Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) Risk Analysis

Stockholder activism, which takes many forms and arises in a variety of situations, has been increasingly prevalent. Stock price declines may also increase our vulnerability to unsolicited approaches. If we become the subject of certain forms of stockholder activism, such as proxy contests or hostile bids, the attention of our management and our board of directors may be diverted from execution of our strategy. Such stockholder activism could give rise to perceived uncertainties as to our future strategy, adversely affect our relationships with business partners and make it more difficult to attract and retain qualified personnel. Also, we may incur substantial costs, including significant legal fees and other expenses, related to activist stockholder matters. Our stock price could be subject to significant fluctuation or otherwise be adversely affected by the events, risks and uncertainties of any stockholder activism.

Our ability to generate significant revenue from product sales depends on our ability, alone or with strategic collaboration partners, to successfully commercialize our products and to complete the development of, and obtain the regulatory and marketing approvals necessary to commercialize, our product candidates. Our ability to generate substantial future revenue from product sales, including named patient sales, depends heavily on our success in many areas, including, but not limited to: - obtaining regulatory and marketing approvals with broad indications for product candidates for which we complete clinical studies;- developing a sustainable and scalable manufacturing process for our products and any approved product candidates and establishing and maintaining supply and manufacturing relationships with third parties that can conduct the processes and provide adequate (in amount and quality) product supply to support market demand for our products and product candidates, if approved;- launching and commercializing our products and product candidates for which we obtain regulatory and marketing approval, either directly or with a collaborator or distributor;- obtaining market acceptance of our products and product candidates as viable treatment options;- obtaining adequate market share, reimbursement and pricing for our products and product candidates;- our ability to sell our products and product candidates on a named patient basis or through an equivalent mechanism and the amount of revenue generated from such sales;- our ability to find patients so they can be diagnosed and begin receiving treatment;- addressing any competing technological and market developments;- negotiating favorable terms, including commercial rights, in any collaboration, licensing, or other arrangements into which we may enter, any amendments thereto or extensions thereof;- maintaining, protecting, and expanding our portfolio of intellectual property rights, including patents, trade secrets, and know-how; and - attracting, hiring, and retaining qualified personnel. If the number of our addressable rare disease patients is not as significant as we estimate, the indication approved by regulatory authorities is narrower than we expect, or the reasonably accepted population for treatment is narrowed by competition, physician choice, or treatment guidelines, or any other reasons, we may not generate significant revenue from sales of our products, even if they receive regulatory approval.

