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Performance Food Group Co. (PFGC)
:PFGC

Performance Food Group (PFGC) AI Stock Analysis

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PFPerformance Food Group
(NYSE:PFGC)
71Outperform
Performance Food Group shows strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, reflecting growth potential. However, technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and the high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation. Leadership changes are favorable but have limited immediate impact. Overall, the stock presents a solid growth story but with caution due to technical and valuation concerns.
Positive Factors
Market Share
Share gains continue to impress and set up for bigger upside ahead.
Sales and Growth
F2Q sales and EBITDA beat expectations due to strong organic growth and contributions from acquisitions.
Negative Factors
Earnings and Expenses
Earnings per share are slightly lower, weighing on the stock due to higher interest expenses and depreciation from acquisitions.

Performance Food Group (PFGC) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Performance Food Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPerformance Food Group (PFGC) is a leading foodservice distribution company operating primarily in the United States. The company supplies a broad range of food and related products to over 300,000 customer locations, including restaurants, schools, hotels, healthcare facilities, and other foodservice establishments. PFGC operates through three main business segments: Foodservice, Vistar, and Convenience, each catering to different aspects of the food distribution market, providing products ranging from fresh and frozen food to beverages, snacks, and other consumable goods.
How the Company Makes MoneyPerformance Food Group generates revenue primarily through the sale and distribution of food and related products to a diverse set of customers across the foodservice industry. The company leverages its extensive distribution network and strong supplier relationships to offer a wide variety of products, which include fresh and frozen foods, dry groceries, and non-food items. PFGC's revenue streams are diversified across its three main segments: the Foodservice segment focuses on providing broadline distribution services to independent and chain restaurants; the Vistar segment specializes in distributing candy, snacks, and beverages to vending and office coffee service distributors; and the Convenience segment supplies products to convenience stores. The company's earnings are further enhanced by its strategic partnerships with well-known food brands, proprietary brand offerings, and value-added services such as menu planning and supply chain solutions. These factors contribute to PFGC's ability to maintain a competitive edge in the foodservice distribution industry.

Performance Food Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Performance Food Group is demonstrating solid financial health with consistent revenue growth and efficient cash flow management. The company maintains a strong gross profit margin and manageable debt levels. While there are challenges with high debt, the overall trajectory is positive, indicating sound financial management and growth potential.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Performance Food Group shows strong revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increase of 2.98% from the previous annual period. Gross Profit Margin is healthy at 11.02%, and Net Profit Margin, while lower, remains positive at 0.64%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, indicating good operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects a solid financial performance with continued growth.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's balance sheet is stable with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 1.85, indicating moderate leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is 9.10%, showcasing decent profitability for shareholders. The Equity Ratio is 24.89%, suggesting a reasonable level of equity financing. However, high debt levels pose a potential risk if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
There is a positive trend in Free Cash Flow with a growth rate of -30.21% in the TTM period, which is a decline from the previous period. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio stands at 2.55, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.38, suggesting effective cash utilization. While there is a slight decrease in free cash flow, overall cash flow management remains robust.
Breakdown
TTMJun 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021Jun 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
60.10B58.28B57.25B50.89B30.40B25.09B
Gross Profit
6.62B6.58B6.25B5.26B3.53B2.87B
EBIT
820.40M826.40M765.80M327.40M200.70M-105.30M
EBITDA
1.43B1.38B1.26B809.10M539.60M155.60M
Net Income Common Stockholders
387.30M435.90M397.20M112.50M40.70M-114.10M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
10.70M20.00M12.70M11.60M11.10M420.70M
Total Assets
17.10B13.39B12.50B12.38B7.85B7.72B
Total Debt
7.86B4.98B4.74B5.00B3.00B3.02B
Net Debt
7.85B4.96B4.73B4.99B2.99B2.60B
Total Liabilities
12.84B9.27B8.75B9.08B5.74B5.71B
Stockholders Equity
4.26B4.13B3.75B3.30B2.11B2.01B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
535.60M767.40M562.40M61.00M-124.20M465.60M
Operating Cash Flow
988.00M1.16B832.10M276.50M64.60M623.60M
Investing Cash Flow
-2.98B-682.70M-294.60M-1.86B-199.80M-2.15B
Financing Cash Flow
1.99B-472.60M-536.20M1.58B-274.40M1.93B

Performance Food Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price77.93
Price Trends
50DMA
85.72
Negative
100DMA
85.47
Negative
200DMA
77.98
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.91
Positive
RSI
30.82
Neutral
STOCH
21.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PFGC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 77.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 83.67, below the 50-day MA of 85.72, and below the 200-day MA of 77.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.91 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PFGC.

