Itau Unibanco (ITUB) Risk Analysis

Insurance companies are subject to SUSEP intervention and/or liquidation. In case of insufficient resources, technical reserves, or poor economic health with respect to a regulated entity, SUSEP may appoint an inspector to act within the relevant company. If such intervention does not remedy the issue, SUSEP will forward to CNSP a proposal to withdraw the applicable insurance license. In addition, insurance companies are subject to pecuniary penalties, warnings, suspension of authorization of activities and disqualification to engage in business activities as set in Law. Health insurance companies are subject to ANS regulations. With respect to companies that are deemed to have financial imbalances or serious economic, financial or administrative irregularities, ANS may order the disposal of the applicable health insurance company’s portfolio, or take other measures, such as fiscal or technical direction regime for a period not exceeding 365 days, or extrajudicial liquidation. The penalties established for violations committed by health insurance companies and their directors and officers are: (i) warnings; (ii) pecuniary penalties; (iii) suspension of company’s activities; (iv) temporary disqualification for the exercise of management positions in health insurance companies; (v) permanent disqualification for the exercise of management positions in health insurance companies as well as in open private pension funds, insurance companies, insurance brokers and financial institutions; and (vi) the cancellation of the company’s authorization to operate and sale of its portfolio. Accordingly, our insurance operations may be affected negatively by any penalties applied by SUSEP or ANS, as described above.

As part of the ordinary course of our business, we are subject to, and party to various civil, tax and labor lawsuits, which involve financial risks. Our audited consolidated financial statements only include reserves for probable losses that can be reasonably estimated and eventual expenses that we incur in connection with litigation or administrative proceedings, or as otherwise required by Brazilian law. It is currently not possible to estimate the amount of all potential costs that we may incur or penalties that may be imposed on us other than those amounts for which we have reserves. In the event of unfavorable court decisions involving material amounts for which we have no or partial provisions, or in the event that the losses estimated turn out to be significantly higher than the provisions made, the aggregate cost of unfavorable decisions, may adversely affect our results and financial condition.

The Brazilian government regularly amends tax laws and regulations, including by creating new taxes, which can be temporary, and changing tax rates, the basis on which taxes are assessed or the way taxes are calculated, including in respect of tax rates applicable solely to the banking industry. Currently, the Brazilian Congress is discussing a broad tax reform and there is no clarity as to when such reform may ultimately be enacted. If adopted, any such tax reform may affect our business by increasing our costs, limiting our profitability or having other impacts.

We manage and hold confidential personal information of clients in the ordinary course of our business. Although we have procedures and controls to safeguard personal information in our possession, unauthorized disclosures or security breaches could subject us to legal action and administrative sanctions as well as damage that could materially and adversely affect our operating results, financial condition and prospects. Further, our business is exposed to risk from potential non-compliance with policies, employee misconduct or negligence and fraud, which could result in regulatory sanctions and reputational or financial harm. In addition, we may be required to report events related to cybersecurity issues, events where client information may be compromised, unauthorized access and other security breaches, to the relevant regulatory authority. Any material disruption or slowdown of our systems could cause information, including data related to client requests, to be lost or to be delivered to our clients with delays or errors, which could reduce demand for our services and products and could materially and adversely affect us.

Our operations are dependent upon the performance of the economies of the countries in which we do business, and Latin American countries in particular. Crises and volatility in the financial markets of countries other than Brazil may affect the global financial markets and the Brazilian economy and may have a negative impact on our operations. The demand for credit and financial services, as well as our clients’ ability to repay, is directly impacted by macroeconomic variables, such as economic growth, income, unemployment rate, inflation, and fluctuations in interest and foreign exchange rates. Disruptions and volatility in the global financial markets may have significant consequences in the countries in which we operate, such as volatility in the prices of securities, interest rates and foreign exchange rates. Higher uncertainty and volatility may result in a slowdown in the credit market and the economy, which, in turn, could lead to higher unemployment rates and a reduction in the purchasing power of consumers. In addition, such events may significantly impair our clients’ ability to perform their obligations and increase overdue or non-performing loans, resulting in an increase in the risk associated with our lending activity. The economic and market conditions of other countries, including the United States, countries of the European Union, and emerging markets, may affect the credit availability and the volume of foreign investments in Brazil and in the countries in which we do business, to varying degrees. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a concern for the global economy, despite the decrease of infection rates in most developed countries and vaccines being distributed worldwide. The number of COVID-19 cases are falling across countries as winter (in the northern hemisphere) and holiday outbreaks dissipate. In the U.S., cases, hospitalizations and deaths are falling in nearly all states, allowing some easing of restrictions. In Europe, recent surges in the virus have been curbed, but some countries are taking new restrictive measures to avoid new waves. Vaccination campaigns are accelerating in several countries and the global vaccine supply is expected to keep increasing in the second and third quarters of 2021. In our view, the worldwide distribution of vaccines in 2021 is the most important initiative for a full recovery of the global economy. A new surge of infections arising, for example from new strains of the virus and any event that might hinder governments further controlling the spread of COVID-19, such as delays in the distribution of vaccines or inefficient vaccines themselves may lead to governments having to maintain restrictions on mobility to try to contain the further spread of the disease, thus leading to a suppression of economic activity. Although these risks have decreased mostly for developed markets, their materialization would affect global growth and may decrease investors’ interest in assets from Brazil and other countries in which we do business, which would adversely affect the market price of our securities, possibly making it more difficult for us to access capital markets and, as a result, to finance our operations in the future. The rise in global interest rates reflects the economic recovery outlook and is less of a concern in the near term, as we expect the Fed to maintain its ample accommodative stance in 2021 and gradually withdraw stimulus in 2022. A faster withdrawal of monetary stimulus in developed economies can affect emerging economies and thus affect our operations.

