Match Group (MTCH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.20B
• Dividend Yield: 0.66%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.89M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.44
• Revenue Growth: 3.41%
• EPS Growth: -10.41%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,500
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 76
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): 2.02
• Shares Outstanding: 250,429,140
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,508,494
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,893,345
• PEG Ratio: 0.53
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.19
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 7.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $36.64
• Price Target Upside: 31.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

Match Group's overall stock score reflects strong revenue performance and operational efficiency, tempered by concerns about financial stability due to negative equity and high leverage. While technical indicators show short-term bearish momentum, the valuation appears fair. The new CEO appointment and the company's strategic initiatives provide optimism, though challenges with Tinder and FX impacts persist.

Positive Factors

Leadership and Management

The appointment of Spencer Rascoff as the new CEO is viewed positively by investors due to his experience in scaling large platforms and integrating brands.

User Trends

Management cited solid 'peak season' dating trends exiting 4Q into 1Q, with Tinder monthly active user declines improving.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

The Q1:25 outlook for revenue and AOI missed the Street expectations, with management noting stable but still negative trends at Tinder.

Profitability Challenges

Q1:25 AOI guide implies a margin contraction, indicating potential profitability challenges.

Match Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Match Group, Inc. provides dating products worldwide. The company's portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Hinge, Pairs, PlentyOfFish, and OurTime, as well as a various other brands. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Match Group primarily generates revenue through subscription fees and in-app purchases across its suite of dating platforms. Tinder, being one of its most popular apps, offers Tinder Plus, Tinder Gold, and Tinder Platinum subscription tiers, providing users with premium features such as unlimited swipes, profile boosts, and more. Besides subscriptions, Match Group also earns from in-app purchases, which allow users to buy features like Super Likes and Boosts. The company occasionally collaborates with third-party advertisers for additional revenue, leveraging its extensive user base for targeted advertising opportunities. While subscriptions form the bulk of its revenue, strategic acquisitions and partnerships help in expanding its reach and enhancing its service offerings.

Match Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Match Group demonstrates strong revenue and profit margins, indicating operational efficiency and a growing revenue base. However, the negative equity and high leverage present risks to financial stability. Cash flow management appears adequate, though recent declines and missing data warrant caution. Overall, while the company shows strengths in revenue and profitability, its financial stability is an area of concern.

Income Statement

Match Group exhibits a stable income performance with a consistent gross profit margin around 70-72% over the years. While the net profit margin has decreased slightly from 2023 to 2024, it remains healthy. Revenue growth is evident, increasing from $2.39 billion in 2020 to $3.48 billion in 2024, signifying a positive revenue trajectory despite a decline from 2019. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, indicating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is concerning due to negative stockholders' equity, indicating potential financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, and the equity ratio is negative, highlighting high leverage. This poses a risk, although the company maintains substantial assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals inconsistent free cash flow growth. While operating cash flow remains positive, it has seen a decline in 2024. The company maintains a reasonable free cash flow to net income ratio, but the absence of recent free cash flow data limits analysis. Positive cash flow from operations suggests decent liquidity management.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.48B	3.36B	3.19B	2.98B	2.39B
	Gross Profit
2.49B	2.41B	2.23B	2.14B	1.76B
	EBIT
823.31M	916.90M	889.29M	386.64M	745.72M
	EBITDA
823.31M	1.05B	662.79M	921.64M	794.51M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
551.28M	651.54M	361.95M	277.72M	587.68M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
970.73M	868.64M	581.12M	827.20M	739.16M
	Total Assets
4.47B	4.51B	4.18B	5.06B	3.05B
	Total Debt
3.93B	3.96B	3.84B	3.93B	3.84B
	Net Debt
2.97B	3.09B	3.26B	3.11B	3.10B
	Total Liabilities
4.53B	4.53B	4.54B	5.26B	4.46B
	Stockholders Equity
-63.66M	-19.55M	-359.88M	-203.77M	-1.41B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
0.00	829.38M	476.56M	832.53M	759.81M
	Operating Cash Flow
0.00	896.79M	525.69M	912.50M	802.18M
	Investing Cash Flow
0.00	-76.58M	-71.70M	-939.83M	-4.89B
	Financing Cash Flow
0.00	-534.07M	-689.17M	111.11M	1.68B

Match Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 27.85
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTCH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.67, below the 50-day MA of 32.28, and below the 200-day MA of 33.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MTCH.

Match Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OPRA	78 Outperform	$2.47B	15.34	8.64%	5.59%	20.42%	-53.10%
WB	63 Neutral	$2.31B	7.56	8.74%	―	-0.29%	-12.84%
IQ	63 Neutral	$1.74B	15.69	6.01%	―	-9.84%	-61.26%
IAC	63 Neutral	$2.84B	―	-9.29%	―	-12.78%	-343.35%
MTCH	62 Neutral	$7.20B	14.22	-865.98%	0.66%	3.41%	-10.41%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$24.96B	3.11	-10.53%	4.28%	2.32%	-43.03%
JOYY	52 Neutral	$2.04B	―	-2.96%	―	-1.33%	-148.56%

Match Group Corporate Events

Match Group Appoints Darrell Cavens to Board

On April 6, 2025, Match Group announced the appointment of Darrell Cavens, an experienced e-commerce executive, to its Board of Directors as part of its ongoing board refreshment strategy. This move is intended to enhance the board’s expertise in digital commerce and technology-driven innovation, aligning with the company’s focus on driving shareholder value and innovation across its dating brands. Additionally, Match Group plans to seek stockholder approval to declassify its Board at the 2025 Annual Meeting, a move aimed at strengthening corporate governance. The company also advised stockholders to vote for its nominees and not support those proposed by Anson Funds, which holds less than 0.5% of Match Group’s common stock.

Spark’s Take on MTCH Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, MTCH is a Neutral.

Match Group’s overall stock score reflects strong revenue performance and operational efficiency, tempered by concerns about financial stability due to negative equity and high leverage. While technical indicators show short-term bearish momentum, the valuation appears fair. The new CEO appointment and the company’s strategic initiatives provide optimism, though challenges with Tinder and FX impacts persist.

To see Spark’s full report on MTCH stock, click here.

Match Group Appoints Hesam Hosseini as COO

On February 28, 2025, Match Group announced the appointment of Hesam Hosseini as Chief Operating Officer effective April 1, 2025, in addition to his role as CEO of Evergreen & Emerging Brands. The company also entered into an employment agreement with Hosseini, outlining his compensation and conditions for termination. Additionally, Gary Swidler, the company’s President, announced his resignation effective July 4, 2025, transitioning to an advisory role from April 1, 2025.

Match Group Appoints Spencer Rascoff as New CEO

On February 2, 2025, Match Group announced the appointment of Spencer Rascoff as the new Chief Executive Officer, effective February 4, 2025, succeeding Bernard Kim. Rascoff, a seasoned entrepreneur with a history of leading successful ventures like Zillow, will bring his extensive experience in technology and startups to Match Group. The announcement outlines Rascoff’s employment agreement, which includes a significant compensation package and performance-based incentives, indicating the company’s commitment to driving innovation and growth under his leadership.

Match Group Reports 2024 Results and Dividend Announcement

On February 4, 2025, Match Group announced a cash dividend of $0.19 per share, along with its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024. The company’s revenue grew by 3% year-over-year, driven by an 8% increase in revenue per payer, though payers declined by 5%. Despite a decline in operating income, Match Group focused on executing its Investor Day plan, prioritizing innovation to spur user growth and shareholder returns. The announcement highlighted the company’s disciplined financial management and outlook for 2025, with continued pressures from the strengthening U.S. dollar.