Niagen Bioscience (NAGE) AI Stock Analysis

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Niagen Bioscience

(NASDAQ:NAGE)

71Outperform

Chromadex's overall score reflects its strong financial performance with improved profitability and cash flow, despite revenue growth challenges. The stock shows positive technical momentum but is overvalued based on its P/E ratio. The promising outlook from the earnings call, despite some operational challenges, supports a favorable stock assessment.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trials

Key clinical study in Parkinson's disease is expected to yield results, with previous studies showing NR therapy to be well tolerated and associated with clinical improvement.

International Sales

A significant portion of the company's revenue comes from international sales unaffected by recent trade policy changes, including a key revenue stream from a duty-free market in Hong Kong.

Revenue Growth

ChromaDex reported $25.6M in top-line revenue, modestly ahead of the forecast for $25M.

Negative Factors

Regulatory Challenges

If the NO-PARK results prove positive, Niagen Bioscience is expected to explore the possibility of obtaining regulatory approval for a pharmaceutical-grade formulation of NR to treat Parkinson's disease, possibly through a spinout company or joint venture with a pharmaceutical company as partner.

Sales and Marketing Expenses

Sales and marketing expenses accounted for only 27.5% of net sales vs. 31% in the year-ago period.

Niagen Bioscience (NAGE) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$535.70M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)700.76K

Price to Earnings (P/E)65.4

Beta (1Y)0.73

Revenue Growth19.18%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees104

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength64

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.10

Shares Outstanding77,750,450

10 Day Avg. Volume722,332

30 Day Avg. Volume700,761

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)6.05

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$9.03

Price Target Upside31.06% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

Niagen Bioscience Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionChromaDex (CDXC) is a global bioscience company dedicated to improving human health by providing innovative solutions based on scientific research. The company operates primarily in the dietary supplement sector, focusing on its flagship ingredient, Niagen, a proprietary form of nicotinamide riboside (NR), which is a precursor to NAD+ - a molecule essential for cellular energy production and repair. ChromaDex's core product offering includes Tru Niagen, a dietary supplement designed to promote healthy aging by boosting NAD+ levels in the body.

How the Company Makes MoneyChromaDex makes money through the sale of its proprietary ingredient, Niagen, and its branded dietary supplement product, Tru Niagen. The company generates revenue primarily via direct-to-consumer sales through its e-commerce platform as well as through retail partnerships with major retailers and distributors. Additionally, ChromaDex licenses its ingredient technology to third parties, which further contributes to its revenue streams. The company also invests in research and development to support product efficacy claims, enhance brand credibility, and expand its market reach through scientific validation and partnerships with research institutions.

Niagen Bioscience Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Chromadex demonstrates significant financial improvement with a shift to profitability and enhanced cash flow generation. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, but declining revenue trends pose a risk to long-term growth. Addressing revenue growth challenges will be key.

Income Statement

Positive

Chromadex shows a substantial recovery in net income from a loss of $4.94M in 2023 to a profit of $8.55M in 2024, indicating strong profitability improvements. However, revenue decreased from $83.57M in 2023 to $61.59M in 2024, resulting in a negative revenue growth rate, which is a concern. The company achieved a positive EBIT margin, shifting from a negative margin in the previous year, reflecting improved operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company has a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06, indicating low leverage. The equity ratio increased to 67.5% in 2024, up from 51.8% in 2023, highlighting a solid capital structure. Return on equity improved significantly with positive net income, reflecting enhanced shareholder value. The balance sheet is robust, but a reduction in total revenue could impact future stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

Chromadex's free cash flow increased significantly from $6.97M in 2023 to $11.95M in 2024, showcasing strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating efficient conversion of income into cash. Despite a decrease in investing cash flow, the strong free cash flow growth signals good financial health.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
99.60M	83.57M	72.05M	67.45M	59.26M
	Gross Profit
61.59M	50.78M	42.80M	41.49M	35.27M
	EBIT
7.73M	-5.60M	-18.63M	-27.07M	-19.85M
	EBITDA
9.21M	-3.89M	-16.74M	-25.45M	-18.34M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
8.55M	-4.94M	-16.54M	-27.13M	-19.93M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
44.51M	27.17M	20.29M	28.02M	16.50M
	Total Assets
68.28M	54.96M	54.06M	57.84M	38.36M
	Total Debt
2.65M	3.28M	4.26M	4.70M	1.64M
	Net Debt
-41.86M	-23.90M	-16.03M	-23.32M	-14.86M
	Total Liabilities
22.18M	26.51M	25.39M	26.11M	21.93M
	Stockholders Equity
46.09M	28.46M	28.67M	31.73M	16.42M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
11.95M	6.97M	-15.43M	-24.57M	-10.74M
	Operating Cash Flow
12.11M	7.12M	-15.10M	-24.16M	-10.60M
	Investing Cash Flow
-143.00K	-143.00K	-334.00K	-409.00K	-165.00K
	Financing Cash Flow
5.37M	-90.00K	7.65M	36.09M	8.65M

Niagen Bioscience Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price6.89

Price Trends

50DMA

6.60

Positive

100DMA

6.32

Positive

200DMA

5.08

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.09

Negative

RSI

54.31

Neutral

STOCH

90.82

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NAGE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.54, above the 50-day MA of 6.60, and above the 200-day MA of 5.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.82 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NAGE.

