El Pollo LoCo (LOCO) Risk Analysis

Our success depends in part upon our ability to attract, train, assimilate, and retain a sufficient number of employees, including crewmembers, managers and shift leaders, who understand and appreciate our culture, are able to represent our brand effectively and establish credibility with our customers. If we are unable to hire and retain restaurant employees capable of consistently providing a high level of customer service, understanding of our customers, and knowledge of our offerings, our ability to open new restaurants may be impaired, the performance of our existing and new restaurants could be adversely affected, and our brand image may be negatively impacted. Our growth strategy will require us to attract, train, and assimilate even more restaurant employees. Our ability to do so may be adversely affected by labor shortages.

Our profitability depends in part on our ability to anticipate and react to changes in the cost of food, supplies, labor, construction and utilities. In 2023, the costs of certain commodities, labor, and other inputs necessary to operate our restaurants have increased. In addition, we are susceptible to increases in food costs as a result of factors beyond our control, such as general economic conditions, seasonal economic fluctuations, weather conditions including wildfires and flooding, global demand, food shortages, food safety concerns, infectious diseases, fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, cyber-attacks, transportation issues, product recalls, and government regulations, including tariffs and other import restrictions on foreign produce and other goods. In 2022 and continuing into 2023, for example, we experienced inflationary pressures due to supply chain disruptions that adversely impacted and may continue to adversely impact our business and results of operations. Environmental and weather-related issues, which have been exacerbated by climate change, such as freezes, drought, wildfires, hurricanes and flooding, may also lead to increases, temporary or permanent, or spikes in the prices of some ingredients, such as produce and meat. Any increase in the prices of the ingredients most critical to our menu, in particular chicken, as well as corn, cheese, avocados, beans, rice, and tomatoes, could adversely compress our margins, or cause us to raise our prices, reducing customer demand. Alternatively, in the event of cost increases with respect to one or more of our raw ingredients, we might choose to temporarily suspend serving menu items, such as guacamole or one or more of our salsas, rather than pay the increased cost. Additionally, as a substantial volume of produce and other items are procured from Mexico, and occasionally other countries including Chile and Peru, any new or increased import duties, tariffs or taxes, or other changes in U.S. trade or tax policy could result in higher food and supply costs that would adversely impact our financial results. Any such changes to our menu prices or available menu could negatively impact our restaurant transactions, business, and comparable restaurant sales during the shortage and thereafter. Our principal food product is chicken. In fiscal 2023, 2022, and 2021, the cost of chicken included in our product cost was approximately 10.0%, 11.0%, and 9.9%, respectively, of our revenue from company-operated restaurants. Material increases in the cost of chicken could materially and adversely affect our business, operating results, and financial condition. Changes in the cost of chicken are impacted by a number of factors, including seasonality, increases in the cost of grain, disease, and other factors that affect domestic and international supply of and demand for chicken products. Additionally, environmental and animal rights regulations or voluntary programs have in the past led to increases, and could lead to future increases in, the cost or supply of chicken and other foods. We often ask our suppliers to use fixed price contracts or other financial risk management strategies to reduce potential price fluctuations in the cost of chicken and other commodities. We have implemented menu price increases in the past to significantly offset increased chicken prices, due to competitive pressures and compressed profit margins. We may not be able to offset all or any portion of increased food and supply costs, or labor, construction and utility costs through higher menu prices in the future. If we implement further menu price increases in the future to protect our margins, average check size and restaurant transactions could be materially and adversely affected, at both company-operated and franchised restaurants.

In order to build new restaurants, we must first identify markets where we can enter or expand our footprint, taking into account numerous factors, including the location of our current restaurants, local economic trends, population density, area demographics, cost of construction and real estate and geography. Then we must secure appropriate restaurant sites, which is one of our biggest challenges. There are numerous factors involved in identifying and securing an appropriate restaurant site, including: evaluating size of the site, traffic patterns, local retail, residential and business attractions and infrastructure that will drive high levels of customer traffic and sales; competition in new markets, including competition for restaurant sites; financial conditions affecting developers and potential landlords, such as the effects of macro-economic conditions and the credit market (including the potential for rising interest rates), which could lead to these parties delaying or canceling development projects (or renovations of existing projects), in turn reducing the number of appropriate restaurant sites available; developers and potential landlords obtaining licenses or permits for development projects on a timely basis; proximity of potential restaurant sites to existing restaurants; anticipated commercial, residential and infrastructure development near the potential restaurant site; and availability of acceptable lease terms and arrangements, including construction costs. In addition, competition for restaurant sites in our target markets can be intense, and development and leasing costs are increasing. Given the numerous factors involved, we may not be able to successfully identify and secure attractive restaurant sites in existing, adjacent or new markets, or we may fail to develop, profitably operate or meet our projections for new restaurants at such sites, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

