Nio (NIO) AI Stock Analysis

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Nio

(NYSE:NIO)

44Neutral

Nio's stock is currently weighed down by high financial risk and negative profitability, despite strong revenue growth and market share gains in the EV sector. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and the valuation is unattractive with no dividends and negative earnings. Notable positives include the company's strategic expansion and record vehicle deliveries, though these are offset by rising net losses and operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Earnings Improvement

Earnings improvements are expected from intensive model launches, margin improvements on better scale effect, and ongoing cost control.

Infrastructure Investment

NIO's battery swap network received a substantial investment from CATL, enhancing its infrastructure and market position.

Model Launches

NIO plans to launch new models and ramp up mass-market brands, which could drive significant delivery growth.

Negative Factors

Market Competition

The competition in the electric vehicle market remains high, posing challenges to NIO's growth and market share.

Profitability Challenges

Despite a raised sales volume forecast, a net loss is still projected for FY25E and FY26E, indicating challenges in reaching profitability.

Sales Performance

NIO's expected vehicle deliveries for the upcoming quarter are significantly below consensus estimates, reflecting weak performance.

Nio (NIO) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$7.46B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)67.88M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.21

Revenue Growth16.99%

EPS Growth12.99%

CountryUS

Employees32,820

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength63

IndustryAuto - Manufacturers

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-1.53

Shares Outstanding1,946,478,900

10 Day Avg. Volume62,879,108

30 Day Avg. Volume67,880,357

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)1.21

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$4.86

Price Target Upside34.63% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering11

Nio Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNio Inc. (NIO) is a Chinese multinational automobile manufacturer specializing in designing and developing electric vehicles. Founded in 2014 and headquartered in Shanghai, China, the company is a prominent player in the electric vehicle industry, particularly known for its high-performance electric SUVs and sedans. Nio's core products include electric vehicles, battery-swapping technologies, and autonomous driving solutions. The company also provides a range of services to enhance the customer ownership experience, such as battery as a service (BaaS), which allows users to subscribe to battery packs separately from the vehicle purchase.

How the Company Makes MoneyNio generates revenue primarily through the sale of its electric vehicles, which include models like the ES8, ES6, and EC6. The company also earns income from its innovative battery as a service (BaaS) offering, allowing customers to subscribe to battery packs, thereby reducing the initial purchase price of vehicles. Additionally, Nio makes money through its proprietary vehicle charging solutions, including battery swapping stations and public charging infrastructure. The company has cultivated partnerships with various technology firms and suppliers to enhance its vehicle production and technological capabilities, contributing to its revenue streams. Furthermore, Nio's expansion into global markets and the development of autonomous driving technologies present potential future revenue opportunities.

Nio Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nio is experiencing significant revenue growth, with an 18.2% increase from 2023 to 2024. However, the company struggles with profitability, indicated by negative EBIT and net income, alongside a low gross profit margin of 9.9%. The balance sheet shows high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.67, and strained liquidity as evidenced by negative operating and free cash flow.

Income Statement

Neutral

Nio shows consistent revenue growth with a 18.2% increase from 2023 to 2024. However, profitability remains a challenge as evidenced by negative EBIT and net income. The gross profit margin stands at 9.9% in 2024, down from 5.5% in 2023, indicating some improvement but still low for the industry.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.67 in 2024, up significantly from 1.98 in 2023. Stockholders' equity has decreased, and the equity ratio is only 5.5%, suggesting increased financial risk. Return on equity is negative due to ongoing losses.

Cash Flow

Negative

Operating cash flow is negative, reflecting operational challenges. Free cash flow also remains negative, with a decline from 2023 to 2024, indicating strained liquidity. The ratio of operating cash flow to net income is below 1, suggesting inefficiency in converting income into cash.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
63.13B	65.73B	55.62B	49.27B	36.14B	16.26B
	Gross Profit
5.46B	6.49B	3.05B	5.14B	6.82B	1.87B
	EBIT
-22.47B	-21.87B	-22.66B	-15.64B	-4.50B	-4.61B
	EBITDA
-19.65B	-13.93B	-15.15B	-12.79B	-985.36M	-3.33B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-21.12B	-22.66B	-21.15B	-14.44B	-4.02B	-5.30B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
589.83M	22.09B	49.75B	39.06B	52.39B	39.51B
	Total Assets
0.00	107.60B	117.38B	96.26B	82.88B	54.64B
	Total Debt
0.00	33.82B	50.38B	23.71B	20.10B	9.43B
	Net Debt
589.83M	14.49B	17.44B	3.82B	4.77B	-28.99B
	Total Liabilities
0.00	94.10B	91.65B	68.62B	44.82B	27.47B
	Stockholders Equity
945.21M	5.97B	25.55B	23.87B	34.71B	27.17B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
0.00	-16.99B	-15.72B	-10.84B	-2.11B	823.21M
	Operating Cash Flow
0.00	-7.85B	-1.38B	-3.87B	1.97B	1.95B
	Investing Cash Flow
0.00	-4.96B	-10.89B	10.39B	-39.76B	-5.07B
	Financing Cash Flow
0.00	1.77B	27.66B	-1.62B	18.13B	41.36B

Nio Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price3.61

Price Trends

50DMA

4.26

Negative

100DMA

4.36

Negative

200DMA

4.64

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.30

Positive

RSI

41.76

Neutral

STOCH

49.83

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NIO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.96, below the 50-day MA of 4.26, and below the 200-day MA of 4.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NIO.

