Onto Innovation (ONTO) Risk Analysis

The semiconductor device industry is a high-visibility industry in many of the European and Asian countries in which we sell our products. Because the governments of these countries have provided extensive financial support to our semiconductor device manufacturing customers in these countries, we believe that our customers could be disproportionately affected by any trade embargoes, excise taxes, tariffs, trade retaliation, or other restrictions imposed by their governments on trade with U.S. companies such as ourselves, particularly with respect to the ongoing tensions between the United States and China. Additionally, over the last several years, the U.S. government has significantly expanded export controls on certain technologies and commodities to certain markets, particularly with respect to semiconductor and other high technology exports to China. For example, the U.S. Department of Commerce ("DoC") has imposed export controls on the transfer of certain U.S. products and technologies to "military end users" in China, as well as restrictions on the transfer of U.S. products to certain companies, including Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd., and its affiliates. Most recently, in 2022, the DoC imposed new export controls related to the Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, advanced computing, and supercomputer industries. In 2022, the DoC also added a number of companies in China to the Unverified List and Entity List of the Export Administration Regulations ("EAR"), including Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Ltd (YMTC). In October 2023, as well as 2024 and early 2025, the DoC revised and expanded the 2022 export controls. The effect of these changes, among others, is that Onto Innovation is required to conduct additional end-use diligence and in some instances obtain export licenses before providing products to certain customers. There can be no assurance that export licenses applied for by us or our customers will be granted in a timely manner or at all. We have experienced and may continue to experience a temporary loss of revenues while we are obtaining licenses with certain customers affected by export controls. Failure to obtain any required license could result in a reduction of anticipated revenues until we are able to replace unlicensed orders with other customer orders for which a license has been obtained or is not required, and there can be no assurance that replacement orders will be obtained on favorable terms, in a timely manner, or at all. In addition, any licenses that are granted to us or to our customers may have a short duration or require us to satisfy various conditions, and it is possible that licenses that have been granted may be revoked or we may not be successful in obtaining reissuance of such licenses upon their expiration or in the event modifications are required to a previously issued license. Any of these occurrences could have a material adverse effect on our revenues, business, financial condition and results of operations. Further, we hold inventory of products that may be affected by these recent U.S. government actions, including potential order cancellations. If the sale of these products is delayed or we are unable to return or dispose of our inventory on favorable economic terms, we may incur additional carrying costs for the inventory or otherwise record charges associated with this inventory. The administrative processing, attendant delays and risk of ultimately not obtaining required export approvals also put us at a disadvantage relative to our non-U.S. competitors who may not be required to comply with U.S. export controls. This difficulty and uncertainty has adversely affected our ability to compete for and win business from domestic customers in China. It is possible that the U.S. government will impose additional export controls on our products or systems, which could lead to further revenue losses. For example, it remains uncertain what changes, if any, the new U.S. presidential administration will make with respect to U.S. export control policy. Any such changes could result in additional restrictions on our ability to sell products to customers in China and other jurisdictions. Foreign customers affected by current or future U.S. government sanctions, controls or threats of sanctions or controls may respond by developing their own solutions to replace our products or by utilizing our foreign competitors' products (who are not subject to the same export controls and can fulfill the orders). In addition, these export controls may also reduce overall global demand for our customers' products or for other products produced or manufactured in the U.S. or based on U.S. technology, in turn reducing demand for our products, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. Increased restrictions on China exports may also lead to regulatory retaliation by the Chinese government, which may adversely impact our business. International trade disputes could result in increases in tariffs and other trade restrictions and protectionist measures that could adversely impact our operations and reduce the competitiveness of our products relative to local and global competitors.

Inspection, lithography and metrology product development is inherently risky because it is difficult to foresee developments in semiconductor device manufacturing technology, coordinate technical personnel, and identify and eliminate system design flaws. Further, our products are leading edge and complex, and often the applications to our customers' businesses are unique. Any new systems we introduce may not achieve or sustain a significant degree of market acceptance and sales. We expect to spend a significant amount of time and resources developing new systems and refining our existing systems. In light of the long product development cycles inherent in our industry, these expenditures will be made well in advance of the prospect of deriving revenue from the sale of those systems. The long lead times for some components may also require us to place orders for components and accumulate inventory in advance of market acceptance of our products. Our ability to commercially introduce and successfully market new systems is subject to a wide variety of challenges during the development cycle, including start-up bugs, design defects, and other matters that could delay introduction of these systems. Since our customers are not obligated by long-term contracts to purchase our systems, our anticipated product orders may not materialize, or orders that are placed may be canceled. If we do not achieve market acceptance of new products, we may be unable to generate sufficient revenue and cash flow to recover our research and development costs and may experience a write down of our investments in inventory. As a result, our market share, revenue, operating results or stock price could be negatively impacted.