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Old National Bancorp (ONB)
:ONB

Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) AI Stock Analysis

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Old National Bancorp Capital

(NASDAQ:ONB)

74Outperform
Old National Bancorp is performing strongly with robust revenue growth, efficient operations, and a debt-free balance sheet. While the earnings call highlighted positive future guidance and successful strategic moves, challenges such as declining net profit margins, substantial investing cash outflows, and leadership transitions pose risks. The stock shows a positive technical trend and reasonable valuation.

Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Old National Bancorp Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOld National Bancorp Capital (ONB) is a financial services company that operates primarily in the banking sector. It offers a comprehensive range of financial products and services, including retail and commercial banking, wealth management, and mortgage services. With a focus on customer-centric solutions, ONB serves individuals, small businesses, and large corporations, providing personalized banking experiences tailored to the unique needs of its clients.
How the Company Makes MoneyOld National Bancorp Capital generates revenue through various streams, primarily driven by its banking operations. The company earns interest income from loans provided to individuals and businesses, including personal loans, mortgages, and commercial loans. Additionally, ONB generates fee-based income through account maintenance fees, transaction fees, and wealth management services. The bank also benefits from interest earned on its investment portfolio. Key partnerships with financial institutions and technology providers enhance its service offerings, contributing to its revenue growth. Overall, ONB's diversified financial services and strategic partnerships play a crucial role in sustaining its profitability.

Old National Bancorp Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Old National Bancorp demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency with a zero-debt position, highlighting financial robustness. However, declining net profit margins and substantial investing cash outflows suggest areas that need attention to ensure sustained financial health.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Old National Bancorp has shown strong revenue growth, with a significant increase in total revenue from the previous year. The gross profit margin remained stable at 100% due to the nature of the banking industry. However, the net profit margin has slightly declined, pointing towards increased expenses or lower profitability. The EBIT margin is impressive at 96.9%, indicating efficient operational control.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company maintains a solid equity base with a healthy equity ratio of 11.8%, reflecting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is zero, emphasizing a debt-free position, which is a strong positive indicator. Return on equity is reasonable at 8.5%, but there is room for improvement.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Operating cash flow has improved, and free cash flow shows positive growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.15, indicating strong cash earnings. However, the large investing cash outflows could indicate potential risks if not managed well.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
2.60B1.76B1.73B810.62M835.37M
Gross Profit
2.60B1.76B1.73B810.62M835.37M
EBIT
0.00832.19M671.00M338.86M255.56M
EBITDA
0.00816.56M607.03M383.11M313.75M
Net Income Common Stockholders
539.19M581.99M428.29M277.54M226.41M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
7.85B0.001.00B8.20B6.56B
Total Assets
53.55B49.09B46.76B24.45B22.96B
Total Debt
5.14B5.05B4.78B2.26B2.33B
Net Debt
3.91B3.87B4.06B1.44B1.74B
Total Liabilities
47.21B43.53B41.63B2.26B2.33B
Stockholders Equity
6.34B5.56B5.13B3.01B2.97B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
622.28M477.97M776.52M281.69M188.95M
Operating Cash Flow
622.28M516.34M814.42M330.38M219.82M
Investing Cash Flow
-1.37B-1.82B-1.69B-1.43B-2.14B
Financing Cash Flow
802.59M1.75B777.48M1.33B2.24B

Old National Bancorp Capital Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price20.13
Price Trends
50DMA
22.69
Negative
100DMA
21.85
Negative
200DMA
19.81
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.60
Positive
RSI
22.80
Positive
STOCH
10.43
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.90, below the 50-day MA of 22.69, and above the 200-day MA of 19.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.80 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.43 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ONB.