Operational risks, which may arise from errors in the performance of our processes, the conduct of our employees, instability, malfunction or outage of our IT system and infrastructure, or loss of business continuity, or comparable issues with respect to our vendors, may disrupt our businesses and lead to material losses. We face operational risk arising from errors, accidental or premeditated, made in the execution, confirmation or settlement of transactions or from transactions not being properly recorded, evaluated or accounted for. The occurrence of any of these risks may adversely affect our business, financial results and reputations.

The COVID-19 pandemic and governmental responses thereto have had, and may continue to have, a severe impact on global and Brazilian macro-economic and financial conditions, including the disruption of supply chains and the closures or interruptions of many businesses, leading to losses of revenues, increased unemployment and economic stagnation and contraction. The COVID-19 pandemic has also resulted in materially increased volatility in both Brazilian and international financial markets and economic indicators, including exchange rates, interest rates and credit spreads. For example, as a result of heightened volatility, the B3 Exchange’s circuit breaker was triggered eight times in the month of March 2020 and the value of assets was negatively impacted. Any shocks or unexpected movements in these market factors could result in financial losses associated with our trading portfolio or financial assets, which could deteriorate our financial condition. Furthermore, market concerns could translate into liquidity constraints and reduced access to funding in both the local and the international markets, negatively affecting our business. Measures taken by governmental authorities worldwide, including Brazil, to stabilize markets and support economic growth may not be sufficient to control high volatility or to prevent serious and prolonged reductions in economic activity. In addition, the social distancing measures imposed by governmental authorities to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a sharp drop or even a halt in the activities of companies in various sectors that we transact with and otherwise serve. While many of these restrictions have since been lifted, there is no way to predict whether new patterns of contagion, increasing disease severity or other factors related to the pandemic, including access to, or the efficiency of, a vaccine, may result in a renewed tightening of these policies or the imposition of new and different restrictions. These policies and measures have influenced the behavior of the consumer market and the population in general, the demand for services, products and credit. In addition, there can be no assurance that the restrictive measures imposed by certain Brazilian states and municipalities will not worsen if Brazil faces new waves of COVID-19. For example, at the beginning of 2021, a novel strain of COVID-19 started circulating in Brazil, causing an increase in the number of deaths and hospitalizations. On March 11, 2021, Brazil was considered the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of number of confirmed cases and deaths. In March 2021, Brazil registered 321,515 deaths from COVID-19. As a result, public authorities in Brazil reinstated more severe restrictive measures, including social distancing, quarantine and lockdowns. Moreover, there can be no assurance that there will be no delays in COVID-19 vaccinations in Brazil, including as a result of supply shortages and delays on Brazilian regulatory approval of certain vaccines. The weakened macroeconomic fundamentals coupled with the market downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic had, and may in the future have, a negative impact on our performance across all our business units. Impacts on our business could be widespread, and material impacts may be possible, including but not limited to the following: • Employees contracting COVID-19; • Reductions in our operating effectiveness as our employees work from home or disaster-recovery locations; • Unavailability of key personnel necessary to conduct our business activities, including a lack of qualified IT personnel to support remote working or combat any cyber risks; • Unprecedented volatility in global financial markets and exchange markets; • Reductions in revenue across our operating businesses and increased customer defaults; • Closure of our offices or the offices of our clients; and • Potential regulatory scrutiny of our ability to adequately supervise our activities in accordance with applicable regulatory requirements. The extent of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business, financial condition, liquidity and results will depend on future developments, which are highly uncertain, unpredictable and which depend on several factors that are beyond our control, including the possibility of additional outbreaks, further mutations of the virus and the intensity of the economic downturn resulting from actions taken, or to be taken, by government authorities and the scientific community in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, including in relation to the availability and efficiency of vaccines and other treatments. Consumers affected by the COVID-19 pandemic may continue to show retraction behaviors, even after the end of the crisis, maintaining low levels of discretionary spending in the long term, which is why certain sectors we serve may take longer to recover (particularly sectors such as hotels, civil aviation, shopping centers and wholesale retailers). To the extent the COVID-19 pandemic adversely affects our business, results of operations and financial condition, it would also have the effect of heightening many of the other risks described in this “Risk Factors” section of this Form 20-F, such as those relating to interest rate changes, economic, social and political developments in Brazil, the market volatility generated by distortions in the international financial markets, cybersecurity, etc. Please see “Item 5A. Operating Results — Macroeconomic Context – Brazilian Context” for further details about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business. Please also see “Note 33 – Supplementary Information” to our audited consolidated financial statements.

