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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL)
NYSE:NCDL
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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
(NYSE:NCDL)79Outperform
Positive Factors
Liquidity Improvement
Improvement in liquidity is expected to persist, which is seen as a positive for NCDL’s valuation over time.
Management Confidence
An executive buying shares of their stock is viewed positively as it signifies confidence in the business.
Negative Factors
Valuation Discount
The biggest driver of the current valuation discount has been the lack of liquidity in shares since the IPO.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$896.44M
Dividend Yield10.43%
Average Volume (3M)253.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.0
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth56.74%
EPS Growth34.20%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAsset Management Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.16
Shares Outstanding51,967,308
10 Day Avg. Volume310,876
30 Day Avg. Volume253,226
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.22
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)18.70
P/FCF Ratio6.80
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.00Price Target Upside10.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) is a financial services company that specializes in providing customized, flexible financing solutions to middle-market companies across various industries. As a direct lender, NCDL offers a range of credit products, including senior secured loans, unitranche loans, and junior capital, to support businesses in achieving their growth objectives and strategic initiatives.
How the Company Makes MoneyNCDL makes money primarily through interest income generated from the loans it provides to middle-market companies. By offering a diverse portfolio of credit products, the company earns interest payments over the life of the loans, which constitute a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, NCDL may generate income from loan origination fees and other related financial services. The company's partnerships with institutional investors and its strategic positioning within the credit market enable it to maintain a steady flow of investment opportunities, contributing to its earnings.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. has shown strong revenue growth and profitability, with high gross profit and EBIT margins. The balance sheet is solid with significant asset growth and no current debt, but recent cash flow challenges and increased liabilities require careful management.Income Statement
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. has demonstrated strong revenue growth over recent years, increasing from $13.7 million in 2020 to $224 million in 2024. The gross profit and EBIT margins are notably high, reflecting strong operational efficiency. However, the absence of EBITDA data in the latest period limits a complete profitability analysis.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet is solid, with total assets growing significantly from $353 million in 2020 to $2.14 billion in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved substantially, with no debt reported in the latest period, indicating financial stability. High stockholders' equity provides a strong equity ratio, though the rapid increase in liabilities in recent years poses a potential risk.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow from operations has shown fluctuations, with a significant negative operating cash flow in 2024. Free cash flow has also deteriorated, moving from positive in prior years to negative in the most recent period. This indicates potential liquidity challenges, despite historically positive cash flow metrics.70
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 224.04M | 153.80M | 82.19M | 37.11M | 13.71M | Gross Profit |
| 224.04M | 141.85M | 73.80M | 32.60M | 11.79M | EBIT |
| 218.01M | 137.14M | 36.99M | 51.51M | 3.81M | EBITDA |
| 0.00 | 137.14M | 42.98M | 37.09M | 6.63M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 116.32M | 75.94M | 17.29M | 27.27M | 2.15M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 43.25M | 67.44M | 39.32M | 35.19M | 12.61M | Total Assets |
| 2.14B | 1.73B | 1.25B | 820.92M | 353.46M | Total Debt |
| 0.00 | 943.94M | 699.77M | 2.65M | 188.28M | Net Debt |
| -43.25M | -67.39M | 660.45M | -32.53M | 175.67M | Total Liabilities |
| 1.17B | 982.98M | 287.00K | 193.00K | 195.82M | Stockholders Equity |
| 970.32M | 747.88M | 1.25B | 820.92M | 157.64M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -297.20M | 73.05M | 25.14M | 41.32M | 7.52M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -297.20M | 73.05M | 25.14M | 41.32M | 7.52M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 0.00 | -442.57M | -452.99M | -429.62M | -159.25M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 273.06M | 397.65M | 431.93M | 411.70M | 161.33M |
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Technical Analysis
Positive
17.25
Price Trends
17.03
Positive
16.78
Positive
16.55
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Positive
48.49
Neutral
17.93
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCDL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.45, above the 50-day MA of 17.03, and above the 200-day MA of 16.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.93 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NCDL.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Risk Analysis
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $896.44M | 8.03 | 13.54% | 10.43% | 56.74% | 34.20% | |
77 Outperform | $5.11B | 10.02 | 19.26% | 5.06% | 51.80% | 12.05% | |
76 Outperform | $15.07B | 9.43 | 12.40% | 8.34% | 19.95% | -10.57% | |
74 Outperform | $980.71M | 8.01 | 12.06% | 11.03% | 93.63% | 24.41% | |
72 Outperform | $1.44B | 22.62 | 3.96% | 14.52% | -28.04% | -69.52% | |
58 Neutral | $702.74M | ― | -8.57% | 16.35% | 8.24% | -207.60% | |
55 Neutral | $4.94B | -12.70 | -22.85% | 4.19% | 34.55% | -59.69% |
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
NCDL
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
17.25
2.45
16.55%
MAIN
Main Street Capital
57.65
15.06
35.36%
PFLT
Pennantpark $
11.14
0.98
9.65%
ARCC
Ares Capital
22.45
3.54
18.72%
TCPC
BlackRock TCP Capital
8.26
-1.00
-10.80%
GSBD
Goldman Sachs BDC
12.24
-1.43
-10.46%
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 27, 2025 | % Change Since: -2.87% | Next Earnings Date: May 8, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong performance for 2024 with significant achievements such as a successful IPO, robust returns, and record origination volumes. However, challenges like spread compression and restructuring impacts slightly tempered the results.Highlights
Successful IPO and Market Listing
NCDL completed its initial public offering in January 2024 and listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
Strong Return on Equity
NCDL generated a 12.4% return on equity on net investment income for the full year of 2024.
