John Marshall Bancorp (JMSB) Risk Factors

From time to time, FASB or the SEC may change the financial accounting and reporting standards that govern the preparation of our financial statements. Such changes may result in us being subject to new or changing accounting and reporting standards. In addition, the bodies that interpret the accounting standards (such as banking regulators or outside auditors) may change their interpretations or positions on how these standards should be applied. These changes may be beyond our control, can be hard to predict and can materially impact how we record and report our financial condition and results of operations. In some cases, we could be required to apply a new or revised standard retrospectively, or apply an existing standard differently, also retrospectively, in each case resulting in our needing to revise or restate prior period financial statements.

Our internal control over financial reporting is designed to provide reasonable assurance regarding the reliability of the financial reporting and the preparation of financial statements for external purposes in accordance with GAAP. Effective internal control over financial reporting is necessary for us to provide reliable reports and prevent fraud. We may not be able to identify all significant deficiencies and/or material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting in the future, and our failure to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. In the normal course of our operations, we may identify deficiencies that would have to be remediated to satisfy the SEC rules for certification of our internal control over financial reporting. A material weakness is defined by the standards issued by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, as a deficiency, or combination of deficiencies, in internal control over financial reporting that results in a reasonable possibility that a material misstatement of our annual or interim financial statements will not be prevented or detected on a timely basis. As a consequence, we would have to disclose in periodic reports we file with the SEC any material weakness in our internal control over financial reporting. The existence of a material weakness would preclude management from concluding that our internal control over financial reporting is effective and, when we cease to be an emerging growth company under the JOBS Act, preclude our independent registered public accounting firm from rendering their report addressing an assessment of the effectiveness of our internal control over financial reporting. In addition, disclosures of deficiencies of this type in our SEC reports could cause investors to lose confidence in our financial reporting, and may negatively affect the market price of our common stock, and could result in the delisting of our securities from the securities exchanges on which they trade. Moreover, effective internal controls are necessary to produce reliable financial reports and to prevent fraud. If we have deficiencies in our disclosure controls and procedures or internal control over financial reporting, such deficiencies may adversely affect us.

In considering whether to make a loan secured by real property, we generally require an appraisal of the property. However, an appraisal is only an estimate of the value of the property at the time the appraisal is made, and, as real estate values may change significantly in value in relatively short periods of time (especially in periods of heightened economic uncertainty), this estimate may not accurately reflect the net value of the collateral after the loan is made. As a result, we may not be able to realize the full amount of any remaining indebtedness when we foreclose on and sell the relevant property. In addition, we rely on appraisals and other valuation techniques to establish the value of OREO that we acquire through foreclosure proceedings and to determine loan impairments. If any of these valuations are inaccurate, our consolidated financial statements may not reflect the correct value of our OREO, if any, and our allowance for loan credit losses may not reflect accurate loan impairments. Inaccurate valuation of OREO or inaccurate provisioning for loan credit losses could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. The Company did not have any OREO as of December 31, 2023.

As a result of our organic growth over the past several years, as of December 31, 2023, approximately $1.11 billion, or 59.7%, of the loans in our loan portfolio were first originated during the past three years. The average age by loan type for loans originated in the past three years is: commercial real estate loans-1.81 years; commercial and industrial loans-1.24 years; commercial construction loans-1.19 years; and consumer residential loans-1.50 years. In general, loans do not begin to show signs of credit deterioration or default until they have been outstanding for some period of time, a process referred to as "seasoning." As a result, a portfolio of older loans will usually behave more predictably than a newer portfolio. Therefore, the recent and current level of delinquencies and defaults may not represent the level that may prevail as the portfolio becomes more seasoned and may not serve as a reliable basis for predicting the health and nature of our loan portfolio, including net charge-offs and the ratio of nonperforming assets in the future. Our limited experience with these loans may not provide us with a significant history with which to judge future collectability or performance. However, we believe that our stringent credit underwriting process, our ongoing credit review processes, and our history of successful management of our loan portfolio, mitigate these risks. Nevertheless, if delinquencies and defaults increase, we may be required to increase our provision for loan credit losses, which could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Our 10 largest borrowing relationships accounted for approximately 9.1% of our loans at December 31, 2023. Our largest single borrowing relationship accounted for approximately 1.4% of our loans at December 31, 2023. The loss of any combination of these borrowers, or a significant decline in their borrowings due to fluctuations related to their business needs, could adversely affect our results of operations if we are unable to replace their borrowings with similarly priced new loans or investments. In addition, with this concentration of credit risk among a limited number of borrowers, we may face a greater risk of material credits losses if any one or several of these borrowers fail to perform in accordance with their loans, compared to a bank with a more diversified loan portfolio.