Our target patient populations are small, and accordingly the pricing, coverage, and reimbursement of our products and product candidates, if approved, must be adequate to support our commercial infrastructure. Our per-patient prices must be sufficient to recover our development and manufacturing costs and potentially achieve profitability. We expect the cost of a single administration of gene therapy products, such as those we are developing, to be substantial, when and if they achieve regulatory approval. Accordingly, the availability and adequacy of coverage and reimbursement by governmental and private payors are essential for most patients to afford expensive treatments such as ours, assuming approval. Sales of our products and product candidates, if approved, will depend substantially, both domestically and abroad, on the extent to which their costs will be paid for by health maintenance, managed care, pharmacy benefit, and similar healthcare management organizations, or reimbursed by government authorities, private health insurers, and other payors. If coverage and reimbursement are not available, are available only to limited levels, or are not available on a timely basis, we may not be able to successfully commercialize our products and product candidates, if approved. For example, deteriorating economic conditions and political instability in certain Latin American countries and in Turkey continue to cause us to experience significant delays in receiving approval for reimbursement for our products and consequently impact our product commercialization timelines in such regions. Even if coverage is provided, the approved reimbursement amount may not be high enough to allow us to establish or maintain pricing sufficient to sustain our overall enterprise. In addition, we do not know the reimbursement rates until we are ready to market the product and we actually negotiate the rates. There is significant uncertainty related to the insurance coverage and reimbursement of newly approved products. In the U.S., the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, or CMS, an agency within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, decides whether and to what extent a new drug will be covered and reimbursed under Medicare. Private payors tend to follow the coverage reimbursement policies established by CMS to a substantial degree. It is difficult to predict what CMS or private payors will decide with respect to reimbursement for products such as ours, especially our gene therapy product candidates as there is a limited body of established practices and precedents for gene therapy products. Outside the U.S., international operations are generally subject to extensive governmental price controls and other market regulations, and we believe the increasing emphasis on cost-containment initiatives in Europe, Canada, and other countries will put pressure on the pricing and usage of our products and product candidates. In many countries, the prices of medical products are subject to varying price control mechanisms as part of national health systems. Other countries allow companies to fix their own prices for medicinal products, but monitor and control company profits. Additional foreign price controls or other changes in pricing regulation could restrict the amount that we are able to charge for our product candidates. Accordingly, in markets outside the U.S., the reimbursement for our products may be reduced compared with the U.S. and may be insufficient to generate commercially reasonable revenue and profits. The timing to complete the negotiation process in each country is highly uncertain, and in some countries outside of the United States, we expect the process to exceed several months. Even if a price can be negotiated, countries frequently request or require reductions to the price and other concessions over time, including retrospective "clawback" price reductions. Additionally, member states of the EU have regularly imposed new or additional cost containment measures for pharmaceuticals such as volume discounts, cost caps, clawbacks and free products for a portion of the expected therapy period. For example, in France, we estimate clawback reserves on Dojolvi and Evkeeza based on current regulations, our estimate of pricing on approval of Dojolvi and Evkeeza and other factors. However, if pricing is approved at levels lower than estimated, if at all, or if there are further changes in the regulatory framework, we may be required to pay back amounts higher than clawback reserves and reverse revenue that has been previously recorded. Moreover, increasing efforts by governmental and third-party payors in the U.S. and abroad to cap or reduce healthcare costs may cause such organizations to limit both coverage and the level of reimbursement for new products and, as a result, they may not cover or provide adequate payment for our products and product candidates. We expect to experience pricing pressures in connection with the sale of any of our products and product candidates due to the trend toward managed healthcare, the increasing influence of health maintenance organizations, additional legislative changes, including the impact from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, and statements by elected officials. For example, proposals have been discussed to tie U.S. drug prices to the cost in other countries, several states in the U.S. have introduced legislation to require pharmaceutical companies to disclose their costs to justify the prices of their products. Drug pricing is also expected to remain a focus for the current Presidential Administration and Congress. The downward pressure on healthcare costs in general, and with respect to prescription drugs, surgical procedures, and other treatments in particular, has become very intense. As a result, increasingly high barriers are being erected to the entry of new products.

We may acquire or invest in businesses or products that we believe could complement or expand our business or otherwise offer growth opportunities. For example, we acquired Dimension in November 2017 and GeneTx in July 2022. The pursuit of potential acquisitions or investments may divert the attention of management and may cause us to incur various costs and expenses in identifying, investigating, and pursuing them, whether or not they are consummated. We may not be able to identify desirable acquisitions or investments or be successful in completing or realizing anticipated benefits from such transactions. We may experience difficulties in assimilating the personnel, operations and products of the acquired companies, management's attention may be diverted from other business concerns and we may potentially lose key employees of the acquired company. If we are unable to successfully or timely integrate the operations of acquired companies with our business, we may incur unanticipated liabilities and be unable to realize the revenue growth, synergies and other anticipated benefits resulting from the acquisition, and our business, results of operations and financial condition could be materially and adversely affected. The value of our investments in other companies or businesses may also fluctuate significantly and impact our operating results quarter to quarter or year to year. We purchased 7,825,797 shares of common stock of Solid in October 2020. Our investment in Solid is being accounted for at fair value, as the fair value is readily determinable. As a result, increases or decreases in the stock price of equity investments have resulted in and will result in accompanying changes in the fair value of our investments, and cause substantial volatility in, our operating results for the reporting period. As the fair value of our investment in Solid is dependent on the stock price of Solid, which has recently seen wide fluctuations, the value of our investments and the impact on our operating results may similarly fluctuate significantly from quarter to quarter and year to year such that period-to-period comparisons may not be a good indication of the future value of the investments and our future operating results.