We collect and retain internal and customer data, including personally identifiable information of our employees and customers. It is possible that measures we have taken to prevent the occurrence of security breaches may not be adequate and we may in the future become subject to claims or proceedings for purportedly fraudulent transactions arising out of the actual or alleged theft of credit/debit card information. Any such claims or proceedings could distract our management team members from running our business, adversely affect our reputation, and cause us to incur significant unplanned losses and expenses. We are also subject to federal and state laws regulating the collection and use of personal information of our employees and customers, including the California Consumer Privacy Act ("CCPA"), which took effect January 1, 2020, and the California Privacy Rights Act ("CPRA"), which was approved in November 2020, and beginning in January 2023 imposed additional data protection obligations on companies doing business in California. In addition, our ability to accept credit/debit cards as payment in our restaurants and online depends on us maintaining our compliance status with standards set by the PCI Security Standards Council, which require certain levels of system security and procedures to protect our customers' credit/debit card information as well as other personal information. Compliance with these standards and regulations may impose significant costs on us. Further, while we have implemented policies and procedures to ensure compliance with the CCPA, the manner in which the California Attorney General may interpret and enforce the CCPA is uncertain. The potential effects of the CCPA and CRPA are far-reaching and may require us to modify our data processing practices and policies and incur substantial costs and expenses in an effort to comply with these regulations. There is also the potential for increased regulatory enforcement by the state agencies empowered to enforce these laws. Noncompliance with the CCPA, CRPA and other privacy laws could result in injunctions, fines and/or proceedings against us by governmental agencies or others. There could also be uncertainty surrounding compliance with privacy laws in other jurisdictions such as state-specific laws, including those in Colorado, Utah, and others, which may conflict with existing legislation or future laws and regulations.

Further, certain government authorities have adopted or may adopt laws and regulations regarding trans-fats, sodium, sodas or other ingredients or products used or sold by our restaurants. While only a small number of our ingredients contain trans-fats in trace amounts, these regulations may require us to limit or remove ingredients from our products, which could affect product tastes, customer satisfaction levels, and sales volumes. Transitioning to higher-cost ingredients may also hinder our ability to operate in certain markets and proposed tax increases on certain products, such as sodas, may affect sales volumes of those products. In addition, a number of states, counties, and cities have enacted menu labeling laws requiring multi-unit restaurant operators to disclose certain nutritional information to customers. Furthermore, the Affordable Care Act requires chain restaurants to publish calorie information on their menus and menu boards. These and other requirements may increase our expenses, slow customers' ordering process, or negatively influence the demand for our offerings; all of which can have an adverse effect on our results of operations and financial position, as well as on the restaurant industry in general.

The restaurant industry is dependent upon consumer discretionary spending, which may be affected by general global economic conditions or other business conditions that may affect the desire or ability of our customers to purchase our products, including recessions or inflationary pressures, which have caused, and may continue to cause, increased labor, commodity and other restaurant operating costs. In addition, we may be affected by higher consumer debt and interest rates, adverse conditions in the mortgage housing markets, high unemployment levels, increases in gas prices, declines in median income growth, lower consumer confidence, lower consumer discretionary spending and uncertainties due to geopolitical turmoil and potential national or international security concerns. If the economy experiences a significant decline, our business, results of operations, our ability to access the capital markets and our ability to comply with the terms of our secured revolving credit facility could be materially and adversely affected, and we and our franchisees might decelerate the number and timing of new restaurant openings and/or the number of planned restaurant remodels. An actual or feared outbreak of disease, epidemic or pandemic, changes to regional or local economic conditions affecting consumer spending, or increased food or energy costs could also reduce consumer transactions or impose practical limits on pricing that could harm our business, financial condition, results of operations, and cash flow. In addition, political developments regarding U.S. relations with Mexico may harm our business. For example, increases in tariffs, restrictions on trade, or deterioration in American political or economic relations with Mexico could harm our brand and profitability. Changes in trade, labor, or immigration policy could raise our input prices, or reduce the supply of immigrants, who are in many cases our customers or employees, diminishing our sales and increasing our labor costs. In addition, factors that decrease consumer spending or increase security costs, such as social unrest, terrorist attacks or military action, may adversely affect our business. Additionally, changes in consumer health perceptions or trends in eating habits may also adversely affect our business if we are unable to effectively adapt our menu offerings. Our success is dependent upon continued customer acceptance of our Mexican-inspired food and customer health perceptions regarding our products. A decrease in American consumers' interest in Mexican-inspired food or chicken-based food, or changes in customer health perceptions of our food, could harm our brand and profitability. We cannot make any assurances regarding our ability to effectively respond to changes in consumer preferences or our ability to develop new products that appeal to consumer preferences.