Since we originate loans secured by real estate, we may have to foreclose on the collateral property to protect our investment and may thereafter own and operate such property, in which case we would be exposed to the risks inherent in the ownership of real estate. The amount that we, as a mortgagee, may realize after a foreclosure depends on factors outside of our control, including, but not limited to, general or local economic conditions, environmental cleanup liabilities, assessments, interest rates, real estate tax rates, operating expenses of the mortgaged properties, our ability to obtain and maintain adequate occupancy of the properties, zoning laws, governmental and regulatory rules, and natural disasters. Our inability to manage the amount of costs or size of the risks associated with the ownership of real estate, or write-downs in the value of other real estate owned ("OREO") could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. The Company did not have any OREO as of December 31, 2023. Additionally, consumer protection initiatives or changes in state or federal law may substantially increase the time and expenses associated with the foreclosure process or prevent us from foreclosing at all. A number of states in recent years have either considered or adopted foreclosure reform laws that make it substantially more difficult and expensive for lenders to foreclose on properties in default. Additionally, federal and state regulators have prosecuted or pursued enforcement action against a number of mortgage servicing companies for alleged consumer law violations. If new federal or state laws or regulations are ultimately enacted that significantly raise the cost of foreclosure or raise outright barriers to foreclosure, they could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Commercial real estate, commercial and industrial and construction and development based lending usually involve higher credit risks than 1-4 family residential real estate lending. While we observed a decrease in exposure year-over-year, as of December 31, 2023, the following loan types accounted for the stated percentages of our loan portfolio: commercial real estate (both owner-occupied and non-owner occupied) -  56.6%; commercial and industrial -  2.4%; and construction and land -  9.7%. These types of loans also involve larger loan balances to a single borrower or groups of related borrowers. These higher credit risks are further heightened when the loans are concentrated in a small number of larger borrowers leading to relationship exposure. As of December 31, 2023, we had 27 relationships with over $10 million of outstanding borrowings with us. While we are not dependent on any of these relationships and while none of these large relationships have directly impacted our allowance for loan credit losses, a deterioration of any of these large credits could require us to increase our allowance for loan credit losses or result in significant losses to us. Non-owner occupied commercial real estate loans may be affected to a greater extent than residential loans by adverse conditions in real estate markets or the economy because commercial real estate borrowers' ability to repay their loans depends on successful development of their properties, in addition to the factors affecting residential real estate borrowers. These loans also involve greater risk because they generally are not fully amortizing over the loan period, but have a balloon payment due at maturity. A borrower's ability to make a balloon payment typically will depend on being able to either refinance the loan or sell the underlying property in a timely manner. Commercial and industrial loans and owner-occupied commercial real estate loans are typically based on the borrowers' ability to repay the loans from the cash flow of their businesses. These loans may involve greater risk because the availability of funds to repay each loan depends substantially on the success of the business itself. In addition, the assets securing the loans have the following characteristics: (i) they depreciate over time, (ii) they are difficult to appraise and liquidate, and (iii) they fluctuate in value based on the success of the business. Real estate construction and development loan lending involves additional risks because funds are advanced based on the security of the project, which is of uncertain value prior to its completion, and costs may exceed realizable values in declining real estate markets. Because of the uncertainties inherent in estimating construction costs and the realizable market value of the completed project and the effects of governmental regulation of real property, it is relatively difficult to evaluate accurately the total funds required to complete a project and the related loan-to-value ratio. As a result, construction loans often involve the disbursement of substantial funds with repayment dependent, in part, on the success of the ultimate project and the ability of the borrower to sell or lease the property, rather than the ability of the borrower or guarantor to repay principal and interest. If our appraisal of the value of the completed project proves to be overstated or market values or rental rates decline, we may have inadequate security for the repayment of the loan upon completion of construction of the project. If we are forced to foreclose on a project prior to or at completion due to a default, we may not be able to recover all of the unpaid balance of, and accrued interest on, the loan as well as related foreclosure and holding costs. In addition, we may be required to fund additional amounts to complete the project and may have to hold the property for an unspecified period of time while we attempt to dispose of it. Additionally, commercial real estate loans, commercial and industrial loans and construction and development loans are more susceptible to a risk of loss during a downturn in the business cycle. Some degree of instability in the commercial real estate markets is expected in the coming quarters as loans are refinanced in markets with higher vacancy rates under current economic conditions. The outlook for commercial real estate remains dependent on the broader economic environment and, specifically, how major subsectors respond to a higher interest rate environment and higher prices for commodities, goods and services. Our underwriting, review and monitoring cannot eliminate all of the risks related to these loans.

