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Rayonier Inc. REIT (RYN)
NYSE:RYN

Rayonier (RYN) AI Stock Analysis

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RYRayonier
(NYSE:RYN)
67Neutral
Rayonier's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and attractive valuation, balanced by technical uncertainties and cautious future guidance. The company's low leverage and strategic asset management are strengths, whereas cash flow challenges and external risks in the timber sector are key concerns.

Rayonier (RYN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Rayonier Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRayonier Inc. (RYN) is a leading timberland real estate investment trust (REIT) with a diverse portfolio of timberlands across the United States and New Zealand. The company primarily focuses on the sustainable management and sale of timber, leveraging its extensive land holdings to support a range of forest products industries. Rayonier is committed to responsible forestry practices, ensuring environmental stewardship while supplying raw materials for paper, packaging, and other wood-based products.
How the Company Makes MoneyRayonier generates revenue through several key streams, primarily centered around its timberland holdings. The company earns income by selling timber directly from its forests, either through lump-sum contracts or pay-as-cut agreements. Additionally, Rayonier leases its land for recreational use and other purposes, such as hunting and conservation. The company also derives earnings from its real estate operations, which involve selling parcels of land for development or conservation. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures in both domestic and international markets further enhance its revenue potential, allowing Rayonier to capitalize on global demand for wood and forest products.

Rayonier Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Rayonier's financial performance is strong in terms of revenue growth and profitability, with notable income statement results. However, challenges in cash flow management and a slight decline in the equity ratio pose risks. Overall, the financial position remains strong but with areas for improvement.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Rayonier demonstrates strong income statement performance with consistent revenue growth, evident from a 19.5% increase from 2023 to 2024. The company maintains solid profitability, with a gross profit margin of 37.9% and a net profit margin of 28.4% in 2024. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins remained flat at 31.9%, indicating stable operational efficiency. Continued revenue growth combined with robust margins contributes to a high score.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet of Rayonier reveals a healthy equity position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05 in 2024, indicating low leverage. The return on equity (ROE) improved to 20.3% in 2024, reflecting effective utilization of equity. However, the equity ratio decreased slightly to 50.9%, suggesting a minor decrease in the proportion of equity financing. The company's low debt levels and improved ROE are positive, though the declining equity ratio is a concern.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Rayonier's cash flow statement shows challenges, with negative free cash flow reported in 2024 due to high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unavailable, creating uncertainty in operating cash efficiency. Despite this, the company previously demonstrated positive free cash flow, indicating potential for recovery.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.26B1.06B909.10M1.11B859.20M
Gross Profit
478.16M296.66M220.80M313.50M146.70M
EBIT
402.47M211.28M165.80M269.80M74.40M
EBITDA
553.20M378.19M303.84M411.31M275.73M
Net Income Common Stockholders
359.15M173.49M107.08M210.50M37.08M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
323.16M207.70M114.30M362.20M84.60M
Total Assets
3.47B3.65B3.79B3.64B3.73B
Total Debt
95.74M1.45B1.60B1.46B1.46B
Net Debt
-227.42M1.25B1.49B1.10B1.38B
Total Liabilities
1.64B1.69B1.80B1.69B1.74B
Stockholders Equity
1.77B1.86B1.87B1.77B1.47B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
159.06M202.87M-264.10M70.00M113.00M
Operating Cash Flow
261.59M298.38M269.20M325.10M204.20M
Investing Cash Flow
354.01M124.09M-516.40M-26.30M-213.60M
Financing Cash Flow
-479.36M-328.87M-4.60M-16.30M27.00M

Rayonier Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price26.89
Price Trends
50DMA
26.14
Positive
100DMA
27.54
Negative
200DMA
27.69
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.22
Negative
RSI
56.54
Neutral
STOCH
76.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RYN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 26.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.18, above the 50-day MA of 26.14, and below the 200-day MA of 27.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for RYN.

Rayonier Risk Analysis

Rayonier disclosed 18 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rayonier reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Rayonier Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
PCPCH
70
Outperform
$3.71B170.661.04%3.82%3.71%-64.41%
RYRYN
67
Neutral
$4.21B11.2719.79%4.17%19.50%106.12%
WYWY
67
Neutral
$22.34B56.683.97%2.59%-7.17%-52.62%
EXEXP
66
Neutral
$7.16B15.3733.51%0.47%0.64%-1.15%
LPLPX
64
Neutral
$6.63B16.0926.08%1.10%13.95%138.97%
BXBXC
62
Neutral
$620.21M12.478.29%-5.86%16.49%
61
Neutral
$4.91B18.99-3.12%7.77%6.71%-19.69%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RYN
Rayonier
26.89
-4.99
-15.65%
BXC
Bluelinx Holdings
77.08
-42.69
-35.64%
EXP
Eagle Materials
220.79
-35.19
-13.75%
LPX
Louisiana-Pacific
93.76
17.68
23.24%
PCH
PotlatchDeltic
46.24
0.70
1.54%
WY
Weyerhaeuser
30.22
-3.95
-11.56%

