Nexstar Media Group (NXST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.64B
• Dividend Yield: 4.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 674.47K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.77
• Revenue Growth: 9.61%
• EPS Growth: 128.67%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,773
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 79
• Industry: Entertainment
• EPS (TTM): 22.11
• Shares Outstanding: 30,509,207
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 660,646
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 674,474
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 3.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $206.71
• Price Target Upside: 36.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

Nexstar Media Group demonstrates strong financial performance, driven by revenue growth and efficient management. The technical analysis indicates mixed trends with potential caution due to high RSI. Valuation remains attractive with a low P/E ratio and high dividend yield. The recent earnings call highlighted strategic growth initiatives but also flagged concerns over advertising revenue and subscriber trends. High leverage remains a risk to monitor.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Nexstar deserves credit for exceeding consensus on every revenue metric, with significant improvement in digital revenue and a revenue beat in the non-political advertising segment.

Operational Efficiency

The company's ability to turn a revenue beat into a significant EBITDA beat demonstrates strong operational efficiency and management.

Strategic Growth

Nexstar is using its status as the nation’s largest operator of major network local television broadcast affiliates as a platform it can enhance with technologies including digital ad sales and the advent of ATSC 3.0.

Negative Factors

Advertising

Advertising seems off to a sluggish start to begin the year, Nexstar has minimal big 4 renewals this year, the CW rates do not step up until later in the year, and the elevated sports rights costs against ramping advertising and retrans seems likely to produce another CW loss this year.

Market Conditions

It may be tougher to produce any material outperformance given how political ended and the current challenging trends in the national advertising environment.

Nexstar Media Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) is a leading diversified media company headquartered in the United States. It operates in the broadcast and digital media sectors, primarily focusing on television broadcasting. Nexstar owns, operates, or provides services to numerous television stations across the country, making it one of the largest local television station operators in the U.S. The company also provides digital media services and produces local and national news content, reaching millions of viewers daily.

How the Company Makes Money

Nexstar Media Group generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is advertising revenue, garnered from selling commercial airtime on its television stations to local and national advertisers. The company also earns significant subscription fees from cable and satellite operators who pay to carry Nexstar's local television channels. Additionally, Nexstar capitalizes on its digital media services, which include online advertising and content distribution. Political advertising during election cycles also contributes significantly to its earnings. Moreover, the company benefits from retransmission consent agreements and lucrative partnerships with major networks and content providers, which further bolster its financial performance.

Nexstar Media Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nexstar Media Group exhibits a strong financial performance with robust revenue and profit growth, effective operational management, and solid cash generation. However, the high leverage could pose a risk if not managed prudently. The company is well-positioned within the traditional media industry, although maintaining leverage and operational efficiency will be key to sustaining growth.

Income Statement

Nexstar Media Group has shown strong revenue growth of 9.6% from 2023 to 2024, with a significant improvement in net profit margin from 7.0% in 2023 to 13.4% in 2024. The gross profit margin remains robust at approximately 100% due to the nature of the revenue structure. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong, reflecting efficient operational management. However, there was a slight dip in EBIT margin from 2022, indicating some pressure on operating efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.89 in 2024, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk. However, return on equity is robust at 32.0%, demonstrating efficient use of shareholders' equity. The equity ratio of 19.7% suggests moderate reliance on equity financing, which is typical in the media industry.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a healthy 30% growth in free cash flow from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.73 indicates strong cash generation relative to profit. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.53 further supports the company's solid cash flow position. Despite high financing outflows, the company maintains strong free cash flow, enhancing financial flexibility.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
5.41B	4.93B	5.21B	4.65B	4.50B
	Gross Profit
5.41B	2.81B	3.21B	2.80B	2.79B
	EBIT
1.27B	708.00M	1.31B	1.18B	1.38B
	EBITDA
2.22B	1.79B	2.22B	1.96B	2.00B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
722.00M	346.00M	971.00M	834.00M	811.50M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
144.00M	147.00M	204.10M	190.87M	152.70M
	Total Assets
11.47B	12.08B	12.68B	13.26B	13.40B
	Total Debt
6.52B	7.13B	7.00B	7.46B	7.67B
	Net Debt
6.38B	6.98B	6.80B	7.27B	7.52B
	Total Liabilities
9.20B	9.77B	9.91B	10.41B	10.87B
	Stockholders Equity
2.26B	2.30B	2.74B	2.85B	2.52B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.10B	850.00M	1.25B	1.06B	1.04B
	Operating Cash Flow
1.25B	999.00M	1.40B	1.21B	1.25B
	Investing Cash Flow
-102.00M	-173.00M	125.20M	-232.10M	-39.75M
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.15B	-899.00M	-1.51B	-945.56M	-1.29B

Nexstar Media Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 151.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NXST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 151.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 170.12, below the 50-day MA of 163.39, and below the 200-day MA of 163.29, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 4.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NXST.

Nexstar Media Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FOXA	82 Outperform	$21.40B	10.46	20.09%	1.10%	4.29%	177.70%
NXST	79 Outperform	$4.64B	7.10	31.65%	4.56%	9.61%	128.67%
NWSA	65 Neutral	$15.28B	35.30	5.23%	0.76%	-1.51%	82.74%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$26.33B	3.17	-10.68%	4.33%	2.16%	-43.07%
SBGI	56 Neutral	$876.73M	2.81	71.43%	7.31%	13.21%	―
PARAA	52 Neutral	$7.80B	―	-31.94%	0.88%	-1.48%	-450.15%
LGF.B	37 Underperform	$1.73B	―	259.47%	―	-2.85%	75.96%

Nexstar Media Group Corporate Events

Dennis FitzSimons to Resign from Nexstar Board

On March 21, 2025, Dennis FitzSimons announced his decision not to seek re-election as a director of Nexstar Media Group, Inc. He will complete his current term and resign from the Board and its Audit Committee at the 2025 annual stockholders meeting. His resignation is not due to any disagreement with Nexstar’s management or Board regarding the company’s operations, policies, or practices.