We make loans primarily to borrowers in the Washington, D.C. MSA, focusing on the Virginia counties of Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William and the independent cities located within those counties, and Washington D.C. and its Maryland suburbs, and have a substantial portion of our loans secured by real estate. These concentrations expose us to the risk that adverse developments in the real estate market, or in the general economic conditions in such areas, or the continuation of such adverse developments, could increase the levels of nonperforming loans and charge-offs, and reduce loan demand and deposit growth. In that event, we could experience lower earnings or losses. Additionally, if economic conditions in the area deteriorate, or there is significant volatility or weakness in the economy or any significant sector of the area's economy, our ability to develop our business relationships may be diminished, the quality and collectability of our loans may be adversely affected, our provision for loan credit losses may increase, the value of collateral may decline and loan demand may be reduced.

We target our business development and marketing strategy primarily to serve the banking and financial services needs of small to medium-sized businesses. These businesses generally have fewer financial resources in terms of capital or borrowing capacity than larger entities, frequently have smaller market shares than their competition, may be more vulnerable to economic downturns, often need substantial additional capital to expand or compete, and may experience substantial volatility in operating results, any of which may impair their ability as a borrower to repay a loan. If general economic conditions in the markets in which we operate negatively impact this customer segment, our results of operations and financial condition and the value of our common stock may be adversely affected. Moreover, a portion of these loans have been made by us in recent years and the borrowers may not have experienced a complete business or economic cycle. The deterioration of our borrowers' businesses may hinder their ability to repay their loans with us, which could have an adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Our business depends on our ability to successfully measure and manage credit risk. As a lender, we are exposed to the risk that the principal of, or interest on, a loan will not be paid timely or at all or that the value of any collateral supporting a loan will be insufficient to cover our outstanding exposure. In addition, we are exposed to risks with respect to the period of time over which the loan may be repaid, risks relating to proper loan underwriting, risks resulting from changes in economic and industry conditions, and risks inherent in dealing with individual loans and borrowers. The creditworthiness of a borrower is affected by many factors, including local market conditions and general economic conditions. Many of our loans are made to small to medium-sized businesses that are less able to withstand competitive, economic and financial pressures than larger borrowers. If the overall economic climate in the United States, generally, or in our market specifically, experiences material disruption, our borrowers may experience difficulties in repaying their loans, the collateral we hold may decrease in value or become illiquid, and the level of nonperforming loans, charge-offs and delinquencies could rise and require significant additional provisions for loan credit losses. Additional factors related to the credit quality of multifamily residential, real estate construction and other commercial real estate loans include the quality of management of the business and tenant vacancy rates. Our risk management practices, such as monitoring the concentration of our loans within specific markets and our credit approval, review and administrative practices, may not adequately reduce credit risk, and our credit administration personnel, policies and procedures may not adequately adapt to changes in economic or any other conditions affecting customers and the quality of the loan portfolio. A failure to effectively measure and limit the credit risk associated with our loan portfolio may result in loan defaults, foreclosures and additional charge-offs, and may necessitate that we significantly increase our allowance for loan credit losses, each of which could adversely affect our net income. As a result, our inability to successfully manage credit risk could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Federal regulations establish minimum capital requirements for insured depository institutions, including minimum risk-based capital and leverage ratios, and defines "capital" for calculating these ratios. The Federal Reserve requires a bank holding company to act as a source of financial and managerial strength to its subsidiary banks and to commit resources to support its subsidiary banks. Under the "source of strength" doctrine that was codified by the Dodd-Frank Act, the Federal Reserve may require a bank holding company to make capital injections into a subsidiary bank at times when the bank holding company may not be inclined to do so and may charge the bank holding company with engaging in unsafe and unsound practices for failure to commit resources to such a subsidiary bank. Accordingly, we could be required to provide financial assistance to the Bank if it experiences financial distress. A capital injection may be required at a time when our resources are limited, and we may be required to borrow the funds or raise capital to make the required capital injection. Any new or revised standards adopted in the future may require us to maintain materially more capital, with common equity as a more predominant component, or manage the configuration of our assets and liabilities to comply with formulaic capital requirements. We may not be able to raise additional capital at all, or on terms acceptable to us. Failure to maintain capital to meet current or future regulatory requirements could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

