MP Materials (MP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.39B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 14.18M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.52
• Revenue Growth: 4.63%
• EPS Growth: -3189.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 804
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): -0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 163,456,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 14,933,950
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 14,179,085
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 253.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.29
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 438.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 98.52
• 1Y Price Target: $40.14
• Price Target Upside: -11.02% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $46.00 ▲(1.97%Upside)

MP Materials' overall score reflects the financial headwinds it faces, with declining revenues and profitability weighing heavily. Technical analysis suggests potential overvaluation, while strategic advancements and partnerships offer long-term growth potential.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

The agreement sets a floor price for NdPr at $110/kg for MP, which is almost 2x the current market price.

Market Position

The partnership is seen as a transformational deal that solidifies MP’s role as a national champion in the rare earths and magnet value chain.

Strategic Partnerships

MP Materials Corp has announced a major partnership with the US Department of Defense to expand its magnet manufacturing capacity and rare earth separation capabilities.

Negative Factors

Chinese Policy Risks

The risk to the thesis is that China's flex on rare earth restrictions will likely drive a broader and less nuanced policy stimulus for rare earth supply.

Market Supply Risks

If rare earths become oversupplied, or a recession hits, the capital markets will be less willing to discount scarcity value and longer-term growth aspirations.

MP Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MP Materials Corp. owns and operates rare earth mining and processing facilities. It owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth mine located in the Western Hemisphere. The company holds the mineral rights to the Mountain Pass mine and surrounding areas, as well as intellectual property rights related to the processing and development of rare earth minerals. It offers cerium, lanthanum, neodymium, praseodymium, and samarium. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

How the Company Makes Money

MP Materials generates revenue through the extraction, processing, and sale of rare earth materials. The primary revenue stream comes from selling rare earth oxide concentrates, which are essential components in the manufacturing of high-performance magnets. These magnets are crucial for various industries, including automotive, renewable energy, and electronics. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers who require a stable and reliable source of rare earth materials. Furthermore, MP Materials is actively working on vertically integrating its operations to further enhance profitability by controlling more stages of the supply chain, from mining to the production of rare earth magnets.

MP Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MP Materials faces financial headwinds with declining revenues and profitability. Despite a stable balance sheet with low leverage, negative cash flow trends highlight liquidity concerns.

Income Statement

MP Materials' TTM revenue has declined compared to previous years, with an evident drop in profitability marked by negative EBIT and net income margins. The company is facing challenges in maintaining its revenue growth and profitability, which is evident from the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating prudent leverage management. However, the return on equity has turned negative due to losses, impacting overall shareholder value. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting asset financing primarily through equity.

Cash Flow

MP Materials is experiencing negative operating and free cash flows, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has weakened, reflecting inefficiencies in converting earnings to cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	215.98M	203.85M	253.44M	527.51M	331.95M	134.31M
Gross Profit	4.83M	-66.79M	105.02M	416.94M	231.32M	31.91M
EBITDA	-34.87M	8.65M	94.95M	366.77M	195.86M	-25.27M
Net Income	-104.56M	-65.42M	24.31M	289.00M	135.04M	-21.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.37B	2.33B	2.34B	2.24B	1.89B	1.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	759.16M	850.87M	997.84M	1.18B	1.18B	519.65M
Total Debt	73.74M	914.53M	688.81M	678.44M	691.82M	70.82M
Total Liabilities	1.33B	1.28B	970.67M	925.15M	880.93M	220.41M
Stockholders Equity	1.04B	1.05B	1.37B	1.31B	1.01B	853.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-173.77M	-173.07M	-199.20M	16.92M	-21.90M	-19.09M
Operating Cash Flow	-8.72M	13.35M	62.70M	343.51M	101.97M	3.28M
Investing Cash Flow	-46.36M	10.06M	68.70M	-1.36B	-119.36M	-22.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-42.71M	-4.79M	-9.92M	-24.19M	666.11M	521.96M

MP Materials Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 45.11
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.61, above the 50-day MA of 27.43, and above the 200-day MA of 22.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.26 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MP.

MP Materials Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AA	73 Outperform	$8.05B	9.20	17.53%	1.29%	21.56%	―
CDE	69 Neutral	$5.83B	33.83	6.44%	―	41.79%	―
CMT	69 Neutral	$153.04M	12.76	8.01%	―	-15.07%	-36.06%
CE	59 Neutral	$6.83B	6.84	-26.94%	0.20%	-5.98%	-183.27%
Sector *	57 Neutral	£2.58B	5.06	-9.48%	4.35%	5.28%	-6.27%
ALB	55 Neutral	$8.74B	―	-10.58%	2.28%	-39.34%	-500.52%
MP	54 Neutral	$7.39B	―	-9.62%	―	4.63%	-3189.81%

MP Materials Corporate Events

MP Materials Partners with U.S. Defense for Supply Chain

On July 9, 2025, MP Materials announced a significant partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense to enhance the domestic rare earth magnet supply chain, reducing foreign dependency. This agreement includes a 10-year NdPr price floor commitment and a 10-year magnet offtake agreement, positioning MP Materials as a key player in the industry. The partnership involves constructing a new magnet manufacturing facility, expanding rare earth separation capabilities, and a multibillion-dollar investment from the Department of Defense, which will become the company’s largest shareholder. This strategic move aims to secure critical supply chains and strengthen industrial resilience, with implications for stakeholders in defense and commercial sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (MP) stock is a Hold with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MP Materials stock, see the MP Stock Forecast page.

MP Materials Elects Directors and Approves Executive Compensation

On June 10, 2025, MP Materials Corp. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where three Class II directors were elected to serve until 2028. The stockholders also approved the compensation for the company’s executive officers and ratified KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (MP) stock is a Buy with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MP Materials stock, see the MP Stock Forecast page.