Rayonier Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 5, 2025 | % Change Since: 4.51% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Rayonier Inc.'s earnings call highlighted strong financial performance in 2024, with achievements in real estate and strategic timberland dispositions that improved leverage and shareholder returns. However, challenges in the timber segments, particularly due to external factors like Hurricane Helene, and a conservative 2025 outlook, indicate areas of concern. The sentiment is balanced, with significant achievements being offset by ongoing challenges and a cautious future outlook.
Highlights
Exceeded Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA Guidance
Rayonier Inc. delivered a full-year adjusted EBITDA of $299 million, roughly 3% above the high end of their prior guidance range and slightly above the prior year.
Strong Real Estate Segment Performance
The Real Estate segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $63 million in the fourth quarter, up $10 million from the prior year period, driven by high premiums above Timberland value and strong sales.
Significant Timberland Dispositions
Successfully closed on $495 million of large dispositions, totaling approximately 200,000 acres during the fourth quarter, reducing leverage and returning capital to shareholders.
New Zealand Timber Segment Improvement
Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA increased by $8 million year-over-year due to favorable foreign exchange impacts, higher volume, higher net stumpage realizations, and lower costs.
Reduction in Net Leverage
Net leverage reduced to below three times, returning over $110 million of capital to shareholders in the form of cash special dividends and share repurchases.
Lowlights
Southern Timber Segment Challenges
Despite increased non-timber income, the Southern Timber segment faced a 3% decline in harvest volumes and a 15% decrease in weighted average net stumpage realizations due to the impact of salvage volume on the market following Hurricane Helene.
Pacific Northwest Timber Segment Decline
Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was flat year-over-year with a 3% decrease in harvest volumes and a 9% decrease in average delivered log prices.
Lower Carbon Credit Income in New Zealand
Non-timber income in New Zealand decreased by $2 million year-over-year, reflecting a lower volume of carbon credits sold and modestly lower pricing.
Outlook for 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Decline
Providing full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $270 million for 2025, reflecting a slight decline at the midpoint relative to 2024 adjusted EBITDA.
Impact of Dispositions on 2025 Outlook
The 2025 outlook reflects the completed dispositions, reducing expectations on the real estate segment following extraordinarily strong results in 2024.
Company Guidance
In the fourth quarter and full year 2024 conference call, Rayonier Inc. provided guidance for 2025, projecting full-year adjusted EBITDA of $270 to $300 million, which is slightly below 2024's adjusted EBITDA of $299 million. The guidance reflects the impact of dispositions completed in the fourth quarter of 2024 and modestly lower expectations for the real estate segment. The company anticipates US Southern Timber segment harvest volumes of 6.9 to 7.1 million tons with modestly lower pine stumpage realizations due to salvage volume impacts from Hurricane Helene. In the Pacific Northwest, harvest volumes are expected to be approximately 900,000 tons, with anticipated modest increases in log pricing. New Zealand Timber segment is expected to see improved pricing dynamics and increased carbon credit sales, with adjusted EBITDA projected at $54 to $60 million. The real estate segment is expected to maintain strong demand, with a projected adjusted EBITDA of $86 to $96 million. Rayonier Inc. remains cautiously optimistic about timber prices improving alongside market demand and plans to capitalize on opportunities in land-based solutions, particularly in solar and carbon capture, to drive future cash flow growth.

Rayonier Corporate Events

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rayonier Declares Special Dividend Amidst Timberland Sales
Positive
Dec 2, 2024

Rayonier Inc. has declared a one-time special dividend of $1.80 per share, payable in cash and common shares to shareholders as of December 12, 2024. This move is part of their strategy following significant timberland sales, aiming to align capital structure and shareholder value. The dividend will be issued on January 30, 2025, with shareholders given options on the form of payout.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rayonier Sells Timberland to Strengthen Financial Position
Positive
Nov 6, 2024

Rayonier has announced the sale of approximately 200,000 acres of timberland in Oklahoma and Washington for $495 million. These transactions aim to capitalize on the valuation gap between public and private markets, enhancing the company’s financial position by reducing debt and improving capital allocation. This strategic move aligns with Rayonier’s focus on markets with strong cash flow potential, ensuring positive long-term growth prospects.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.