Old National Bancorp Capital Risk Analysis

Old National Bancorp Capital disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old National Bancorp Capital reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Old National Bancorp Capital Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
ONONB
74
Outperform
$6.42B11.969.06%2.78%16.39%-13.25%
74
Outperform
$21.39B12.419.93%4.09%10.13%-1.25%
72
Outperform
$26.24B12.7811.92%3.67%11.21%-2.26%
PNPNC
71
Outperform
$69.10B13.0811.10%3.64%7.24%7.51%
RFRF
71
Outperform
$19.49B11.4210.72%4.44%2.70%-8.16%
64
Neutral
$13.80B10.649.23%4.22%17.66%-7.66%
KEKEY
54
Neutral
$16.75B1,663.64-0.99%5.41%-11.11%-133.79%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
20.13
4.06
25.26%
FITB
Fifth Third Bancorp
38.23
2.87
8.12%
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares
14.40
1.54
11.98%
KEY
KeyCorp
15.16
1.06
7.52%
PNC
PNC Financial
170.06
24.45
16.79%
RF
Regions Financial
20.99
2.45
13.21%

Old National Bancorp Capital Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Jan 21, 2025 | % Change Since: -11.67% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a generally positive outlook with strong deposit and loan growth, successful acquisitions, and robust financial metrics. However, challenges in loan growth due to payoffs and line utilization, potential impacts from interest rate changes, and leadership transitions posed concerns.
Highlights
Strong Deposit and Loan Growth
Low-cost core deposits grew by approximately 10% in 2024, funding a corresponding 10% growth in loans. Since 2022, total deposits and loans have experienced a compounded annual growth rate of 8%.
Successful Acquisition and Integration
Closed and converted CapStar Bank and Old National Bank, strengthening presence in Nashville and other high-growth eastern markets. Announced partnership with Bremer Bank, expanding footprint across Minnesota, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
Robust Financial Metrics
Adjusted earnings per share of $1.86, adjusted return on average tangible common equity at 16.9%, and adjusted efficiency ratio at 52%. Tangible book value per share grew by 8% year-over-year.
Positive Operating Leverage
Generated positive linked quarter operating leverage with controlled expenses and peer-leading deposit growth at reasonable costs.
Lowlights
Loan Growth Challenges
Total loans decreased 1.6% annualized from last quarter due to $600 million of outsized payoffs and lower line utilization.
Potential Interest Rate Impacts
Net interest income and margin were affected by lower deposit costs and increased paydowns, with expectations of further rate cuts potentially impacting future income.
Leadership Transition
Retirement of President and COO, Mark Sander, planned for June 30, 2025, necessitating a search for his successor.
Company Guidance
During the Old National Bank's Q4 2024 earnings call, the management provided optimistic guidance for 2025, highlighting several key metrics. The bank reported a 10% growth in both loans and core deposits in 2024, with a compounded annual growth rate of 8% for total deposits and loans since 2022. The total cost of deposits was noted at 1.93%, with an adjusted return on average tangible common equity of 16.9% and a net return on average assets of 1.14%. The adjusted efficiency ratio stood at 52%, and net charge-offs were low at 17 basis points. For 2025, the bank expects stable to improving net interest margins and plans for a 4%-6% loan growth, supported by strong deposit strategies. The CET1 ratio remained strong at 11.38%, and the bank anticipates exceeding industry growth in deposits while maintaining a disciplined expense approach. The management also mentioned the successful integration of CapStar Bank and the upcoming partnership with Bremer Bank, with a projected closing by mid-2025 and full realization of cost savings by 2026.

Old National Bancorp Capital Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Old National Bancorp Unveils Q4 2024 Investor Presentation
Neutral
Feb 10, 2025

Old National Bancorp has filed an investor presentation for the fourth quarter of 2024, outlining its investment thesis and operational strategies. Key highlights include forward-looking statements addressing potential risks and opportunities related to its financial performance and strategic initiatives such as mergers and market positioning. The company also emphasizes its use of non-GAAP financial measures to provide a clearer understanding of its operational performance, excluding items that do not pertain to its core business operations.

Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Old National Bancorp Announces Leadership Changes and Strong Earnings
Positive
Jan 21, 2025

On January 21, 2025, Old National Bancorp Capital announced the retirement of President and COO Mark G. Sander effective June 30, 2025, and the appointment of Daniel S. Hermann as Lead Independent Director, succeeding Rebecca S. Skillman. Hermann has been part of the board since 2020 and brings experience from leadership roles in several companies. Old National Bancorp reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, with net income applicable to common shares of $149.8 million and adjusted net income of $156.0 million in the fourth quarter. The company experienced growth in deposits and loans, a robust net interest income, and maintained strong credit quality. These achievements highlight the company’s solid market positioning and strategic management.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.