flow
4.73M	438.00K	5.55M	-82.56M	-149.00K	-6.00K
	Financing Cash Flow
2.99M	752.00K	5.00K	159.59M	9.16M	33.05M

Sera Prognostics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.35
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SERA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.43, below the 50-day MA of 3.85, and below the 200-day MA of 6.36, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SERA.

Sera Prognostics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
XGN	56 Neutral	$76.25M	―	-93.78%	―	5.89%	38.12%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$5.31B	3.33	-39.82%	2.92%	17.95%	1.84%
MDXH	51 Neutral	$79.20M	―	-345.31%	―	28.29%	23.11%
ACRS	46 Neutral	$119.11M	―	-84.46%	―	-40.09%	-18.67%
BDSX	42 Neutral	$71.53M	―	-337.30%	―	45.30%	45.67%
SERA	36 Underperform	$126.17M	―	-55.78%	―	-74.84%	14.63%
VNRX	34 Underperform	$48.36M	―	138.92%	―	59.10%	37.59%

Sera Prognostics Corporate Events

Sera Prognostics Announces $50 Million Public Offering

On February 10, 2025, Sera Prognostics announced a public offering of its Class A common stock and pre-funded warrants, expecting to raise approximately $50 million. The proceeds are intended to enhance U.S. commercial infrastructure, prepare for EU expansion, and support studies for the PreTRM test, with a potential FDA submission for broader approval.

Sera Prognostics Highlights PreTRM Test in Investor Update

On January 31, 2025, Sera Prognostics updated its corporate investor presentation to reflect findings from the PRIME study, which emphasizes the significant clinical and economic challenges posed by preterm births. The company’s PreTRM test, validated for use between 18 to 20 weeks of gestation, offers a predictive assessment of preterm birth risk, potentially reducing costs associated with neonatal care. This advancement positions Sera Prognostics as a leader in addressing a crucial healthcare issue, with implications for improved neonatal outcomes and reduced healthcare expenditures.