Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) Risk Analysis

Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration ("PHMSA") has established a series of rules requiring pipeline operators to develop and implement integrity management programs for hazardous liquid pipelines that, in the event of a pipeline leak or rupture, could affect high consequence areas ("HCAs"), which are areas where a release could have the most significant adverse consequences, including high-population areas, certain drinking water sources, and unusually sensitive ecological areas. These regulations require operators of covered pipelines to: - perform ongoing assessments of pipeline integrity;- identify and characterize applicable threats to pipeline segments that could impact an HCA;- improve data collection, integration, and analysis;- repair and remediate the pipeline as necessary; and - implement preventive and mitigating actions. In addition, certain states have also adopted regulations similar to existing PHMSA regulations for intrastate gathering and transmission lines. These requirements could require us to install new or modified safety controls, pursue additional capital projects, or conduct maintenance programs on an accelerated basis, any or all of which tasks could result in us incurring increased operating costs that could be significant and have a material adverse effect on our financial position or results of operations. Additionally, we are subject to periodic inspection and audit regarding these requirements. Moreover, changes to pipeline safety laws by Congress and regulations by PHMSA that result in more stringent or costly safety standards could result in our incurring increased operating costs that could have a material adverse effect on our financial position or results of operations. Finally, while we have incurred certain additional costs associated with operating a pipeline regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, our costs to date have not been material.

Changes in labor markets due to various factors, including inflationary pressures, have increased the competition for recruiting and retaining talent. As a result of these factors, our business could be adversely impacted by increases in labor, health care, and benefits costs necessary to attract and retain high quality employees with the right skill sets to meet our needs. In addition, our wages and benefits programs may be insufficient to attract and retain top performing employees, especially in a rising wage market. Any failure by us to attract, develop, retain, motivate, and maintain good relationships with qualified individuals could adversely affect our business and results of operations.

Crude oil in storage tanks and certain crude oil in transit at our Hawaii refinery is subject to our Inventory Intermediation Agreement. Deliveries of crude oil at our other refineries are subject to the ABL Credit Facility. If we are unable to obtain our crude oil supply for our refineries under these agreements, our exposure to crude oil pricing risks may increase as the number of days between when we pay for the crude oil and when the crude oil is delivered to us increases. Such increased exposure could negatively impact our liquidity position due to the increase in working capital used to acquire crude oil inventory for our refineries.

We enter into derivative contracts from time to time primarily to reduce our exposure to fluctuations in interest rates and in the price of crude oil and refined products. If the instruments we use to hedge our exposure are not effective, or if our counterparties are unable to satisfy their obligations to us, we may incur losses. We may also be required to incur additional costs in connection with future regulation of derivative instruments to the extent such regulation is applicable to us. Additionally, our commodity derivative activities may produce significant period-to-period earnings volatility that is not necessarily reflective of our underlying operational performance.