Nio Risk Analysis

Nio disclosed 122 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nio reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nio Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (59)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LI	73 Outperform	$23.30B	22.14	12.29%	―	15.50%	-32.48%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$11.53B	10.43	-0.22%	4.02%	1.19%	-15.83%
XPEV	58 Neutral	$18.62B	―	-17.11%	―	32.32%	49.34%
RIVN	54 Neutral	$12.97B	―	-60.48%	―	12.09%	17.65%
NIO	44 Neutral	$7.46B	―	-142.49%	―	16.99%	12.99%
LCID	37 Underperform	$7.67B	―	-54.15%	―	35.71%	8.24%
VFS	32 Underperform	$6.81B	―	36.15%	―	―	―

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NIO

Nio

3.61

-0.28

-7.20%

Li Auto

23.85

-4.75

-16.61%

XPEV

XPeng, Inc. ADR

21.08

13.88

192.78%

LCID

Lucid Group

2.53

0.10

4.12%

VFS

VinFast Auto

3.00

-0.26

-7.98%

RIVN

Rivian Automotive

12.03

3.63

43.21%

Nio Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 21, 2025 | % Change Since: -23.35% | Next Earnings Date: Jun 5, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in vehicle deliveries, market share leadership, and network expansion. However, it also noted increased net losses, challenges with the ONVO brand, and rising operating expenses. Despite the positive growth in certain areas, the financial and operational challenges present a balanced view.

Highlights

Record Vehicle Deliveries

NIO delivered a total of 72,689 Smart EVs in Q4 2024, setting a new quarterly record. For the full year, deliveries reached 221,970, marking a 38.7% increase year-over-year.

Market Share Leadership

The NIO brand secured a 40% market share in China's BEV segment priced above RMB300,000. The ONVO L60 ranked among the top three in China's BEV SUV market priced between RMB200,000 and RMB300,000.

Supply Chain and Cost Optimization

NIO's vehicle margin improved to 14.9% in Q4, while the company's overall vehicle margin reached 13.1% due to supply chain optimization and cost control.

Product Expansion

NIO launched the NIO 89 flagship smart executive sedan and scheduled multiple new models and upgrades, including the ONVO L90 and Firefly brand launch in April 2025.

Power Swap and Charging Network Expansion

NIO deployed 3,245 power swap stations worldwide and built over 25,000 power chargers. A record 137,000 battery swaps were made in a single day during the New Year holiday.

Lowlights

Net Loss Increase

Net loss was RMB7.1 billion, showing an increase of 32.5% year-over-year and 40.6% quarter-over-quarter.

ONVO Brand Challenges

ONVO's sales performance did not meet expectations, attributed to low brand awareness, immature sales force, and fierce competition. Recent sales volume was impacted by negative public opinions and PR attacks.

Operating Expenses Increase

SG&A expenses were RMB4.9 billion, up 22.8% year-over-year and 18.7% quarter-over-quarter, driven by increased sales and marketing for new brands and network expansion.

Interest and Investment Loss

Interest and investment loss was RMB0.2 billion, primarily due to the fair value change of equity investment.

Company Guidance

During NIO's 2024 Q4 and full-year earnings call, several key metrics and guidance were highlighted. NIO set a record in Q4 by delivering 72,689 Smart EVs, with December surpassing 30,000 deliveries for the first time, contributing to a total of 221,970 deliveries in 2024—a 38.7% year-over-year increase. The company secured a 40% market share in China's BEV segment priced above RMB300,000, and the ONVO brand delivered 20,761 vehicles. NIO expects Q1 2025 deliveries to reach between 41,000 and 43,000 units, reflecting a 36% to 43% year-over-year growth. Financially, NIO improved its vehicle margin to 14.9% in Q4, and the company's overall vehicle margin reached 13.1%. Total Q4 revenues were RMB19.7 billion, with vehicle sales contributing RMB17.5 billion. For 2025, NIO plans to launch nine new models across three brands and aims to double its sales volume from 2024. The company is also strategically expanding its power swap and charging networks, with 3,245 power swap stations and over 25,000 chargers built globally. NIO remains focused on achieving breakeven by Q4 2025 and enhancing operational efficiency and profitability.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.