Performance Food Group Risk Analysis

Performance Food Group disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Performance Food Group reported the most risks in the “Ability to Sell” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Performance Food Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$15.39B32.5610.65%6.41%-2.01%
SYSYY
75
Outperform
$36.74B19.2987.49%2.70%3.95%-5.04%
75
Outperform
$2.38B43.6311.18%10.50%59.18%
71
Outperform
$12.30B31.419.54%3.85%-9.74%
66
Neutral
$1.68B-5.66%3.32%-13.76%
63
Neutral
$20.85B13.27-10.88%7.48%1.13%11.50%
63
Neutral
$659.43M2,244.830.01%4.45%-2.66%8.18%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PFGC
Performance Food Group
77.93
2.86
3.81%
SPTN
SpartanNash Co
20.26
0.81
4.16%
SYY
Sysco
76.55
-1.33
-1.71%
CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse
56.68
20.10
54.95%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
26.91
14.99
125.76%
USFD
US Foods Holding
65.62
13.05
24.82%

Performance Food Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 5, 2025 | % Change Since: -13.98% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant growth in organic case volumes and successful integration of recent acquisitions, leading to strong financial performance. However, challenges in the Vistar segment and increased leverage due to acquisitions were noted as areas of concern.
Highlights
Organic Independent Restaurant Case Volume Growth
Organic independent restaurant case volume grew by 5% in the fiscal second quarter, with a notable increase to over 7% in October and November combined.
Vistar and Convenience Segment Performance
Vistar saw a 1.4% case growth with positive sales growth across vending, office coffee services, and corrections channels. Convenience business showed progress with mid-single-digit growth in foodservice cases.
Successful Integration and Performance of Acquisitions
Early results from the Cheney Brothers and Jose Santiago acquisitions were strong, with double-digit top and bottom line performance.
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
PFG reported an adjusted EBITDA increase of 22.5% to $423 million, surpassing the guidance range.
Record Net Sales Growth
Total net sales grew 9.4% in the quarter, driven by organic growth and contributions from recent acquisitions.
Lowlights
Challenges in Vistar Segment
Vistar faced lower foot traffic and customer-specific challenges, impacting its growth despite easier year-over-year comparisons.
Weather-Related Challenges
The southeast markets faced challenges due to hurricanes and a slow recovery, impacting sales and growth in those regions.
Leverage Increase Due to Acquisition
Net leverage increased above the 2.5 to 3.5 times target range due to the Cheney Brothers acquisition, requiring a focus on debt reduction.
Company Guidance
During the fiscal second quarter of 2025, Performance Food Group (PFG) reported a 9.4% increase in net sales, driven by organic growth and contributions from acquisitions like Jose Santiago and Cheney Brothers. Organic independent restaurant case volume rose 5%, with expectations for a 6% growth by fiscal year-end. The Foodservice segment achieved a 29.4% increase in adjusted EBITDA, and the Convenience segment saw a 28.5% growth, despite challenges in the cigarette category. Vistar experienced a 1.4% case growth, with improvements anticipated in the second half of the fiscal year. PFG's adjusted EBITDA increased by 22.5% to $423 million, surpassing guidance expectations, while adjusted diluted earnings per share rose 8.9% to $0.98. The company plans to focus on debt reduction to bring leverage back within the target range of 2.5 to 3.5 times and has raised its full-year sales guidance to a range of $63 billion to $64 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA expectation of $1.725 billion to $1.8 billion.

Performance Food Group Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Performance Food Group Announces Leadership Changes for 2025
Positive
Dec 16, 2024

Performance Food Group announced executive leadership changes effective January 1, 2025, appointing Scott McPherson as President and Chief Operating Officer and Craig Hoskins as Executive Vice President and Chief Development Officer. McPherson will focus on growth across PFG’s business segments, while Hoskins will lead the integration of recent acquisitions to leverage their strengths. These changes are part of PFG’s strategy to strengthen its leadership team and drive innovation and growth in a dynamic marketplace.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.