Olin (OLN) Risk Analysis

The process of impairment testing for our goodwill involves a number of judgments and estimates made by management including future cash flows, discount rates, profitability assumptions and terminal growth rates with regards to our reporting units. Our internally generated long-range plan includes assumptions regarding pricing and operating forecasts for the chlor alkali industry. If the judgments and estimates used in our analysis are not realized or are affected by external factors, then actual results may not be consistent with these judgments and estimates, and we may be required to record a goodwill impairment charge in the future, which could be significant and have a material adverse effect on our business. We review long-lived assets, including property, plant and equipment and identifiable amortizing intangible assets, for impairment whenever changes in circumstances or events may indicate that the carrying amounts are not recoverable. If the fair value is less than the carrying amount of the asset, an impairment is recognized for the difference. Factors which may cause an impairment of long-lived assets include significant changes in the manner of use of these assets, negative industry or market trends, a significant underperformance relative to historical or projected future operating results, extended period of idleness or a likely sale or disposal of the asset before the end of its estimated useful life. If our property, plant and equipment and identifiable amortizing intangible assets are determined to be impaired in the future, we may be required to record non-cash charges to earnings during the period in which the impairment is determined, which could be significant and have a material adverse effect on our business.

Our industries and the businesses of most of our customers have historically experienced periodic downturns. These economic, seasonal and industry downturns have been characterized by diminished product demand, excess manufacturing capacity and, in some cases, lower average selling prices. Therefore, any significant downturn in our customers' businesses, industry conditions, or in global economic conditions could result in reduced demand for our products or our customers' products. Although a majority of our sales are within North America, a large part of our financial performance is dependent upon a healthy global economy as we, along with our customers, participate in global markets and sell products abroad. As a result, our business is and will continue to be affected by general economic and business conditions in Europe, Asia Pacific, particularly China, and Latin America, as well as within North America. External factors include inflation and fluctuations in interest rates, customer demand, labor and energy costs, currency changes, new capacity additions, competitor actions, public health epidemics, and other factors beyond our control. The demand for our products and our customers' products is directly affected by such fluctuations. In addition, our customers could decide to move some or all of their production to locations that are more remote from our facilities, and this could reduce demand for our products. We cannot assure you that events having an adverse effect on the industries in which we operate will not occur or continue, such as a downturn in the European, Asian Pacific, particularly Chinese, Latin American, or other world economies, increases in or persistently high interest rates, unfavorable currency fluctuations or prolonged effects of global public health crises, including pandemics. Economic conditions in other regions of the world, predominantly Asia and Europe, can adversely affect the balance between global supply and demand for our chemical products and increase the amount of products produced and made available for export to North America and other jurisdictions in which we sell. Any significant increased product supply could put downward pressure on our product pricing, negatively affecting our profitability.

Olin has an international presence, including the geographic regions of Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America and Canada. In 2024, approximately 29% of our sales were generated outside of the United States. These international sales and operations expose us to risks, including: - difficulties and costs associated with complying with complex and varied laws, treaties, and regulations;- tariffs and trade barriers;- outbreaks of serious disease, such as pandemics, which could cause us and our suppliers and/or customers to temporarily suspend operations in affected areas, restrict the ability of Olin to distribute our products or cause economic downturns that could affect demand for our products;- geopolitical or regional conflicts which can disrupt trade flows, supply/demand fundamentals, or the ability to sell certain products within countries or regions;- changes in laws and regulations, including the imposition of economic or trade sanctions affecting international commercial transactions;- risk of non-compliance with anti-bribery laws and regulations, such as the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act;- restrictions on, or difficulties and costs associated with, the repatriation of cash from foreign countries to the United States;- unfavorable currency fluctuations;- changes in local economic conditions, including inflation levels exceeding that of the U.S.;- unexpected changes in political or regulatory environments;- labor compliance and costs associated with a global workforce;- data privacy regulations;- difficulties in maintaining overseas subsidiaries and international operations; and - challenges in protecting intellectual property rights. Any one or more of the above factors could have a material adverse effect on our business.

We are exposed to climate-related risks and uncertainties, many of which are outside of our control. We have a substantial presence near the U.S. Gulf Coast and a significant portion of our manufacturing facilities, similar to our competitors and customers, are structured near major bodies of water. Major hurricanes, or other weather-related events, have caused significant disruption in our operations on the U.S. Gulf Coast, logistics across the region and the supply of certain raw materials, which have had an adverse effect on volume and cost for some of our products. Climate change could result in more frequent severe weather events, potential changes in precipitation patterns and extreme variability in weather patterns, which could disrupt our operations in the U.S. Gulf Coast, or elsewhere, as well as those of our customers and suppliers. Severe weather conditions or other natural phenomena in the future, including those resulting from climate change, could have a material adverse effect on our business.