Our future success is dependent on our ability to successfully commercialize our products and develop, obtain regulatory approval for, and then successfully commercialize one or more product candidates. We are not permitted to market or promote any of our product candidates before we receive regulatory approval from the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities. We have only obtained regulatory approval for three products that we have developed, and it is possible that none of our existing product candidates or any product candidates we may seek to develop in the future will ever obtain regulatory approval. Further, as the clinical trial requirements of regulatory authorities and the criteria these regulators use to determine the safety and efficacy of a product candidate vary substantially according to the type, complexity, novelty and intended use and market of the product candidates, the regulatory approval process for novel product candidates, such as our gene therapy product candidates, can be more expensive and take longer than for other product candidates, leading to fewer product approvals. To date, very few gene therapy products have received regulatory approval in the U.S. or Europe. The regulatory framework and oversight over development of gene therapy products has evolved and may continue to evolve in the future. Within the FDA, the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, or CBER, regulates gene therapy products. Within the CBER, the review of gene therapy and related products is consolidated in the Office of Cellular, Tissue and Gene Therapies, and the FDA has established the Cellular, Tissue and Gene Therapies Advisory Committee to advise CBER on its reviews. The CBER works closely with the National Institutes of Health, or NIH. The FDA and the NIH have published guidance with respect to the development and submission of gene therapy protocols. For example, in January 2020, the FDA issued final guidance to set forth the framework for the development, review and approval of gene therapies. The final guidance pertains to the development of gene therapies for the treatment of specific disease categories, including rare diseases, and to manufacturing and long-term follow up issues relevant to gene therapy, among other topics. At the same time the FDA issued guidance describing the FDA's approach for determining whether two gene therapy products were the same or different for the purpose of assessing orphan drug exclusivity. Within the European Medicines Agency, or EMA, special rules apply to gene therapy and related products as they are considered advanced therapy medicinal products, or ATMPs. Pursuant to the ATMP Regulation, the Committee on Advanced Therapies, or CAT, is responsible in conjunction with the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use, or CHMP, for the evaluation of ATMPs. The CHMP and CAT are also responsible for providing guidelines on ATMPs. These guidelines provide additional guidance on the factors that the EMA will consider in relation to the development and evaluation of ATMPs and include, among other things, the preclinical studies required to characterize ATMPs. The manufacturing and control information that should be submitted in a MAA; and post-approval measures required to monitor patients and evaluate the long-term efficacy and potential adverse reactions of ATMPs. Although such guidelines are not legally binding, compliance with them is often necessary to gain and maintain approval for product candidates. In addition to the mandatory risk-management plan, or RMP, the holder of a marketing authorization for an ATMP must put in place and maintain a system to ensure that each individual product and its starting and raw materials, including all substances coming into contact with the cells or tissues it may contain, can be traced through the sourcing, manufacturing, packaging, storage, transport, and delivery to the relevant healthcare institution where the product is used. To obtain regulatory approval in the U.S. and other jurisdictions, we must comply with numerous and varying requirements regarding safety, efficacy, chemistry, manufacturing and controls, clinical studies (including good clinical practices), commercial sales, pricing, and distribution of our product candidates, as described in "Item 1. Business – Government Regulation" of our Annual Report. Even if we are successful in obtaining approval in one jurisdiction, we cannot ensure that we will obtain approval in any other jurisdictions. In addition, approval policies, regulations, positions of the regulatory agencies on study design and/or endpoints, or the type and amount of clinical data necessary to gain approval may change during the course of a product candidate's clinical development, which may cause delays in the approval or the decision not to approve an application. Communications with the regulatory agencies during the approval process are also unpredictable; favorable communications early in the process do not ensure that approval will be obtained and unfavorable communications early on do not guarantee that approval will be denied. Applications for our product candidates could fail to receive regulatory approval, or could be delayed in receiving regulatory approval, for many reasons, including but not limited to the following: - regulatory authorities may disagree with the design, implementation, or conduct of our clinical studies;- regulatory authorities may change their guidance or requirements for a development program for a product candidate;- the population studied in the clinical program may not be sufficiently broad or representative to assure efficacy and safety in the full population for which we seek approval;- regulatory authorities may disagree with our interpretation of data from nonclinical studies or clinical studies;- the data collected from clinical studies of our product candidates may not be sufficient to support the submission of an NDA, or biologics license application, or BLA, or other submission or to obtain regulatory approval;- we may be unable to demonstrate to regulatory authorities that a product candidate's risk-benefit ratio for its proposed indication is acceptable;- regulatory authorities may fail to approve the manufacturing processes, test procedures and specifications, or facilities used to manufacture our clinical and commercial supplies;- the U.S. government may be shut down, which could delay the FDA;- the FDA may be delayed in responding to our applications or submissions due to competing priorities or limited resources, including as a result of the lack of FDA funding or personnel;- failure of our nonclinical or clinical development to comply with an agreed upon Pediatric Investigational Plan, or PIP, which details the designs and completion timelines for nonclinical and clinical studies and is a condition of marketing authorization in the EU; and - the approval policies or regulations of regulatory authorities may significantly change in a manner rendering our clinical data insufficient for approval. Furthermore, the disease states we are evaluating often do not have clear regulatory paths for approval and/or do not have validated outcome measures. In these circumstances, we work closely with the regulatory authorities to define the approval path and may have to qualify outcome measures as part of our development programs. Additionally, many of the disease states we are targeting are highly heterogeneous in nature, which may impact our ability to determine the treatment benefit of our potential therapies. This lengthy and uncertain approval process, as well as the unpredictability of the clinical and nonclinical studies, may result in our failure to obtain regulatory approval to market any of our product candidates, or delayed regulatory approval.