The investment in securities traded in emerging markets frequently involves a risk higher than an investment in securities of issuers from the U.S. or other developed countries, and these investments are generally considered more speculative. The Brazilian securities market is smaller, less liquid, more concentrated and can be more volatile than markets in the U.S. and other countries. Thus, an investor’s ability to sell preferred shares underlying ADSs at the price and time the investor desires may be substantially limited.

Our ability to maintain our competitive position and implement our strategy depends on our senior management. The loss of some of the members of our senior management, or our inability to maintain and attract additional personnel, could have a material adverse effect on our operations and our ability to implement our strategy. Our performance and success are largely dependent on the talents and efforts of highly skilled individuals. Talent attraction and retention is one of the key pillars for supporting the results of our organization, which is focused on client satisfaction and sustainable performance. Our ability to attract, develop, motivate and retain the right number of appropriately qualified people is critical to our performance and ability to thrive globally. Concurrently, we face the challenge to provide a new experience to employees, so that we are able to attract and retain highly-qualified professionals who value environments offering equal opportunities and who wish to build up their careers in dynamic, cooperative workplaces, which encourage diversity and meritocracy and are up to date with new work models. Also, our current business scenario demands not only a careful look at traditional careers, but also at new career paths that are indispensable for our future. Our performance could be adversely affected if we are unable to attract, retain and motivate key talent. As we are highly dependent on the technical skills of our personnel, including successors to crucial leadership positions, as well as their relationships with clients, the loss of key components of our workforce (particularly to emerging competitors, such as start-ups and fintechs), could make it difficult to compete, grow and manage the business. A loss of such expertise could adversely affect our financial performance, future prospects and competitive position.

Certain relevant Brazilian companies in the energy, infrastructure and oil and gas sectors are facing investigations by the CVM, the SEC, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the Brazilian Federal Police and other Brazilian public entities who are responsible for corruption and cartel investigations, in connection with corruption allegations (so called Lava Jato investigations) and, depending on the outcome of such investigations and the time it takes to conclude them, they may face (as some of them already faced) downgrades from credit rating agencies, experience (as some of them already experienced) funding restrictions and have (as some of them already had) a reduction in revenues, among other negative effects. Such negative effects may hinder the ability of those companies to timely honor their financial obligations bringing loses to us as a number of them are our clients. The companies involved in the Lava Jato investigations, a number of which are our clients, may also be (as some of them already have been) prosecuted by investors on the grounds that they were misled by the information released to them, including their financial statements. Moreover, the current corruption investigations have contributed to reduce the value of the securities of several companies. The investment banks (including Itau BBA Securities in NY) that acted as underwriters on public distributions of securities of such investigated companies, and Banco Itau International, our private banking vehicle in Miami, were in the recent past also parties to certain related lawsuits in the U.S., that were either settled or dismissed, and may become parties to other legal proceedings yet to be filed. We cannot predict how long the corruption investigations may continue, or how significant the effects of the corruption investigations may be for the Brazilian economy and for the financial sector that may be investigated for the commercial relationships it may have held with companies and persons involved in Lava Jato investigations. Another high profile investigation, besides Lava Jato, ongoing in Brazil is the so-called Zelotes operation. If the allegations of such investigations are confirmed they may also affect some of our clients and their credit trustworthiness. In March 2016, the Brazilian Internal Revenue Services, or Brazilian IRS, summoned us to account for certain tax proceedings related to BankBoston Brazil which came under investigation in relation to the Zelotes operations. We acquired BankBoston Brazil’s operation from Bank of America in 2006. On December 1, 2016, the Brazilian Federal Police conducted searches at Itaú Unibanco’s premises, to look for documents related to those proceedings, and documents related to payments made to lawyers and consultants that acted on those proceedings. We clarify that the agreement with Bank of America for the acquisition of BankBoston Brazil’s operations included a provision whereby the seller would remain liable and responsible for the conduct of BankBoston’s tax proceedings, including with regard to the retention of lawyers and consultants. Therefore, according to such agreement, any and all payments made by Itaú Unibanco to lawyers and consultants were made strictly on behalf of Bank of America. On July 2017, the Brazilian Federal Public Prosecutor indicted some lawyers and public agents regarding this case, based on their potential participation on the scheme. None of them was Itau’s employees or executives. We remain fully available and will cooperate with the authorities should any further clarification be needed. After reviewing our control procedures and our monitoring systems, we believe we are in compliance with the existing standards, especially related to anti-money laundering standards; notwithstanding, due to the size and breadth of our operations and our commercial relationship with investigated companies or persons, and due to the several banks, both publicly and privately owned, that Itaú Unibanco acquired throughout the last fifteen years, we may also come within the scope of investigations, which may ultimately result in reputational damage, civil or criminal liability. Negative effects on a number of companies may also impact the level of investments in infrastructure in Brazil, which may also lead to lower economic growth.