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P3 Health Partners (PIII)
NASDAQ:PIII
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P3 Health Partners
(NASDAQ:PIII)
42Neutral
Positive Factors
Medicare Sector Environment
Management believes the macro environment is improving in the Medicare sector following years of pressure from factors such as cost trends and rich benefit designs.
Operational Improvements
Management continues to be positive on achieving +$130m in operational improvements and identified a further $25m of additional improvements from network changes.
Negative Factors
Capital Needs
PIII requires further capital infusion to support future operations following recent capital raises.
EBITDA and Revenue Performance
P3 Health Partners reported fourth quarter 2024 results that were below expectations on both revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
Future Performance Uncertainty
PIII withdrew 2024E guidance for all metrics, indicating low visibility and uncertainty in its future performance.
P3 Health Partners (PIII) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$54.44M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)674.41K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.51
Revenue Growth18.48%
EPS Growth-37.42%
CountryUS
Employees360
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength69
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-18.00
Shares Outstanding163,159,550
10 Day Avg. Volume584,875
30 Day Avg. Volume674,415
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.04
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-0.70
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.31
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.16
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.75Price Target Upside199.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
P3 Health Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionP3 Health Partners Inc., a patient-centered and physician-led population health management company, provides superior care services in the United States. It operates clinics and wellness centers. The company is based in Henderson, Nevada.
How the Company Makes MoneyP3 Health Partners makes money through a value-based care model, where it receives payments from health plans and insurance providers for managing the healthcare needs of their members. This model incentivizes the company to focus on improving patient health outcomes and reducing costs. Revenue streams include capitation payments, where P3 receives a fixed amount per patient enrolled under their care, and performance-based incentives tied to the quality and efficiency of the healthcare services provided. Significant partnerships with healthcare providers and insurance companies contribute to its earnings, aligning financial success with patient health outcomes.
P3 Health Partners Financial Statement Overview
Summary
P3 Health Partners shows revenue growth but struggles with profitability and financial stability. High leverage and negative margins pose significant risks, requiring improvements in operational efficiency and debt reduction.Income Statement
P3 Health Partners has shown a notable revenue growth from the previous year, with a 18.48% increase in 2024. Despite this, the company struggles with profitability, evidenced by negative gross profit margins and a significant net loss. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating challenges in covering operational costs and interest expenses.40
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio standing at 1.01, indicating potential risk in financial stability. The equity ratio is low at 9.69%, suggesting limited buffer against liabilities. Return on equity is highly negative, reflecting the net losses impacting shareholder value.35
Negative
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals negative free cash flow, indicating challenges in generating cash from operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting inefficiencies in converting profits into cash. However, there's a positive cash inflow from financing activities which may provide temporary relief.30
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 1.50B | 1.27B | 1.05B | 491.06B | 485.54M | Gross Profit |
| 1.50B | 31.64M | -95.01M | 490.40B | 243.70K | EBIT |
| -320.66M | -167.86M | -1.56B | -31.41B | -35.12M | EBITDA |
| -242.11M | -81.07M | -1.46B | -184.61M | -28.08M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -301.60M | -57.77M | -270.13M | -10.08M | -31.41M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 38.82M | 36.32M | 17.54M | 140.48M | 36.26M | Total Assets |
| 783.42M | 860.97M | 876.57M | 2.36B | 99.90M | Total Debt |
| 76.34M | 121.94M | 105.94M | 89.92M | 49.11M | Net Debt |
| 37.52M | 85.62M | 88.40M | -50.56M | 12.85M | Total Liabilities |
| 633.89M | 427.31M | 353.91M | 299.94M | 145.96M | Stockholders Equity |
| 75.94M | 142.13M | 5.85M | 273.55M | -27.87M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -110.13M | -77.86M | -128.25K | -69.88M | -27.52M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -110.13M | -76.03M | -126.02K | -66.47M | -24.60M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 14.53M | -1.83M | -7.73K | -56.07M | -3.17M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 98.77M | 100.33M | 11.38K | 223.47M | 34.76M |
P3 Health Partners Technical Analysis
Negative
8.94
Price Trends
9.24
Negative
9.85
Negative
16.14
Negative
Market Momentum
0.02
Negative
49.63
Neutral
66.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PIII, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.83, below the 50-day MA of 9.24, and below the 200-day MA of 16.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PIII.
