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National Grid Transco Plc (NGG)
NYSE:NGG

National Grid Transco (NGG) AI Stock Analysis

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National Grid Transco

(NYSE:NGG)

63Neutral
National Grid Transco's stock performance is primarily challenged by declining revenues and profitability, alongside high leverage and negative Free Cash Flow. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend with weak momentum. However, the high dividend yield and stable operational efficiency provide some support for the valuation. The lack of significant new information from the earnings call further underscores the need for improved financial metrics to enhance the stock's appeal.

National Grid Transco (NGG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

National Grid Transco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUK-based National Grid Plc transmits and distributes electricity and gas. It operates through the following segments: UK Electricity Transmission, UK Gas Transmission, US Regulated, and National Grid Ventures and Other.
How the Company Makes MoneyNational Grid Transco generates revenue through several core streams. Primarily, the company earns money by charging fees for the transmission and distribution of electricity and gas across its network infrastructure. These charges are regulated and determined by energy market regulators, ensuring the company receives a stable and predictable income. Additionally, National Grid engages in ancillary services, providing grid balancing and system services, which also contribute to its revenue. The company may further benefit from strategic partnerships and investments in renewable energy projects and other innovative technologies that align with its long-term growth strategy. Factors such as regulatory frameworks, energy demand, and infrastructure investments play significant roles in its financial performance.

National Grid Transco Financial Statement Overview

Summary
National Grid Transco shows solid operational performance but faces challenges with declining revenues and profitability. The high leverage and negative Free Cash Flow are potential risks. The company must focus on improving revenue streams and managing debt levels to enhance financial stability and growth prospects.
Income Statement
70
Positive
The income statement shows a decline in Total Revenue and Net Income in the most recent year compared to the previous year, with a significant drop in Net Profit Margin. The Gross Profit Margin is stable, reflecting good control over direct costs. However, the decline in revenue and profits indicates potential challenges in maintaining growth.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet highlights a high Debt-to-Equity Ratio, which could pose a risk if interest rates rise. However, the company maintains a healthy equity base, as evidenced by the Equity Ratio, indicating stability. Increasing liabilities relative to equity could be a concern if not managed properly.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The cash flow statement reveals negative Free Cash Flow in the latest year, primarily due to high capital expenditures. The Operating Cash Flow remains positive, indicating operational efficiency. A negative Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio could affect future liquidity if not improved.
Breakdown
Mar 2024
Income StatementTotal Revenue
19.85B
Gross Profit
14.55B
EBIT
4.47B
EBITDA
6.83B
Net Income Common Stockholders
2.29B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
4.25B
Total Assets
98.33B
Total Debt
47.07B
Net Debt
46.52B
Total Liabilities
68.43B
Stockholders Equity
29.87B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-514.00M
Operating Cash Flow
6.94B
Investing Cash Flow
-7.50B
Financing Cash Flow
987.00M

National Grid Transco Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price63.81
Price Trends
50DMA
60.98
Positive
100DMA
61.34
Positive
200DMA
61.99
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.66
Negative
RSI
61.33
Neutral
STOCH
90.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 63.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.13, above the 50-day MA of 60.98, and above the 200-day MA of 61.99, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NGG.

National Grid Transco Risk Analysis

National Grid Transco disclosed 9 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Grid Transco reported the most risks in the “Macro & Political” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

National Grid Transco Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
DUDUK
77
Outperform
$93.77B21.259.10%3.44%4.46%54.09%
SOSO
77
Outperform
$98.96B22.6713.61%3.19%5.83%10.23%
EDED
74
Outperform
$38.06B20.548.44%3.10%4.23%-27.02%
AEAEP
73
Outperform
$56.51B18.9611.37%3.42%2.76%31.53%
EXEXC
72
Outperform
$44.65B18.119.34%3.47%5.98%4.99%
65
Neutral
$12.07B14.736.75%4.34%7.37%3.49%
NGNGG
63
Neutral
$61.65B23.545.18%5.43%-3.25%-76.46%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NGG
National Grid Transco
63.81
3.12
5.14%
AEP
American Electric Power
105.84
26.06
32.66%
ED
Consolidated Edison
107.49
21.45
24.93%
DUK
Duke Energy
119.31
27.45
29.88%
EXC
Exelon
44.44
9.29
26.43%
SO
Southern Co
89.60
21.72
32.00%

National Grid Transco Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Nov 7, 2024 | % Change Since: 1.14% | Next Earnings Date: May 15, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call conveyed a positive outlook with strong financial performance, record capital investment, and strategic progress. While there are challenges in the supply chain and regulatory negotiations ahead, the company's strategic initiatives and growth plans are well underway and supported by recent financial moves.
Highlights
Strong Financial Performance
National Grid reported a 15% increase in underlying operating profit, amounting to £2 billion, with underlying earnings per share rising 8% to 28.1p.
Record Capital Investment
The company achieved a record £4.6 billion in capital investment in the first half, up 19% year-on-year, driven by major projects in both the UK and US.
Successful Rights Issue
Completion of a £7 billion rights issue positioned the balance sheet to support growth, allowing for a £60 billion investment over five years.
Progress on Strategic Milestones
Sale of the final 20% stake in the UK gas transmission business for £686 million and progress on major projects like the London Power Tunnels.
Regulatory Advances
New rates agreed for the New York gas business and Massachusetts electric business, enhancing investment visibility.
Lowlights
Challenges in Transformer Supply Chain
Longer lead times for supergrid transformers acknowledged, with efforts to manage supply chain risks continuing.
Potential Regulatory Challenges
Ongoing need to negotiate favorable terms with Ofgem and ensure attractive financial frameworks in light of extensive regulatory developments.
Company Guidance
During the call, National Grid provided comprehensive guidance on their future investment strategy and financial performance. The company plans to invest around £60 billion in its network over the next five years, with an expected asset growth rate of approximately 10% annually. In the first half of the fiscal year, they achieved a record capital investment of £4.6 billion, marking a 19% year-on-year increase. In the U.K., their construction is underway on various ASTI projects, while in the U.S., regulated capital expenditure rose by 20% year-on-year, partially due to a $4 billion upstate upgrade program. Financially, National Grid reported a 15% increase in underlying operating profit to £2 billion, driven by strong performance across regulated businesses and resulting in an 8% rise in underlying earnings per share to 28.1p. The company declared an interim dividend of 15.84p per share, reflecting their commitment to delivering sustainable shareholder returns.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.