nCino (NCNO) AI Stock Analysis

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nCino

(NASDAQ:NCNO)

58Neutral

nCino's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its strong revenue growth and solid balance sheet. However, persistent profitability challenges and bearish technical indicators weigh down the score. Positive strategic initiatives and leadership changes are promising, but the company must overcome execution challenges to improve its outlook.

Positive Factors

Growth Strategy

NCino's growth strategy and commitment to becoming a Rule-of-40 business is encouraging.

Market Expansion

Management expects gross bookings to accelerate throughout fiscal 2026, which should help the company return to double-digit growth in fiscal 2027.

Negative Factors

Guidance and Expectations

Disappointing fiscal 2026 guidance appears to be primarily driven by softer-than-expected bookings in fiscal 2025.

Sales Execution

Challenged sales execution and longer than anticipated acquisition integration are affecting the outlook.

nCino (NCNO) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.55B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.94M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.67

Revenue Growth13.45%

EPS Growth12.86%

CountryUS

Employees1,833

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength65

IndustrySoftware - Application

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.12

Shares Outstanding115,215,190

10 Day Avg. Volume1,775,681

30 Day Avg. Volume2,939,366

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.59

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.51

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$25.75

Price Target Upside12.79% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering13

nCino Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionnCino, Inc. (NCNO) is a cloud-based software company specializing in digital transformation solutions for financial institutions. The company offers a comprehensive platform that integrates with core banking systems to streamline and automate various banking processes. Its flagship product, the nCino Bank Operating System, enhances customer engagement and operational efficiencies by providing solutions for loan origination, deposit account opening, and compliance management.

How the Company Makes MoneynCino generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its cloud-based software solutions, which are typically sold under multi-year contracts to financial institutions. The company charges its clients based on the number of users or the volume of transactions processed through its platform. Additionally, nCino offers professional services, including implementation, training, and consulting, which contribute to its revenue. Strategic partnerships with core banking system providers and other fintech companies also play a role in expanding its market reach and enhancing its platform capabilities.

nCino Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Remaining Performance Obligations

Remaining Performance Obligations
Reflects the value of contracted revenue yet to be recognized, offering a view into future revenue streams and business stability.

Chart InsightsnCino's Remaining Performance Obligations have shown a robust upward trajectory, particularly in 2024, reflecting strong demand and successful customer acquisition. This aligns with their earnings call focus on sustainable growth and AI-driven efficiency. However, challenges in European markets and macroeconomic headwinds could temper future growth. The strategic shift to platform pricing and investments in sales and marketing are expected to bolster subscription revenue, while new customer wins and product innovations provide optimism for continued momentum despite execution challenges.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

nCino Financial Statement Overview

Summary

nCino shows strong revenue growth and a solid balance sheet, with significant equity backing and low debt levels. However, persistent losses and reliance on external financing indicate operational and profitability challenges. Continued focus on achieving profitability and sustainable cash flow will be crucial for long-term success.

Income Statement

Positive

nCino has shown impressive revenue growth with a CAGR of approximately 31% from 2020 to 2025. The gross profit margin remains strong, averaging above 60%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the company is still unprofitable with negative net income and EBIT margins, which reflects ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet is strong with a high equity ratio, showing a stable financial structure and low leverage, as evidenced by a decreasing debt-to-equity ratio. However, the company has yet to achieve positive return on equity due to its current loss-making position.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Despite operating cash flow being positive and growing, the free cash flow growth is inconsistent, reflecting potential volatility in cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, but the dependency on external financing is evident.

Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
540.66M	476.54M	273.87M	204.29M	204.29M
	Gross Profit
324.79M	285.07M	162.45M	116.16M	116.16M
	EBIT
-18.13M	-39.51M	-71.36M	-42.61M	-42.61M
	EBITDA
9.55M	7.46M	-56.47M	-59.90M	-33.12M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-37.88M	-42.35M	-50.12M	-41.27M	-40.54M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
120.93M	112.08M	88.01M	371.43M	371.43M
	Total Assets
1.61B	1.34B	1.30B	563.40M	563.40M
	Total Debt
236.82M	74.23M	48.84M	16.26M	16.26M
	Net Debt
115.90M	-37.86M	-39.17M	-355.16M	-355.16M
	Total Liabilities
512.78M	287.83M	230.51M	134.43M	134.43M
	Stockholders Equity
1.09B	1.05B	1.07B	425.18M	425.18M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
53.38M	53.41M	-24.69M	4.88M	4.88M
	Operating Cash Flow
55.20M	57.28M	-19.23M	9.22M	9.22M
	Investing Cash Flow
-219.18M	-6.33M	-278.49M	-4.34M	-4.34M
	Financing Cash Flow
170.48M	-21.11M	15.92M	274.12M	274.12M

nCino Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price22.83

Price Trends

50DMA

25.98

Negative

100DMA

29.80

Negative

200DMA

32.29

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.84

Negative

RSI

48.33

Neutral

STOCH

58.34

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCNO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 22.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.23, below the 50-day MA of 25.98, and below the 200-day MA of 32.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NCNO.

