Kirby (KEX) AI Stock Analysis

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Kirby

(NYSE:KEX)

65Neutral

Kirby's score reflects strong financial performance and optimistic future guidance from the earnings call. However, technical indicators are neutral, and the valuation suggests moderate pricing. Notable challenges include the lack of cash flow data for 2024 and declines in certain revenue segments.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow and Stock Repurchases

KEX management updated their operating cash flow and CAPEX guidance, highlighting significant free cash flow which could lead to substantial stock repurchases.

Demand and Utilization

Utilization is higher due to increased demand, reaching 95%.

Market Strength

Day rates are firming and heading in the right direction, indicating strength in the market.

Negative Factors

Market Recovery

The coastal market fundamentals continue to improve, with pricing for KEX's barges significantly higher from their 2020 bottom, indicating the early stages of a coastal recovery.

Operational Challenges

Coastal Marine faces significant headwinds in the first quarter due to additional shipyard dockings.

Kirby (KEX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$5.50B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)623.91K

Price to Earnings (P/E)19.7

Beta (1Y)1.24

Revenue Growth5.64%

EPS Growth31.91%

CountryUS

Employees5,414

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength70

IndustryMarine Shipping

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)4.91

Shares Outstanding56,897,000

10 Day Avg. Volume701,951

30 Day Avg. Volume623,911

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.62

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)1.77

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)5.90

P/FCF Ratio5.60

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$134.50

Price Target Upside39.22% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering4

Kirby Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKirby Corporation (KEX) is a leading provider of domestic tank barge transportation services, operating primarily in the United States. The company specializes in the transportation of bulk liquid products, including petrochemicals, black oil, refined petroleum products, and agricultural chemicals. Kirby also provides diesel engine services, offering engine overhaul and repair, sale of engine parts, and related services to marine, power generation, and industrial sectors.

How the Company Makes MoneyKirby Corporation generates revenue primarily through two main segments: Marine Transportation and Diesel Engine Services. The Marine Transportation segment is the largest contributor, where Kirby operates a fleet of inland and coastal tank barges and towing vessels, generating income by providing transportation services for a variety of liquid cargoes. The Diesel Engine Services segment earns revenue by providing overhaul and repair services for engines, sales of engine parts, and field services. Kirby's earnings are significantly influenced by the demand in the petrochemical and refining industries, changes in oil prices, and the overall economic climate affecting its key markets.

Kirby Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kirby has displayed strong revenue growth and improved profitability, with a notable increase in EBIT and EBITDA margins. The balance sheet is robust with no debt in 2024, but the zero total assets figure is concerning. Cash flow management showed strength but raises concerns due to the absence of data in 2024.

Income Statement

Positive

Kirby has shown consistent revenue growth from 2020 to 2024, with a notable increase in gross profit margin and net income in the latest year. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved significantly, indicating better operational efficiency. However, the company faced challenges in 2021 with negative EBIT and EBITDA, which could indicate past operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The debt-to-equity ratio is favorable, with the company having zero total debt in 2024, reflecting strong financial stability. The return on equity has improved due to increased net income, indicating effective utilization of equity. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting good financial health, but the total assets were recorded as zero in the latest year, which might be an error or requires further clarification.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Kirby has shown fluctuations in free cash flow growth, with a positive growth rate from 2021 to 2023 but no free cash flow reported in 2024, which might indicate reinvestment or other strategic financial moves. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was favorable in 2023, but the absence of operating cash flow data in 2024 raises concerns about liquidity management.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.27B	3.09B	2.78B	2.25B	2.17B
	Gross Profit
825.20M	700.06M	522.37M	379.98M	440.67M
	EBIT
399.10M	335.09M	-159.00K	-126.90M	-71.38M
	EBITDA
690.23M	546.04M	399.95M	-31.88M	-162.48M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
286.71M	222.94M	122.29M	-246.77M	-271.59M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
74.44M	32.58M	80.58M	34.81M	80.34M
	Total Assets
5.85B	5.72B	5.55B	5.40B	5.92B
	Total Debt
1.06B	1.19B	1.26B	1.36B	1.66B
	Net Debt
-74.44M	1.16B	1.18B	1.32B	1.58B
	Total Liabilities
2.50B	2.54B	2.51B	2.51B	2.84B
	Stockholders Equity
3.30B	3.19B	3.05B	2.89B	3.09B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
413.83M	138.50M	121.52M	223.56M	296.75M
	Operating Cash Flow
756.49M	540.23M	294.13M	321.58M	444.94M
	Investing Cash Flow
-400.13M	-413.15M	-139.60M	-55.79M	-485.85M
	Financing Cash Flow
-314.50M	-175.08M	-108.76M	-311.31M	96.51M