The majority of our banking assets are monetary in nature and subject to risk from changes in interest rates. Like most financial institutions, our earnings are significantly dependent on our net interest income, the principal component of our earnings, which is the difference between interest earned by us from our interest-earning assets, such as loans and investment securities, and interest paid by us on our interest-bearing liabilities, such as deposits and borrowings. We expect that we will periodically experience "gaps" in the interest rate sensitivities of our assets and liabilities, meaning that either our interest-bearing liabilities will be more sensitive to changes in market interest rates than our interest-earning assets, or vice versa. In either event, if market interest rates should move contrary to our position, this "gap" will negatively impact our earnings. Many factors impact interest rates, including governmental monetary policies, inflation, recession, changes in unemployment, the money supply, and international disorder and instability in domestic and foreign financial markets. Interest rate increases often result in larger payment requirements for our borrowers, which increase the potential for default. At the same time, the marketability of the property securing a loan may be adversely affected by any reduced demand resulting from higher interest rates. In a declining interest rate environment, there may be an increase in prepayments on loans as borrowers refinance their loans at lower rates. Changes in interest rates also can affect the value of loans, securities and other assets. An increase in interest rates that adversely affects the ability of borrowers to pay the principal or interest on loans may lead to an increase in nonperforming assets and a reduction of income recognized, which could have an adverse effect on our results of operations and cash flows. If short-term interest rates remain elevated relative to longer-term interest rates, we could experience net interest margin compression as the rate of increase in the cost of our interest-bearing liabilities could outpace the rate in which we are able to re-price our interest-earning assets. Such an occurrence would have an adverse effect on our net interest income and results of operations. Although we believe that we have implemented effective asset and liability management strategies to mitigate the potential adverse effects of changes in interest rates on our results of operations, any substantial or unexpected change in, or prolonged change in market interest rates could have an adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

As market interest rates have increased, we have experienced significant unrealized losses on our available for sale securities portfolio. Unrealized losses related to available for sale securities are reflected in accumulated other comprehensive income in our consolidated balance sheets and reduce the level of our book capital and tangible common equity. However, such unrealized losses do not affect our regulatory capital ratios. We actively monitor our available for sale securities portfolio and we do not currently anticipate the need to sell securities for liquidity purposes. Furthermore, we believe it is unlikely that we would be required to sell any such securities before recovery of their amortized cost bases, which may be at maturity. Nonetheless, our access to liquidity sources could be affected by unrealized losses if securities must be sold at a loss; tangible capital ratios continue to decline from an increase in unrealized losses or realized credit losses; the FHLB or other funding sources reduce capacity; or bank regulators impose restrictions on us that impact the level of interest rates we may pay on deposits or our ability to access brokered deposits. Additionally, significant unrealized losses could negatively impact market and/or customer perceptions of our company, which could lead to a loss of depositor confidence and an increase in deposit withdrawals, particularly among those with uninsured deposits.