We have been, and may in the future become, party to lawsuits including, without limitation, actions, claims and proceedings in the ordinary course of business relating to our directors, officers, stockholders, intellectual property, and employment matters and policies, which will cause us to incur legal fees and other costs related thereto, including potential expenses for the reimbursement of legal fees of officers and directors under indemnification obligations. For example, we have been defending a lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland by the Estate of Henrietta Lacks alleging unjust enrichment arising from our receipt and use of HeLa cells. The expense of defending against such claims or litigation may be significant and there can be no assurance that we will be successful in any defense. Further, the amount of time that may be required to resolve such claims or lawsuits is unpredictable, and these actions may divert management's attention from the day-to-day operations of our business, which could adversely affect our business, results of operations, and cash flows. Litigation is subject to inherent uncertainties, and an adverse result in such matters that may arise from time to time could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition.

We completed construction of our gene therapy manufacturing facility in Bedford, Massachusetts in 2023. Prior to construction of this facility, we did not previously have experience as a company in operating our own manufacturing facility and at this point, we cannot assure that the facility will be fully utilized at all times, particularly as we have only recently commenced our manufacturing operations. Our limited experience may contribute to unacceptable or inconsistent product quality success rates and yields, and we may be unable to maintain adequate quality control, quality assurance, and qualified personnel. We have incurred and will continue to incur significant expenses and costs to operate the facility, which may be subject to significant impairment if our gene therapy programs are unsuccessful. Before we can begin to commercially manufacture any of our product candidates at the facility, we must obtain regulatory approval from the FDA for our manufacturing processes and for the facility. In order to obtain approval, we will need to ensure that all of our processes, quality systems, methods, equipment, policies and procedures are compliant with cGMP. Until recently, few gene therapy products manufactured by a cGMP gene therapy manufacturing facility in the U.S. had received approval from the FDA; therefore, the time frame required for us to obtain such approval is uncertain. The cGMP requirements govern quality control of the manufacturing process and documentation policies and procedures. In complying with cGMP, we will be obligated to spend time, money and effort on production, record keeping and quality control to assure that the product meets applicable specifications and other requirements. If we fail to comply with these requirements, we would be subject to possible regulatory action and may not be permitted to sell any products that we may develop. As we seek to optimize and operate our manufacturing process at the facility, we will likely face technical and scientific challenges, considerable capital costs and potential difficulty in recruiting and hiring experienced, qualified personnel at the facility which could result in delays in our production or difficulties in maintaining compliance with applicable regulatory requirements. We may also experience unexpected technical, regulatory, safety, quality or operational issues during manufacturing campaigns. As we expand our commercial footprint to multiple geographies, we may establish multiple manufacturing facilities, which may lead to regulatory delays or prove costly. Even if we are successful, we cannot assure that such additional capacity will be required or that our investment will be recouped. Further, our manufacturing capabilities could be affected by cost-overruns, unexpected delays, equipment failures, lack of capacity, labor shortages, natural disasters, power failures, program failures, actual or threatened public health emergencies, and numerous other factors that could prevent us from realizing the intended benefits of our manufacturing strategy.