The RFS program sets annual quotas for the quantity of renewable fuels that must be blended into transportation fuels consumed in the U.S. A RIN is assigned to each gallon of renewable fuel produced in or imported into the U.S. As a producer of petroleum-based transportation fuels, we are obligated to blend renewable fuels into the petroleum fuels we produce and sell in the U.S. To the extent we do not, we are required to purchase RINs in the market to satisfy our obligations under the RFS program. In addition, as a result of the annual volume mandates, we may experience a decrease in demand for refined products due to refined products being replaced by renewable fuels. We are exposed to the volatility in the market price of RINs and are unable to predict the future prices of RINs. RINs prices are dependent upon a variety of factors, including EPA regulations, the availability of RINs for purchase, and levels of transportation fuels produced, which can vary significantly from quarter to quarter. If sufficient RINs are unavailable for purchase, if we have to pay a significantly higher price for RINs, or if we are otherwise unable to meet the EPA's RFS mandates, our results of operations and cash flows could be adversely affected. The current administration has also been critical of exemptions from the RFS mandates granted to small refineries during the previous administration. While litigation over the issue is currently before various courts, the EPA under the current administration may be less willing to grant such waivers going forward and may increase the RVO in future years. To the extent fewer waivers are granted in the future or the RVO is increased, the demand for and the price of RINs would likely also increase, and our results of operations and cash flows could be adversely affected. In addition, the EPA is considering changes to the existing RFS program regulations and other regulatory initiatives under the RFS program that could impact future standards. Although uncertain, any of these events may cause the price of RINs to rise and result in additional costs in connection with RFS compliance. Such increased costs could be material and may have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition, and results of operations. All RIN transactions are recorded in the EPA Moderated Transaction System ("EMTS"). Under this system, purchasers of RINs are required to self-certify their validity without verification by the EPA, and are responsible for any invalid RINs submitted to the EPA for compliance. We believe that the RINs we purchase are from reputable sources, are valid, and serve to demonstrate compliance with applicable RFS requirements. However, if this belief proves incorrect and the RINs that we purchase are not valid or in compliance with applicable RFS requirements, our financial condition and cash flows may be adversely affected. Several states, including Washington and Hawaii, have pursued or are considering initiatives designed to reduce the carbon intensity of the transportation sector by encouraging increased use of renewable fuels or electric vehicles or by requiring reductions in transportation fuel-related GHG emissions in the state. Since 2006, the State of Washington has required that denatured ethanol make up at least 2% of total gasoline sold in the state and that biodiesel comprise at least 2% of total diesel sold in the state, and the Washington Department of Ecology is authorized to increase these requirements if certain conditions are met. In 2020 and 2021 the State of Washington adopted several statutes that are relevant to our operations in the state of Washington including a law approving new regulatory requirements regarding zero emission vehicles and a low-carbon fuel standard designed to reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by twenty percent by 2038. Legislation signed in March of 2020 directed the Washington Department of Ecology to adopt California's vehicle emission standards including requirements to increase zero emission vehicles sold in the state. Washington Department of Ecology adopted by reference California's zero emission vehicle standard starting with model year 2025 in a rule issued on November 29, 2021. In 2014, the State of Hawaii signed a memorandum of understanding with the U.S. Department of Energy to collaborate to produce 70% of the state's energy needs from energy-efficient and renewable sources by 2030 and 100% of the state's energy needs from energy-efficient and renewable sources by 2045. In addition, Hawaii's alternative fuels standard requires the State to facilitate the development of alternate fuels so such fuels provide 20% of highway fuel demand by 2020 and 30% by 2030. Finally, California and a small number of other states have announced a ban on new internal combustion engine-powered cars by 2035. These state actions could reduce demand for our refined petroleum products, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition.

As of December 31, 2024, we estimated that we had approximately $1.0 billion of net operating loss ("NOL") tax carryforwards. In order to utilize the NOLs, we must generate taxable income that can offset such carryforwards. The availability of NOLs to offset taxable income would be substantially reduced or eliminated if we were to undergo an "ownership change" within the meaning of Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the "Code"). We will be treated as having had an "ownership change" if there is more than a 50% increase in stock ownership during any three year "testing period" by "5% shareholders." In order to help us preserve our NOLs, our certificate of incorporation contains stock transfer restrictions designed to reduce the risk of an ownership change for purposes of Section 382 of the Code. We expect that the restrictions will remain in place for the foreseeable future. We cannot assure you, however, that these restrictions will prevent an ownership change. Our ability to utilize a significant portion of our NOLs to offset future taxable income is subject to various limitations, including that certain NOLs will expire in various amounts, if not used, between 2030 through 2037. During 2018, the Internal Revenue Service ("IRS") completed an audit of our tax returns for the tax years ending 2014 through 2016, which included those returns for the years in which the losses giving rise to the NOLs were reported. Although the IRS made no challenge of the availability of our NOLs during this audit, we cannot assure you that we would prevail if the IRS were to challenge the availability of the NOLs in the event of future audits. If the IRS were successful in challenging our NOLs, all or some portion of the NOLs would not be available to offset any future consolidated income, which would negatively impact our results of operations and cash flows. Certain provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, enacted in 2017, may also limit our ability to utilize our net operating tax loss carryforwards.