Kirby Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price96.61

Price Trends

50DMA

101.27

Negative

100DMA

107.69

Negative

200DMA

114.08

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.24

Negative

RSI

49.69

Neutral

STOCH

39.33

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KEX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 96.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 98.31, below the 50-day MA of 101.27, and below the 200-day MA of 114.08, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KEX.

Kirby Risk Analysis

Kirby disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kirby reported the most risks in the “Production” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Kirby Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DAC	79 Outperform	$1.29B	2.65	15.68%	4.79%	6.00%	-9.89%
ZIM	76 Outperform	$1.52B	0.71	66.17%	51.78%	63.25%	―
SBLK	72 Outperform	$1.54B	4.70	14.71%	15.03%	33.31%	62.94%
MATX	72 Outperform	$3.35B	7.32	18.86%	1.31%	10.57%	68.82%
GOGL	68 Neutral	$1.37B	6.14	11.68%	14.21%	9.33%	98.70%
KEX	65 Neutral	$5.50B	19.68	8.77%	―	5.64%	31.91%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$7.62B	13.01	3.19%	3.32%	3.77%	-14.28%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

KEX

Kirby

96.61

-0.53

-0.55%

DAC

Danaos

73.45

3.77

5.41%

SBLK

Star Bulk Carriers

14.24

-6.62

-31.74%

MATX

Matson

102.41

-6.29

-5.79%

GOGL

Golden Ocean Group

7.39

-4.40

-37.32%

ZIM

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services

13.79

7.18

108.62%

Kirby Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Jan 30, 2025 | % Change Since: -9.34% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed picture, with strong financial performance and growth in certain segments like power generation and coastal marine transportation. However, challenges included significant inventory write-downs, declines in oil and gas revenues, and seasonal as well as weather-related impacts on operations. Despite these challenges, the company remains optimistic about future growth and market conditions.

Highlights

Strong Year-over-Year Financial Performance

Adjusted earnings per share increased by 24% year-over-year, reflecting good execution despite seasonal challenges.

Significant Free Cash Flow Generation

Over $151 million of free cash flow was generated in the quarter, used to pay down $105 million in debt and repurchase $33 million of stock.

Inland Marine Term Contract Renewals

Term contract renewals in inland marine transportation saw high single-digit increases versus a year ago, with operating margins around 20%.

Coastal Market Performance

Coastal barge utilization was in the mid-to-high 90% range, with term contract renewals increasing in the mid to high 20% year-over-year.

Power Generation Growth

Power generation revenues grew 36% year-over-year, with the segment benefiting from strong demand and several large project wins.

Lowlights

Non-Cash Inventory Write-Down

A $56.3 million non-cash inventory impairment charge was recorded due to weak market conditions for conventional diesel fracturing equipment.

Oil and Gas Revenue Decline

Revenues in the oil and gas segment decreased by 38% year-over-year and 24% sequentially due to softness in conventional oil and gas business.

Seasonal Softness and Weather Impacts

The fourth quarter experienced seasonal softness and weather-related challenges, impacting marine transportation operations and margins.

Commercial and Industrial Revenue Decline

Commercial and industrial market revenues were down 7% year-over-year, driven by softness in on-highway truck service and repair.

Company Guidance

In the Kirby Corporation's 2024 Fourth Quarter Earnings Call, executives provided detailed guidance on various performance metrics and future expectations. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.29, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase. Free cash flow exceeded $151 million, enabling debt reduction by $105 million and $33 million in stock repurchases. Inland marine transportation maintained barge utilization rates in the 90% range, with operating margins around 20%. Coastal operations saw utilization in the mid-to-high 90% range, with term contract renewals increasing by 20-30% year-over-year. Distribution and services achieved a 36% year-over-year revenue growth in power generation, despite a 38% decline in oil and gas revenues. Overall, Kirby anticipates a strong 2025 with a projected 15-25% increase in earnings per share, driven by favorable market conditions and disciplined capital allocation.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.