In the wake of the 2023 regional bank failures, which the FDIC concluded were generated by, in significant part, a high volume of uninsured deposits, many large depositors withdrew deposits in excess of applicable deposit insurance limits and deposited these funds in other financial institutions. In many instances, depositors moved these funds into money market mutual funds or other similar securities accounts in an effort to diversify the risk of further bank failure(s). Uninsured deposits historically have been viewed by the FDIC as less stable than insured deposits. An interagency policy statement issued in July 2023 noted that banks should maintain actionable contingency funding plans that take into account a range of possible stress scenarios, assess the stability of their funding and maintain a broad range of funding sources, ensure that collateral is available for borrowing, and review and revise contingency funding plans periodically and more frequently as market conditions and strategic initiatives change. Deposits that were not insured or not collateralized by securities represented 33.0% of total deposits as of December 31, 2023. If a significant portion of our deposits were to be withdrawn within a short period of time such that additional sources of funding would be required to meet withdrawal demands, we may be unable to obtain funding at favorable terms, which may have an adverse effect on our net interest margin. Moreover, obtaining adequate funding to meet our deposit obligations may be more challenging during periods of elevated prevailing interest rates, such as the present period. Our ability to attract depositors during a time of actual or perceived distress or instability in the marketplace may be limited. Further, interest rates paid for borrowings generally exceed the interest rates paid on deposits. This spread may be exacerbated by higher prevailing interest rates. In addition, because our available-for-sale investment securities lose value when interest rates rise, after-tax proceeds resulting from the sale of such assets may be diminished during periods when interest rates are elevated. Under such circumstances, we may be required to access funding from sources such as the Federal Reserve's discount window in order to manage our liquidity risk.

A "brokered deposit" is any deposit that is obtained from, or through the mediation or assistance of, a deposit broker. These deposit brokers attract deposits from individuals and companies throughout the country and internationally whose deposit decisions are based almost exclusively on obtaining the highest interest rates. Legislation excludes reciprocal deposits of up to the lesser of $5 billion or 20.0% of an institution's deposits from the definition of brokered deposits, where the institution is well capitalized and has a composite supervisory rating of 1 or 2. We have used brokered deposits in the past, and we may continue to use brokered deposits as one of our funding sources to support future growth. As of December 31, 2023, brokered deposits represented approximately 17.0% of our total deposits. Reciprocal deposits represented an additional 14.7% of total deposits at December 31, 2023. There are risks associated with using brokered deposits. In order to continue to maintain our level of brokered deposits, we may be forced to pay higher interest rates than those contemplated by our asset-liability pricing strategy which could have an adverse effect on our net interest margin. In addition, banks that become less than "well capitalized" under applicable regulatory capital requirements may be restricted in their ability to accept or renew, or prohibited from accepting or renewing, brokered deposits. If this funding source becomes more difficult to access, we will have to seek alternative funding sources in order to continue to fund our growth. This may include increasing our reliance on Federal Home Loan Bank of Atlanta ("FHLB") borrowing, attempting to attract additional non-brokered deposits, and selling loans. There can be no assurance that brokered deposits will be available, or if available, sufficient to support our continued growth. The unavailability of a sufficient volume of brokered deposits could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Our risk management framework is comprised of various processes, systems and strategies, and is designed to manage the types of risk to which we are subject, including, among others, credit, market, liquidity, interest rate and compliance. Our framework also includes financial or other modeling methodologies that involve management assumptions and judgment. Our risk management framework may not be effective under all circumstances. Our risk management framework may not adequately mitigate any risk or loss to us. If our risk management framework is not effective, we could suffer unexpected losses and our business, financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected. We may also be subject to potentially adverse regulatory consequences.