P3 Health Partners Risk Analysis
P3 Health Partners disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. P3 Health Partners reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
P3 Health Partners Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
56 Neutral | $250.74M | ― | -174.88% | ― | 21.33% | 23.37% | |
51 Neutral | $5.32B | 3.41 | -40.36% | 2.89% | 17.93% | 2.52% | |
48 Neutral | $114.81M | ― | -10.11% | ― | -7.95% | -81.25% | |
46 Neutral | $347.95M | ― | 39.18% | ― | 1.05% | -288.07% | |
43 Neutral | $415.20M | ― | -9.64% | ― | 11.91% | 18.44% | |
42 Neutral | $54.44M | ― | -124.59% | ― | 18.48% | -37.42% | |
34 Underperform | $21.08M | ― | -341.96% | ― | 1.32% | 1.95% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
PIII
P3 Health Partners
8.94
-14.48
-61.83%
CYH
Community Health
2.67
-0.62
-18.84%
MODV
ModivCare
1.47
-22.37
-93.83%
TOI
Oncology Institute, Inc.
3.31
2.22
203.67%
INNV
InnovAge Holding
3.07
-0.65
-17.47%
AIRS
Airsculpt Technologies, Inc.
1.96
-3.62
-64.87%
P3 Health Partners Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 27, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: -1.11%|
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call for P3 Health Partners highlighted significant membership and revenue growth, strategic initiatives for future profitability, and leadership enhancements. However, the call also acknowledged challenges with decreased medical margins and elevated expenses, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA loss. Despite these challenges, the company's reaffirmed guidance and strategic initiatives suggest optimism for future performance.Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Membership and Revenue Growth
P3 Health Partners reported a 13% increase in membership from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024 and a 7% revenue growth to $371 million for the quarter. On an annual basis, 2024 revenues reached $1.5 billion, marking an 18% growth year over year.
Positive Guidance and Strategic Initiatives
The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance for revenues between $1.35 billion and $1.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA from negative $35 million to positive $5 million. The company also highlighted a $130 million adjusted EBITDA improvement opportunity and success in operational efficiencies.
Leadership and Operational Enhancements
P3 Health Partners enhanced its senior leadership team with key hires, including a new Chief Legal and Compliance Officer. The company also introduced innovative programs like P3 Restore to reduce physician burnout.
Improved Medical Expense Management
The company reported decreased medical expenses, especially Part D expenses, and a significant reduction in Part D risk membership by 50%.
Negative Updates
Decreased Medical Margin
The fourth quarter medical margin was $7 million, a decrease year over year due to elevated utilization trends.
Adjusted EBITDA Loss
Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was a loss of $68 million, including unfavorable out-of-period true-ups related to a single-payer partner.
Elevated Medical Expenses
Full-year medical margin decreased by 37% year-over-year, driven by elevated medical expenses, especially Part D expenses.
Company Guidance
During the P3 Health Partners' Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, guidance for 2025 was reaffirmed with projected revenues ranging from $1.35 billion to $1.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA between negative $35 million and $5 million positive. The company anticipates a growth in membership, increasing their total expectation to 109,000 to 119,000 due to ACO membership expansion. The revenue guidance reflects a 3.1% increase in MA funding, while medical margin is expected to be between $174 million to $210 million, translating to a per member per month (PMPM) range of $133 to $147. These figures are supported by operational efficiencies, including a $20 million reduction in operating expenses, and strategic contract renegotiations yielding $35 million in EBITDA improvements. Additionally, P3 Health Partners aims for a significant EBITDA improvement opportunity of over $130 million. Medical expenses are expected to normalize as benefit plan designs rationalize, contributing an estimated $30 to $35 PMPM in medical margin benefits. The company has also reduced its Part D exposure by 50% and plans further reductions. With an end-of-year cash balance of $38.8 million, excluding an additional $15 million received in early January 2025, P3 continues to assess its liquidity needs while focusing on profitability and sustainable growth.P3 Health Partners Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingFinancial Disclosures
P3 Health Partners Announces 2025 Financial Guidance
Neutral
Feb 13, 2025
On February 13, 2025, P3 Health Partners announced its initial financial guidance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, projecting revenues between $1.350 billion and $1.500 billion and an Adjusted EBITDA ranging from negative $35 million to $5 million. The company also revealed a proposed financing transaction with its largest shareholder involving a $30 million unsecured promissory note. CEO Aric Coffman emphasized the company’s strong progress in executing its $130+ million EBITDA growth initiatives and targeting profitability in 2025, while the proposed financing is expected to provide sufficient liquidity for working capital needs.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.