Niagen Bioscience Risk Analysis

Niagen Bioscience disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Niagen Bioscience reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Niagen Bioscience Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NAGE	71 Outperform	$535.70M	65.43	22.94%	―	19.18%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$5.20B	3.26	-40.65%	2.93%	17.72%	1.93%
SVA	50 Neutral	$460.27M	―	-1.44%	―	1.98%	63.69%
MRVI	47 Neutral	$491.46M	―	-39.04%	―	-10.30%	-14.44%
BCYC	46 Neutral	$602.91M	―	-29.06%	―	30.27%	44.12%
OPT	39 Underperform	$472.53M	―		―	-25.10%	-7.06%
SANA	30 Underperform	$389.29M	―	-99.17%	―	―	19.94%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NAGE

Niagen Bioscience

7.19

3.79

111.47%

SVA

Sinovac Biotech

6.47

0.00

0.00%

BCYC

Bicycle Therapeutics

8.67

-14.00

-61.76%

OPT

Opthea Limited Sponsored ADR

3.20

-0.23

-6.71%

MRVI

Maravai Lifesciences Holdings

2.10

-5.57

-72.62%

SANA

Sana Biotechnology

1.71

-6.87

-80.07%

Niagen Bioscience Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 4, 2025 | % Change Since: 23.04% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects a strong financial performance with record revenues, increased cash flow, and improved operational efficiency. However, the company faces challenges in the supply chain and regulatory landscape, necessitating vigilance against market competitors' misleading practices. Overall, the positive financial results and strategic initiatives suggest a promising outlook despite these challenges.

Highlights

Record-Breaking Revenue and Growth

ChromaDex delivered record revenues of $29.1 million for Q4 2024, a 37% increase year-over-year, and net income of $7.2 million. Full year net revenues were $99.6 million, a 19% growth YOY.

Strong Cash Flow and Financial Position

Generated $12.1 million in positive cash flow from operations in 2024, ended the year with $44.7 million in cash and no debt.

E-commerce and Ingredient Business Growth

E-commerce channel net sales were $17.3 million, a 30% increase YOY. Food grade and pharmaceutical-grade Niagen ingredient business had net sales of $5.3 million, a 96% increase YOY.

Improved Operational Efficiency

Gross margins improved by 150 basis points to 62.5% in Q4 2024, reflecting operational efficiency and a strategic business mix.

Reduction in Expenses

Selling and marketing expenses as a percentage of net sales improved by 90 basis points, and general and administrative expenses decreased by $6.6 million YOY.

Strategic Initiatives and Name Change

ChromaDex plans to announce a company name change to better represent its strategic direction and growth.

Lowlights

Supply Chain Challenges for Niagen IV

Issues in the pharmaceutical-grade supply chain delayed the availability of Niagen IV by 2 to 3 months, affecting sales.

Regulatory and Market Challenges

Faced challenges with misleading and dangerous practices by competitors in the NAD market, including patent infringements and false claims.

FDA and FTC Regulatory Actions Needed

Company expressed the need for more action from the FDA and FTC to prevent consumer deception in the NAD market.

Company Guidance

During the ChromaDex Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2024 earnings call, the company reported record revenues of $29.1 million, marking a 37% year-over-year increase, and net income of $7.2 million for the quarter. For the full year, ChromaDex achieved net revenues of $99.6 million, a 19% growth from the previous year, and net income of $8.6 million. The company generated a positive cash flow of $12.1 million from operations in 2024 and ended the year with $44.7 million in cash and no debt. The e-commerce channel experienced a 30% year-over-year growth with net sales of $17.3 million, while the Niagen ingredient business saw a 96% increase in sales year-over-year. Gross margins improved by 150 basis points to 62.5% in the fourth quarter. For 2025, ChromaDex projects an 18% growth in net sales, with anticipated modest improvements in gross margins. The company also plans to increase R&D and general administrative expenses while maintaining operational efficiency. Additionally, a corporate rebranding is expected to be announced in the coming weeks.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.