Significant Increase in New Investments
The investment team deployed over $950 million of new investments, marking an increase of over 40% year-over-year.
Low Nonaccrual Rate
The investment portfolio ended the year with only one portfolio company on nonaccrual status, representing 0.1% of the total portfolio at fair value.
Record Origination Volume
The Churchill platform experienced a record year of origination volume, investing over $13 billion across approximately 400 transactions.
Lowlights
Spread Compression
Increased competitive dynamics in the private credit market drove spread compression throughout 2024, although it stabilized in the fourth quarter.
Modest Decline in Investment Income
Quarter-over-quarter, total investment income declined modestly due to the decline in base rates despite a year-over-year increase.
Impact of Restructurings
Fourth-quarter net income was negatively impacted by $0.02 per share due to net realized and unrealized losses from the restructuring of two portfolio investments.
Company Guidance
During the fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL), several key financial metrics were highlighted. NCDL reported a return on equity (ROE) of 12.4% on net investment income for the year. The company paid total distributions of $2.10 per share, offering an 11.6% yield based on the year-end net asset value (NAV) of $18.18 per share. New investments reached over $950 million, a 40% increase year-over-year, while the net investment income for Q4 2024 was $0.56 per share, covering the regular and special dividends of $0.55 per share. The investment portfolio remained robust, with only 0.1% of the portfolio on nonaccrual status. NCDL's debt-to-equity ratio stood at 1.15x, within the target range of 1.0x to 1.25x. Despite market challenges, the company's weighted average internal risk rating was stable at 4.1, and the portfolio's credit quality remained strong, with leverage at 4.9x and interest coverage at 2.2x. Looking forward, NCDL aims to continue its focus on the middle market pipeline, leveraging its extensive network and maintaining a diversified portfolio.Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Corporate Events
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Nuveen Churchill Reports Strong 2024 Financial Results
Positive
Feb 27, 2025
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. reported its financial results for the full year and fourth quarter ending December 31, 2024, on February 27, 2025. The company achieved a net investment income of $0.56 per share for the fourth quarter and declared a first-quarter regular distribution of $0.45 per share. The company experienced a strong year with over $950 million in new investments, reflecting a 40% increase year-over-year. NCDL’s portfolio saw an increase in fair value to $2.08 billion across 210 companies, and the company remains well-positioned with ample liquidity and no near-term debt maturities. The financial results indicate a robust performance with a return on equity of over 12% for the year, supported by high-quality new originations and strategic balance sheet optimization.
Executive/Board Changes
Nuveen Churchill Board Member Michael Perry Resigns
Neutral
Feb 14, 2025
On February 10, 2025, Michael Perry resigned from the Board of Directors of Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp., effective immediately, without any expressed disagreement with the company’s practices. Following his resignation, the Board reduced its size from seven to six directors, indicating a streamlined governance approach.
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Nuveen Churchill Ends Loan Agreement with Wells Fargo
Neutral
Jan 29, 2025
On January 23, 2025, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. and its affiliate SPV V terminated their Loan and Security Agreement with Wells Fargo, having fulfilled all related financial obligations. This termination indicates a strategic shift in the company’s financial arrangements, potentially impacting its operational flexibility and stakeholder relations.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.