Murphy USA (MUSA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.30B
• Dividend Yield: 0.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 269.61K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.22
• Revenue Growth: -5.97%
• EPS Growth: -5.45%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 24.20
• Shares Outstanding: 19,794,836
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 242,869
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 269,605
• PEG Ratio: 11.58
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.48
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 8.90
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $564.80
• Price Target Upside: 23.26% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

Murphy USA's stock score reflects solid financial performance and strategic initiatives but is weighed down by technical analysis indicators showing a bearish trend and moderate valuation metrics. Earnings call results and corporate events provide a mixed outlook, balancing growth potentials with operational and market challenges.

Positive Factors

Competitive Advantage

Murphy USA's ownership of access to the Colonial pipeline creates a significant competitive advantage that is not easily replicated.

Earnings Potential

Investors are underestimating earnings potential from new and remodeled stores, improved merchandising, and structurally rising fuel margins.

Financial Performance

Strong cost control drove the beat and was spread evenly across store operating expenses and SG&A.

Negative Factors

Consumer Trends

QuickChek and its food-led offer continues to see pressure from changing consumer trends and 'value wars' amongst QSR peers.

Market Estimates

Q1 estimates add risk due to high retail screens, though early data are encouraging.

Murphy USA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Murphy USA Inc. engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,679 retail gasoline stores principally in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest United States. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas.

How the Company Makes Money

Murphy USA generates revenue through the sale of retail fuel and convenience merchandise. The majority of the company's income comes from fuel sales, as it sells millions of gallons of gasoline annually to consumers across its extensive network of stations. Additionally, Murphy USA benefits from the sale of convenience store items, which includes snacks, drinks, and other everyday necessities. The company's strategic placement near Walmart stores helps attract a steady flow of traffic, enhancing its sales opportunities. Furthermore, Murphy USA may engage in partnerships and promotional activities with suppliers and brands to drive additional revenue and customer engagement.

Murphy USA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Murphy USA demonstrates strong operational efficiency and profitability with solid margins and return on equity. However, the company faces challenges with high leverage and declining revenue and free cash flow, which could impact future financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Murphy USA shows a solid gross profit margin of 28.54% in TTM, demonstrating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin at 2.48% suggests room for improvement in profitability. Revenue has decreased by 5.96% from the previous year, indicating a slowdown in growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate at 3.67% and 4.70% respectively, reflecting stable operating performance despite revenue challenges.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio is high at 2.79, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk if revenues decline. Return on equity is robust at 59.81%, showcasing strong profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio of 18.50% shows limited equity financing, suggesting potential vulnerability to financial stress.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has decreased by 40.11% compared to the previous year, raising concerns about cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.19, indicating efficient cash conversion from earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 0.53, reflecting constraints in free cash flow relative to profitability.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
20.24B	21.53B	23.45B	17.36B	11.26B
	Gross Profit
20.24B	20.51B	2.40B	1.85B	1.44B
	EBIT
742.90M	826.00M	968.40M	604.00M	559.00M
	EBITDA
996.70M	1.07B	1.19B	820.30M	722.70M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
502.50M	556.80M	672.90M	396.90M	386.10M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
47.00M	124.90M	78.40M	256.40M	163.60M
	Total Assets
4.54B	4.34B	4.12B	4.05B	2.69B
	Total Debt
2.37B	2.27B	2.25B	2.22B	1.00B
	Net Debt
2.32B	2.15B	2.19B	1.97B	838.80M
	Total Liabilities
3.70B	3.51B	3.48B	3.24B	1.90B
	Stockholders Equity
840.10M	828.90M	640.70M	807.20M	784.10M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
32.80M	448.40M	689.40M	462.70M	333.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
32.80M	784.00M	994.70M	737.40M	563.70M
	Investing Cash Flow
-445.80M	-323.60M	-319.30M	-914.20M	-224.30M
	Financing Cash Flow
-472.60M	-403.10M	-871.30M	269.60M	-456.10M

Murphy USA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 458.22
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MUSA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 458.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 456.83, below the 50-day MA of 470.62, and below the 200-day MA of 494.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.60 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MUSA.

Murphy USA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CASY	74 Outperform	$15.43B	28.98	16.82%	0.46%	6.56%	14.06%
CHWY	73 Outperform	$13.04B	35.11	101.78%	―	6.40%	891.13%
ASO	69 Neutral	$2.52B	6.56	21.14%	1.22%	-3.67%	-14.66%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$11.18B	10.04	-1.58%	3.96%	1.31%	-16.97%
MUSA	58 Neutral	$9.30B	19.50	60.22%	0.40%	-5.97%	-5.45%
ARKO	54 Neutral	$439.93M	29.43	5.54%	3.16%	-7.23%	-45.76%
AAP	45 Neutral	$2.09B	59.62	-23.45%	2.86%	-9.34%	-852.37%

Murphy USA Corporate Events

Murphy USA Highlights Strategic Initiatives at Investor Conference

On March 3, 2025, Murphy USA Inc. presented at the Raymond James 2025 Institutional Investors Conference, highlighting its strategic initiatives and financial performance. The company emphasized its transformational investments, which have enhanced its competitiveness and shareholder value. Murphy USA’s strategies include organic growth, merchandise diversification, and cost leadership, supported by a strong relationship with Walmart and a focus on digital transformation. The company has demonstrated resilience in volatile market conditions, maintaining market share and optimizing fuel pricing strategies, which have contributed to significant volume gains and enhanced customer loyalty.