Hawthorn Bancshares (HWBK) Risk Analysis

The primary source of earnings for the Bank is net interest income. To be profitable, the Bank has to earn more money in interest and fees on loans and other interest-earning assets than it pays as interest on deposits and other interest-bearing liabilities and as other expenses. If prevailing interest rates decrease, the amount of interest the Bank earns on loans and investment securities may decrease more rapidly than the amount of interest the Bank has to pay on deposits and other interest-bearing liabilities. This would result in a decrease in the profitability of the Company and the Bank. Changes in the level or structure of interest rates also affect: - the Bank's ability to originate loans,- the value of the Bank's loan and securities portfolios,- the Bank's ability to realize gains from the sale of loans and securities,- the average life of the Bank's deposits, and - the Bank's ability to obtain deposits. Fluctuations in interest rates will ultimately affect both the level of income and expense recorded on a large portion of the Bank's assets and liabilities, and the fair value of all interest-earning assets, other than interest-earning assets that mature in the short term. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Company repositioned its balance sheet by selling $83.7 million in book value of investment securities for an after-tax realized loss of $9.1 million. The Bank's interest rate management strategy is designed to stabilize net interest income and preserve capital over a broad range of interest rate movements by matching the interest rate sensitivity of assets and liabilities. Although the Company believes that the Bank's current mix of loans, mortgage-backed securities, investment securities and deposits is reasonable, significant fluctuations in interest rates may have a negative effect on the profitability of the Bank.

The operation of our business requires us to manage credit risk. As a lender, the Bank is exposed to the risk that borrowers will be unable to repay their loans according to their terms, and that the collateral securing repayment of their loans, if any, may not be sufficient to ensure repayment. In addition, there are risks inherent in making any loan, including risks with respect to the period of time over which the loan may be repaid, risks relating to proper loan underwriting, risks resulting from changes in economic and industry conditions and risks inherent in dealing with individual borrowers. In order to successfully manage credit risk, we must, among other things, maintain disciplined and prudent underwriting standards and ensure that our loan officers follow those standards. The weakening of these standards for any reason, such as an attempt to attract higher yielding loans, a lack of discipline or diligence by our employees in underwriting and monitoring loans, the inability of our employees to adequately adapt policies and procedures to address changes in economic or other conditions affecting borrowers (such as the current recessionary environment and higher interest rates) and the quality of our loan portfolio, may result in loan defaults, foreclosures and additional charge-offs and may necessitate that we significantly increase our allowance for credit losses, each of which could adversely affect our net income. As a result, our inability to successfully manage credit risk could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations.

Success in the banking industry largely depends on the quality of loans and other assets. A significant source of risk for us arises from the possibility that losses will be sustained because borrowers, guarantors and related parties may fail to perform in accordance with the terms of their loans. The Bank's loan officers are actively encouraged to identify deteriorating loans. Loans are also monitored and categorized through an analysis of their payment status. The Bank's failure to timely and accurately monitor the quality of its loans and other assets could have a materially adverse effect on the operations and financial condition of the Company and the Bank. There is a degree of credit risk associated with any lending activity. The Bank attempts to minimize its credit risk through loan diversification. Although the Bank's loan portfolio is varied, with no undue concentration in any one industry, substantially all of the loans in the portfolio have been made to borrowers in central, west central, and southwest Missouri. Therefore, the loan portfolio is susceptible to factors affecting the central, west central, and southwest Missouri area and the level of non-performing assets is heavily dependent upon local conditions. There can be no assurance that the level of the Bank's non-performing assets will not increase above current levels. High levels of non-performing assets could have a materially adverse effect on the operations and financial condition of the Company and the Bank.