Currently, multiple legislative and regulatory measures to address GHG, including CO2, methane, and NOX, and other emissions are in various phases of consideration, promulgation, or implementation at various levels of the federal and state government. These include actions to develop international, federal, regional, or statewide programs, which could require reductions in our GHG or other emissions, establish a carbon tax and decrease the demand for our refined products. Requiring reductions in these emissions could result in increased costs to (i) operate and maintain our facilities, (ii) install new emission controls at our facilities, and (iii) administer and manage any emissions programs, including acquiring emission credits or allotments. For example, in 2015, the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. participated in the United Nations Conference on Climate Change, which led to the creation of the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement, which was signed by the U.S. in April 2016, requires countries to review and "represent a progression" in their intended nationally determined contributions (which set GHG emission reduction goals) every five years beginning in 2020. In November 2020, the United States' previously announced withdrawal from the Paris Agreement became effective. On January 20, 2021, President Biden announced that the United States would be reentering the Paris Agreement. This reentry became effective on February 19, 2021, however, on January 20, 2025, President Trump signed Executive Order 14162 directing the U.S. government to again withdraw from the Paris Agreement. The EPA has issued a notice of finding and determination that emissions of CO2, methane, and other GHGs present an endangerment to human health and the environment. In response, the EPA has adopted regulations under existing provisions of the federal Clean Air Act that, among other things, establish Prevention of Significant Deterioration ("PSD") construction and Title V operating permit program requiring reviews for GHG emissions from certain large stationary sources. Facilities required to obtain PSD permits for their GHG emissions will also be required to meet "best available control technology" standards, which will be established by the states or, in some instances, by the EPA on a case-by-case basis. In addition, the EPA has adopted rules requiring the monitoring and reporting of GHG emissions from specified large GHG emission sources in the U.S., including petroleum refineries and certain onshore petroleum and natural gas production activities, on an annual basis. We monitor for GHG emissions at our refineries and believe we are in substantial compliance with the applicable GHG reporting requirements. Certain of the third-party drilling and production entities in which we hold a working interest also may be subject to reporting of GHG emissions in the U.S. These EPA policies and rulemakings could adversely affect our operations and restrict or delay our ability to obtain air permits for new or modified facilities. In addition, from time to time, the U.S. Congress has considered and may in the future consider and adopt "cap and trade" legislation that would establish an economy-wide cap on GHG emissions in the U.S. and would require most sources of GHG emissions to obtain emission "allowances" corresponding to their annual GHG emissions. For those GHG sources that are unable to meet the required limitations, such legislation could impose substantial financial burdens. Any laws or regulations that may be adopted to restrict or reduce GHG emissions would likely require us to incur increased operating costs and could have an adverse effect on demand for our production. The adoption of any legislation or regulations that limits emissions of GHG from our or such drilling and production entities' facilities, equipment, and operations could require us or such entities to incur costs to reduce emissions of GHG associated with our or such entities' operations or could adversely affect demand for the refined petroleum products that we produce or the crude oil or natural gas that such drilling and production entities in which we hold a working interest produce. At the state level, Washington and other states have passed low carbon fuel standard legislation and other initiatives, including a cap and invest program, to reduce emissions from the transportation sector. We could also face increased climate-related litigation with respect to our operations or products. If we are unable to pass the costs of compliance on to our customers, sufficient credits are unavailable for purchase, we have to pay a significantly higher price for credits, or we are otherwise unable to meet our compliance obligation, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected. Federal, regional, and state climate change and air emissions goals and regulatory programs under the Clean Air Act are complex, subject to change, and create uncertainty due to a number of factors including technological feasibility, legal challenges, and potential changes in federal policy. Nevertheless, stricter regulation can be expected in the future and any of these or similar changes, including a switch to alternative fuels such as liquified natural gas for power generation, or regulatory enforcement in connection with such requirements, may have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations, and financial condition. For more information, please read Note 18-Commitments and Contingencies to our consolidated financial statements under Item 8 of this Form 10-K.

A recession or prolonged economic downturn would adversely affect the business and economic environment in which we operate. These conditions increase the risks associated with the creditworthiness of our suppliers, customers, and business partners. The consequences of such adverse effects could include interruptions or delays in our suppliers' performance of our contracts, reductions and delays in customer purchases, delays in or the inability of customers to obtain financing to purchase our products, and bankruptcy of customers. Additionally, technological changes or innovations related to, among other things, electric vehicles or autonomous driving may create risks to our business that we are unable to predict. Any of these events may adversely affect our financial condition, cash flows, and profitability.

Some scientists have concluded that increasing concentrations of GHG in Earth's atmosphere may produce climate changes that have significant weather-related effects, such as increased frequency and severity of storms, droughts, floods, and other climatic events. If any of those effects were to occur, they could have an adverse effect on our operations, including damages to our refineries, retail locations, logistics assets or other properties from powerful wind or rising waters. We may experience increased insurance costs, or difficulty obtaining adequate insurance coverage, for our assets in areas subject to more frequent severe weather. We may not be able to recoup these increased costs through the cash generated by our business. Extreme weather events could cause damage to property or facilities that could exceed our insurance coverage and our business, financial condition, and results of operations could be adversely affected. Additionally, if we are named in litigation related to climate change, costs or other impacts resulting from such litigation could be material.