While we believe we have facilities in place that should allow us to borrow funds as needed to meet our ordinary course business activities, adverse conditions in the credit and financial markets could prevent us from obtaining financing, if the need arises, or result in our creditors terminating their funding commitments. Our ability to invest in our businesses and refinance or repay maturing debt obligations could require access to the credit and capital markets and sufficient bank credit lines to support cash requirements. Our ability to access credit and capital markets can also depend on our credit rating as determined by reputable credit rating agencies. A significant downgrade in our credit rating could affect our ability to refinance or repay maturing debt obligations, result in increased borrowing costs, decrease the availability of capital from financial institutions or require our subsidiaries to post letters of credit, cash or other assets as collateral with certain counterparties. If we are unable to access the credit and capital markets on commercially reasonable terms, we could experience a material adverse effect on our business.

Our operations depend on our ability to protect our information technology systems, computer equipment and information databases from systems failures or interruptions. We rely on both internal information technology systems and certain external service providers to assist in the management of the day-to-day operation of our business, operate elements of our manufacturing facilities, manage relationships with our employees, customers and suppliers, fulfill customer orders and maintain our financial, accounting or other business records. Failure or interruption of one, or more than one, of our information technology systems to perform as anticipated could be caused by internal or external events or parties, such as incursions by intruders or hackers, computer viruses, cyber-attacks, failures in hardware or software, or power or telecommunication fluctuations or failures. The failure of our information technology systems to perform as anticipated for any reason, or any significant breach of our systems' security, could disrupt our business and result in numerous adverse consequences, including reduced effectiveness and efficiency of operations, increased costs or loss of important information, or loss of sales, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our business. We have technology and information security processes, periodic external service and service provider reviews, insurance policies and disaster recovery plans in place to mitigate our risk to these vulnerabilities. However, these measures may not be adequate to ensure that our operations will not be disrupted or our financial impact minimized, should such an event occur. Our cybersecurity risk management strategy is detailed within Item 1C. - Cybersecurity.

Our industries and each of our business segments experience fluctuating supply and demand, particularly in our Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment, which can result in changes in selling prices. Periods of high demand, tight supply and increasing operating margins tend to result in increases in capacity and production until supply exceeds demand, generally followed by periods of oversupply and declining prices. We believe our operating model can mitigate pricing pressure historically experienced during periods of supply exceeding demand. Nevertheless, we cannot assure you that increased pricing pressure will not affect our operating results in the future during these periods. Another factor influencing demand and pricing for chemical products is the price of energy. Higher natural gas prices increase our customers' and competitors' manufacturing costs and depending on the ratio of crude oil to natural gas prices, could make our customers less competitive in world markets, negatively affecting the demand and pricing for our chemical products. In the chemical industries in which we operate, price is one of the major supplier selection criteria. Pricing is subject to a variety of factors, some of which are outside of our control. Decreases in the average selling prices of our products could have a material adverse effect on our profitability. While we strive to maintain or increase our profitability by executing our operating model and by reducing costs through improving production efficiency, emphasizing higher margin products and by controlling transportation, selling and administrative expenses, we cannot assure you that these efforts will be sufficient to fully offset the effect of possible decreases in pricing on operating results. Chlorine and caustic soda are produced simultaneously and in a fixed ratio of 1.0 ton of chlorine to 1.1 tons of caustic soda. An imbalance in customer demand may require Olin to reduce production of both chlorine and caustic soda or take other steps to correct the imbalance. Since we cannot store large quantities of chlorine, we may not be able to respond to an imbalance in customer demand for these products quickly or efficiently. To mitigate exposure and maximize value from the entire ECU, we continually take a number of actions, including, managing our production rates to the prevailing weaker side of the ECU, leveraging our portfolio of chlorine and chlorine derivatives outlets and entering into purchase for re-sale transactions. If our efforts are not successful and a substantial imbalance occurred, we might need to take actions that could have a material adverse effect on our business. Our Epoxy segment is also subject to changes in operating results as a result of pricing pressures. Selling prices of epoxy materials are affected by changes in raw material costs, including energy, propylene and cumene, customer demand, and global fluctuations in supply and demand. Periods of supply and demand imbalances, particularly changes in trade flows within Asia Pacific markets, particularly China, can result in increased pricing pressure on our epoxy products. Declines in average selling prices of products of our Epoxy segment could have a material adverse effect on our business. Our Winchester segment is also subject to pricing pressures. Selling prices of ammunition are affected by changes in raw material costs and availability, customer demand and industry production capacity. Declines in average selling prices of products of our Winchester segment could have a material adverse effect on our business. We cannot assure you that pricing or profitability in the future will be comparable to any particular historical period, including the most recent period shown in our operating results. We cannot assure you that the chemical industry or ammunition industry will not experience adverse trends in the future.