We acquire most of the drug substances and drug products for our products and product candidates from single sources. If any single source supplier breaches an agreement with us, or terminates the agreement in response to an alleged breach by us, ceases operations, is acquired, enters into exclusive arrangements with a competitor or otherwise becomes unable or unwilling to fulfill its supply obligations, we would not be able to manufacture and distribute the product or product candidate until a qualified alternative supplier is identified, which could significantly impair our ability to commercialize such product or delay the development of such product candidate. For example, the drug substance and drug product for Crysvita and Evkeeza are made, respectively, by KKC pursuant to a license and collaboration agreement and Regeneron pursuant to a supply agreement. The drug substance and drug product for Mepsevii are currently manufactured by Rentschler under a commercial supply and services agreement, accompanying purchase orders, and other agreements. Pharmaceutical-grade drug substance for Dojolvi is manufactured by IOI Oleo pursuant to a supply agreement, and the drug product for Dojolvi was prepared by Haupt Pharma AG, pursuant to a master services agreement. Single source suppliers are also used for our gene therapy programs. Haupt Pharma closed its Wolfrathshausen, Germany site, which produces the Dojolvi drug product, at the end of 2023. As such, we are in the process of qualifying and conducting transfer activities to an alternative supplier. We cannot provide assurances that qualifying alternate sources, if available at all, for the Dojolvi drug product or for any of our other drug substances and drug products, and establishing relationships with such sources would not result in significant expense, supply disruptions or delay in the commercialization of our products or the development of our product candidates. Additionally, we may not be able to enter into supply arrangements with an alternative supplier on commercially reasonable terms or at all. The terms of any new agreement may also be less favorable or more costly than the terms we have with our current supplier. A delay in the commercialization of our products or the development of our product candidates or having to enter into a new agreement with a different third-party on less favorable terms than we have with our current suppliers could have a material adverse impact upon on our business. Furthermore, current geopolitical tensions with China including the Congressional legislative proposal, titled the BIOSECURE Act, which would, among other things, prohibit U.S. federal funding in connection with biotechnology equipment or services produced or provided by Chinese biotechnology companies, and the recent requests by certain Congressional leaders that WuXi AppTech Co. and its affiliates be added to certain U.S. Government restricted entity lists, could lead to our competitors and other companies moving to suppliers outside of China, including to our current suppliers. Significant increases in business at our single source suppliers resulting from such activities could adversely limit capacity at such suppliers to manufacture our products or result in price increases, interruptions or delays of our products.

The biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries are intensely competitive and subject to rapid and significant technological change. We are currently aware of various existing treatments that may compete with our products and product candidates. See our "Item 1. Business – Competition" in our Annual Report. We have competitors both in the U.S. and internationally, including major multinational pharmaceutical companies, specialty pharmaceutical companies, biotechnology companies, startups, academic research institutions, government agencies, and public and private research institutions. Many of our competitors have substantially greater financial, technical, and other resources, such as larger research and development staff and experienced marketing and manufacturing organizations. Additional mergers and acquisitions in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries can often result in even more resources being concentrated in our competitors. As a result, these companies may obtain regulatory approval more rapidly than we are able to and may be more effective in selling and marketing their products as well. Smaller or early-stage companies may also prove to be significant competitors, particularly through collaborative arrangements with large, established companies. Competition may increase further as a result of advances in the commercial applicability of technologies and greater availability of capital for investment in these industries. Our competitors may succeed in developing, acquiring, or licensing on an exclusive basis, products that are more effective or less costly than any product candidate that we may develop, or achieve earlier patent protection, regulatory approval, product commercialization, and market penetration than we do. Additionally, technologies developed by our competitors may render our potential products and product candidates uneconomical or obsolete, and we may not be successful in marketing our products and product candidates against competitors.

Even with the requisite approvals from the FDA and comparable foreign regulatory authorities, the commercial success of our current and future products will depend in part on the medical community, patients, and payors accepting our current and future products as medically useful, cost-effective, and safe. Any product that we bring to the market may not gain market acceptance by physicians, patients, payors, and others in the medical community. The degree of market acceptance of any of our current and future products will depend on a number of factors, including: - the efficacy of the product as demonstrated in clinical studies and potential advantages over competing treatments;- the prevalence and severity of any side effects, including any limitations or warnings contained in a product's approved labeling;- the clinical indications for which approval is granted;- relative convenience and ease of administration;- the cost of treatment, particularly in relation to competing treatments;- the willingness of the target patient population to try new therapies and of physicians to prescribe these therapies;- the effectiveness of our field forces and marketing efforts;- the strength of marketing and distribution support and timing of market introduction of competitive products;- publicity concerning our products or competing products and treatments; and - sufficient third-party insurance coverage and reimbursement. Even if a potential product displays a favorable efficacy and safety profile in nonclinical and clinical studies, market acceptance of the product will not be fully known until after it is launched. Our efforts to educate the medical community and payors on the benefits of the product candidates require significant resources and may never be successful. If our current and future products fail to achieve an adequate level of acceptance by physicians, patients, payors, and others in the medical community, we will not be able to generate sufficient revenue to become or remain profitable.