Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.00B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 16.41M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.29
• Revenue Growth: 64.98%
• EPS Growth: -10.52%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 90
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): -0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 461,432,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 20,834,305
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 16,406,714
• PEG Ratio: 16.52
• Price to Book (P/B): 22.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -66.95
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $28.55
• Price Target Upside: 13.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $22.50 ▼( -10.61% Downside)

Rocket Lab USA's overall score is driven by strong revenue growth and positive developments from its earnings call and corporate events. However, significant challenges remain, particularly in profitability, cash flow generation, and valuation, which weigh down the score. The technical analysis presents mixed signals, reflecting uncertainty in short-term price movements.

Positive Factors

Earnings

RKLB reported solid 1Q results with revenue and AEBITDA above consensus.

Government Contracts

The announcement further supports the case that RKLB is a trusted supplier to the government, providing stability as government customers are generally more reliable and sustainable than their commercial counterparts.

Growth Opportunities

Rocket Lab and Stoke Space were added to Phase 3 Lane 1 of the National Security Space Launch contract, expanding opportunities in national security-related launches.

Negative Factors

Neutron Development

Neutron has a history of delays and cost overruns, with current attention on large structures.

Revenue Guidance

2Q revenue and AEBITDA guidance is below consensus as the company ramps its maiden Neutron launch.

Space Force Strategy

The possibility of the Space Force forgoing the construction of the SDA Transport Layer in favor of acquiring services from companies like SpaceX poses a risk to RKLB's current and future contracts.

Rocket Lab USA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rocket Lab USA, Inc., a space company, provides launch services and space systems solutions for the space and defense industries. The company provides launch services, spacecraft engineering and design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft manufacturing, and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions; and constellation management services, as well as designs and manufactures small and medium-class rockets. It also designs, manufactures, and sells Electron small orbital launch vehicles and the Photon satellite platforms, as well as developing the Neutron 8-ton payload class launch vehicle; conducts remote launch activities; and designs and manufactures a range of components and subsystems for the Photon family of spacecraft and broader merchant spacecraft components. The company serves commercial, aerospace prime contractors, and government customers. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Rocket Lab USA generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is its commercial launch services, where it charges clients for deploying their satellites into orbit using the Electron rocket. Additionally, Rocket Lab provides spacecraft components and systems, including satellite buses and propulsion systems, which are sold to various aerospace and defense clients. The company's Photon platform enables Rocket Lab to offer end-to-end space systems, including satellite operations and data services, contributing further to its revenue. Rocket Lab also engages in government contracts and partnerships, leveraging its expertise in space technology to support national defense and scientific missions, thus diversifying its income sources.

Rocket Lab USA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Rocket Lab USA demonstrates strong revenue growth, a positive indication of market demand and business expansion. However, profitability and cash flow generation remain significant challenges. High leverage and negative returns on equity add to financial risks, suggesting the need for strategic improvements in cost management and operational efficiency to achieve sustainable profitability.

Income Statement

Rocket Lab USA has shown significant revenue growth, with revenues increasing from $244.6 million in 2023 to $436.2 million in 2024, a growth of approximately 78.4%. However, the company continues to face challenges with profitability as indicated by negative net profit margins (-43.6% in 2024) and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. Despite strong revenue growth, the consistent losses suggest difficulty in achieving operational efficiency and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 1.11 in 2024, indicating significant leverage. While stockholders' equity has decreased over time, the equity ratio remains relatively low at 32.3% in 2024. The Return on Equity is negative due to consistent net losses, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. Overall, the balance sheet shows a risky capital structure with high leverage and negative equity growth.

Cash Flow

Rocket Lab's cash flow statement shows improvement in free cash flow from -$153.6 million in 2023 to -$115.9 million in 2024. However, the company still reports negative operating cash flow and a negative free cash flow to net income ratio, indicating challenges in cash generation from operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative due to operating losses, which poses a risk to financial sustainability.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
436.21M	244.59M	211.00M	62.24M	35.16M
	Gross Profit
116.15M	51.41M	18.99M	-1.89M	-11.82M
	EBIT
-189.80M	-177.92M	-135.20M	-102.05M	-54.95M
	EBITDA
-151.80M	-148.78M	-105.26M	-91.20M	-44.59M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-190.18M	-182.57M	-135.94M	-117.32M	-55.01M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
418.99M	244.77M	471.79M	690.96M	52.79M
	Total Assets
1.18B	941.21M	989.12M	980.85M	187.87M
	Total Debt
424.37M	176.69M	152.78M	128.43M	27.30M
	Net Debt
153.33M	14.17M	-89.73M	-562.53M	-25.49M
	Total Liabilities
801.89M	386.67M	315.92M	282.40M	354.58M
	Stockholders Equity
382.45M	554.54M	673.21M	698.45M	-166.71M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-115.98M	-153.57M	-148.95M	-97.49M	-52.88M
	Operating Cash Flow
-48.89M	-98.87M	-106.54M	-71.79M	-27.76M
	Investing Cash Flow
-98.33M	12.02M	-346.08M	-92.13M	-37.33M
	Financing Cash Flow
256.68M	7.37M	2.04M	799.94M	21.48M

Rocket Lab USA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 25.17
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RKLB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.10, above the 50-day MA of 20.58, and above the 200-day MA of 17.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RKLB.

Rocket Lab USA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DCO	75 Outperform	$1.03B	29.21	5.25%	―	3.02%	95.76%
AVAV	72 Outperform	$7.73B	142.63	3.94%	―	5.21%	―
Sector *	64 Neutral	$4.46B	11.94	5.17%	249.36%	4.00%	-12.35%
RKLB	56 Neutral	$12.00B	―	-45.38%	―	64.98%	-10.52%
RDW	51 Neutral	$947.35M	―	-451.56%	―	1.36%	-213.86%
SPCE	48 Neutral	$167.55M	―	-95.46%	―	-34.33%	52.30%
EVEX	43 Neutral	$1.38B	―	-148.98%	―	―	-2.94%

Rocket Lab USA Corporate Events

Rocket Lab USA Announces Holding Company Reorganization

On May 8, 2025, Rocket Lab USA announced a holding company reorganization to be effective by June 1, 2025, aiming to create a more efficient structure for growth and risk management. This reorganization will involve a tax-free merger, with Rocket Lab Corporation becoming the successor issuer, and is expected to streamline operations and align with U.S. Government security requirements. Additionally, Rocket Lab reported strong financial results for Q1 2025, with a 32% year-on-year revenue growth to $123 million, and provided a positive outlook for Q2 2025, highlighting its resilience and strategic expansions into new markets and acquisitions.

Rocket Lab USA Announces $500M Equity Offering Plan

On March 11, 2025, Rocket Lab USA announced the filing of a prospectus supplement with the SEC for an ‘at the market’ equity offering program, allowing the company to offer and sell up to $500 million in common stock. The proceeds are intended to fund future growth, including potential acquisitions like the announced intent to acquire Mynaric, and for general corporate purposes. This move is expected to impact Rocket Lab’s operations by providing financial flexibility for expansion and strategic acquisitions, potentially enhancing its position in the space industry.