nCino Risk Analysis

nCino disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. nCino reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

nCino Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YOU	78 Outperform	$3.48B	16.11	78.61%	1.71%	25.57%	476.09%
SEMR	72 Outperform	$1.54B	187.88	2.81%	―	22.47%	872.41%
ALKT	63 Neutral	$2.83B	―	-11.33%	―	26.55%	38.37%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$10.77B	10.41	-6.71%	2.99%	7.69%	-13.12%
QTWO	59 Neutral	$4.94B	―	-3.95%	―	11.50%	42.50%
NCNO	58 Neutral	$2.55B	―	-3.54%	―	13.45%	12.86%
NRDY	48 Neutral	$297.39M	―	-92.62%	―	-1.64%	9.99%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NCNO

nCino

23.77

-7.04

-22.85%

QTWO

Q2 Holdings

90.79

27.92

44.41%

NRDY

Nerdy

1.63

-0.69

-29.74%

SEMR

SEMrush Holdings

10.00

-5.29

-34.60%

ALKT

Alkami Technology

29.44

3.07

11.64%

YOU

Clear Secure

24.28

6.90

39.70%

nCino Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 01, 2025

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: -18.81%|

Next Earnings Date:May 28, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with strong subscription revenue growth and international expansion being overshadowed by execution challenges in Europe, higher churn rates, and macroeconomic headwinds impacting bookings. New product innovations and customer wins provide optimism for future growth.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Subscription Revenue Growth

Subscription revenues increased by 16% year-over-year in Q4 to $125 million, and by 15% for the full fiscal year to $469.2 million.

International Revenue Surge

Non-U.S. total revenues were up 34% year-over-year in Q4, with a 38% increase in constant currency.

AI Banking Innovation

nCino is focusing on AI to improve efficiency with products like Banking Advisor, which has reduced banking processes from days to seconds.

New Customer Wins

nCino added over 20 new Consumer Lending deals in Q4, including two large banks with $50 billion and $80 billion in assets.

Expanding Product Offerings

nCino's acquisitions of DocFox, FullCircl, and others are expected to contribute positively to future financial performance and product offerings.

Negative Updates

Execution Challenges in Europe

Sales execution and urgency in European markets were not as effective, impacting growth in the region.

Lagging Revenue Growth

nCino's revenue growth is expected to be lower in fiscal '26 due to trailing factors and difficult year-over-year comparisons.

Higher Churn Rates

Total churn in fiscal '25 was $26 million, with mortgage churn at $9 million, impacting subscription revenue retention rates.

Macroeconomic Headwinds

The rapid rise in interest rates and liquidity crisis dampened sales momentum and new bookings growth in fiscal '25.

Temporary Decline in Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow was negative $10.4 million in Q4 due to acquisition-related costs and other factors.

Company Guidance

During nCino's Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance emphasizing a focus on sustainable, profitable growth and leveraging AI to enhance efficiency and customer financials. They reported total revenues of $540.7 million for fiscal 2025, a 13% increase year-over-year, with subscription revenues growing by 15% to $469.2 million. The company highlighted a strategic shift to platform pricing, projected to contribute approximately 1% to subscription revenue growth in fiscal 2026. Additionally, nCino's leadership changes and investments in sales and marketing, especially in the European and credit union markets, are expected to drive future growth. They are targeting a 19% organic net ACV bookings growth in fiscal 2026 and plan to achieve the Rule of 40 by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2027. The company also announced a $100 million stock repurchase program, reflecting confidence in their strategic direction and market position.

nCino Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesM&A TransactionsStock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

nCino Reports Strong Revenue Growth and New CEO Appointment

Positive

Apr 1, 2025

On April 1, 2025, nCino reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, showing significant growth in revenues and subscription services. Despite a GAAP net loss, the company achieved a 14% increase in total revenues for the quarter and a 13% increase for the fiscal year, with subscription revenues growing by 16% and 15% respectively. The company also announced a $100 million stock repurchase program, reflecting confidence in its strategy to generate stockholder value. Recent business highlights include the appointment of Sean Desmond as CEO, the acquisition of Sandbox Banking to enhance data connectivity, and new partnerships with major banks in the U.S. and the Czech Republic.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

nCino Expands Board with New Strategic Appointment

Positive

Feb 10, 2025

On February 10, 2025, nCino announced a cooperation agreement with HMI Capital, resulting in the appointment of Justin Nyweide to its Board of Directors and the Audit Committee. This strategic move, effective immediately, expands nCino’s board to ten members and aligns with the company’s growth objectives by leveraging Nyweide’s extensive investment expertise. The agreement with HMI Capital, a major shareholder, includes provisions for voting and standstill arrangements, potentially impacting nCino’s governance and strategic direction.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.