MP Materials (MP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.89B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.67M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.00
• Revenue Growth: -19.57%
• EPS Growth: -392.96%
• Country: US
• Employees: 804
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): -0.58
• Shares Outstanding: 163,442,210
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,300,686
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,672,797
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 20.77
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 34.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 86.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $27.90
• Price Target Upside: 18.52% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

MP Materials presents a mixed outlook. Strengths include effective cost management, strong balance sheet, and promising production achievements. However, profitability and cash flow challenges, coupled with valuation issues, weigh down the overall score. Positive earnings call insights provide optimism for future growth, balancing current operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Geopolitical Influence

Geopolitical events, such as China's proposed regulations and the U.S. focus on rare earths, have primarily driven the share prices of rare earth companies, providing positive tailwinds for MP Materials Corp.

Government Support

MP was awarded a $35M contract through the U.S. Department of Defense to support the construction of a commercial scale processing facility for heavy rare earth elements at Mountain Pass.

Strategic Positioning

MP Materials, the largest producer of rare earths in the US, is advancing a vertically integrated mine-to-magnet strategy anchored by a large-scale U.S.-based mining operation.

Negative Factors

Market Demand

The projected NdFeB magnet output from MP's Fort Worth facility, for now, is less than 1% of global demand, which may limit MP’s near-term attempts to scale significantly.

Price Environment

The current low price environment limits near-term upside, despite positive long-term demand fundamentals.

Regulatory Challenges

Potential regulatory challenges may impact Mp Materials Corp's operations and profitability.

MP Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MP Materials Corp. is a leading producer of rare earth materials, primarily focused on the extraction, processing, and sale of rare earth concentrates. The company operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, one of the few sources of rare earth materials outside China. These materials are critical components in various high-tech applications, including electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other advanced technologies.

How the Company Makes Money

MP Materials makes money through the extraction and sale of rare earth concentrates. The company's primary revenue stream is derived from the sale of these concentrates to customers who use them to manufacture permanent magnets and other critical components for technology and industrial applications. MP Materials benefits from strategic partnerships and long-term supply agreements with key players in the technology and automotive sectors, ensuring a consistent demand for its products. Additionally, the company's vertically integrated operations, from mining to processing, help optimize cost efficiency and maximize profit margins.

MP Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MP Materials shows a mixed financial performance with effective cost management leading to strong gross profit margins. However, profitability challenges and negative cash flows highlight areas for improvement. The balance sheet remains robust with low leverage, but the company should focus on enhancing profitability and cash flow generation to support future growth.

Income Statement

MP Materials has experienced fluctuating revenue over the years with a notable decline in 2024 compared to 2023. The gross profit margin in 2024 was 100%, indicating effective cost management, but the net profit margin was negative due to a net loss driven by high expenses relative to revenue. The EBIT margin remained healthy at 59.1% in 2024, though EBITDA margin was relatively low at 8.6%, reflecting significant depreciation and amortization costs.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 45.2% in 2024, suggesting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.01, indicating minimal leverage. However, the return on equity was negatively impacted by the net loss, highlighting potential inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

MP Materials faced challenges in cash flow generation, with a significant decline in operating cash flow in 2024. The free cash flow was negative, impacted by substantial capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was negative, indicating cash flow issues relative to profitability.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
203.85M	253.44M	527.51M	331.95M	134.31M
	Gross Profit
-66.79M	105.02M	416.94M	231.32M	31.91M
	EBIT
-169.43M	22.28M	327.41M	165.34M	25.23M
	EBITDA
7.72M	94.95M	366.77M	195.86M	-25.27M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-65.42M	24.31M	289.00M	135.04M	-21.82M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
850.87M	997.84M	1.18B	1.18B	519.65M
	Total Assets
2.33B	2.34B	2.24B	1.89B	1.07B
	Total Debt
5.80M	688.81M	678.44M	691.82M	70.82M
	Net Debt
-276.64M	425.46M	541.82M	-487.48M	-448.84M
	Total Liabilities
1.28B	970.67M	925.15M	880.93M	220.41M
	Stockholders Equity
1.05B	1.37B	1.31B	1.01B	853.88M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-173.07M	-199.20M	16.92M	-21.90M	-19.09M
	Operating Cash Flow
13.35M	62.70M	343.51M	101.97M	3.28M
	Investing Cash Flow
10.06M	68.70M	-1.36B	-119.36M	-22.37M
	Financing Cash Flow
-4.79M	-9.92M	-24.19M	666.11M	521.96M

MP Materials Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 23.54
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.13, below the 50-day MA of 24.45, and above the 200-day MA of 18.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MP.

MP Materials Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CDE	70 Outperform	$3.57B	38.15	5.49%	―	27.30%	―
CMT	69 Neutral	$138.32M	9.77	9.29%	―	-15.48%	-35.32%
MP	61 Neutral	$3.89B	―	-5.41%	―	-19.57%	-392.96%
AA	60 Neutral	$6.69B	92.23	1.28%	1.68%	14.80%	96.53%
CE	50 Neutral	$4.20B	6.84	-24.69%	5.67%	-6.03%	-177.29%
ALB	48 Neutral	$7.11B	―	-12.18%	2.95%	-44.08%	-183.44%
Sector *	47 Neutral	$2.43B	-3.06	-22.76%	3.59%	4.02%	-29.07%

MP Materials Corporate Events

MP Materials Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer

On April 4, 2025, MP Materials Corp. appointed David G. Infuso as the Chief Accounting Officer and principal accounting officer, succeeding Ryan Corbett who remains the Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Infuso, who joined the company in November 2020, has extensive experience in accounting and finance, having previously worked at Penn Entertainment, Inc. and Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. His new role comes with an employment agreement that includes a base salary of $315,000, eligibility for a discretionary bonus, and various benefits in case of termination. The appointment and associated compensation package highlight MP Materials’ commitment to strengthening its financial leadership team.