The Bank makes a provision for credit losses based upon management's estimate of probable losses in the loan portfolio and its consideration of prevailing economic and environmental conditions. The amount of future loan losses is susceptible to changes in economic, operating and other conditions, including changes in interest rates, which may be beyond the Company's control, and these losses may exceed current estimates. We cannot fully predict the amount or timing of losses or whether the loss allowance will be adequate in the future. The Bank may need to increase the provision for credit losses through additional provisions in the future if, among other things, the financial condition of any of its borrowers deteriorates, if its borrower fails to perform its obligations to it, or if real estate values decline. Furthermore, various regulatory agencies, as an integral part of their examination process, periodically review the Bank's loan portfolio, provision for credit losses, and real estate acquired by foreclosure. Such agencies may require the Bank to recognize additions to the provision for credit losses based on their judgments of information available to them at the time of the examination. Any additional provision for probable credit losses, whether required as a result of regulatory review or initiated by the Company itself, may materially alter the financial outlook of the Company and the Bank and may have a material adverse effect on the Company's financial condition and results of operations. On January 1, 2023, the Company adopted ASU 2016-13, Financial Instruments - Credit Losses (Topic 326), which sets forth the current expected credit loss standard, or CECL. Previously, the impairment model was based on incurred losses, and investments were recognized as impaired when there was no longer an assumption that future cash flows would be collected in full under the originally contracted terms. Under the new CECL model, we are required to use historical information, current conditions and reasonable forecasts to estimate the expected loss over the life of the loan and record an allowance that, when deducted from the amortized cost basis of the financial asset, presents the net amount expected to be collected on the financial asset. The CECL model is expected to result in more timely recognition of credit losses. The ASU requires new disclosures for financial assets measured at amortized cost, loans and available-for-sale debt securities. Entities are required to apply the standard's provisions as a cumulative-effect adjustment to retained earnings as of the beginning of the first reporting period in which the guidance is adopted. The adoption of the standard by the Company resulted in an increase to the allowance for credit losses of $5.8 million and a liability for unfunded commitments totaling $1.3 million. These one-time cumulative adjustments resulted in a $5.6 million tax-effected decrease to retained earnings. The transition to the CECL model brings with it significantly greater data requirements and changes to methodologies to accurately account for expected losses under the new parameters.

We provide lending to many small- to medium-sized customers, which frequently have fewer financial resources than larger entities (in terms of capital or borrowing capacity). Accordingly, these businesses may be more vulnerable to economic downturns, often need substantial additional capital to expand or compete, and may experience substantial volatility in operating results, any of which may impair the borrower's ability to repay a loan. If these or other borrowers are harmed by adverse business conditions in the markets in which we operate, it may result in an adverse effect to the business, financial condition and results of operations of the Company or the Bank.

The Company's ability to engage in routine funding transactions could be adversely affected by the actions and commercial soundness of other financial institutions. Financial services institutions are interrelated as a result of trading, clearing, counterparty or other relationships. We have exposure to many different industries and counterparties, and we routinely execute transactions with counterparties in the financial industry, including brokers and dealers, commercial banks, investment banks, mutual and hedge funds, and other institutional clients. As a result, defaults by, or even rumors or questions about, one or more financial services institutions, or the financial services industry generally, have led to market-wide liquidity problems and could lead to losses or defaults by us or by other institutions. Many of these transactions expose us to credit risk in the event of default of a counterparty or client. In addition, the Company's credit risk may be exacerbated when the collateral held by us cannot be realized upon or is liquidated at prices not sufficient to recover the full amount of the loan or derivative exposure due us. There is no assurance that any such losses would not materially and adversely affect the Company's results of operations. The recent bank failures of Silicon Valley Bank in California, Signature Bank in New York, and First Republic Bank in California during the first and second quarters of 2023 have caused a degree of panic and uncertainty in the investor community and among bank customers generally. While the Company does not believe that the circumstances of these three banks' failures are indicators of broader issues with the banking system, the failures may reduce customer confidence, affect sources of funding and liquidity, increase regulatory requirements and costs, adversely affect financial markets and/or have a negative reputational ramification for the banking industry, including the Company. The Company will continue to monitor the ongoing events concerning these three banks as well as any future potential bank failures and volatility within the banking industry generally, together with any responsive measures taken by the banking regulators to mitigate or manage potential turmoil in the banking industry.

The Bank is a community bank, and its reputation is one of the most valuable components of our business. As such, we strive to conduct our business in a manner that enhances our reputation. This is done, in part, by recruiting, hiring and retaining employees who share our core values of being an integral part of the communities we serve, delivering superior service to our customers and caring about our customers and associates. However, employee error or employee and customer misconduct could subject us to financial losses or regulatory sanctions and seriously harm our reputation. Misconduct by our employees could include hiding unauthorized activities from us, improper or unauthorized activities on behalf of our clients or improper use of confidential information. It is not always possible to prevent employee error or misconduct, and the precautions we take to prevent and detect this activity may not be effective in all cases. Because the nature of the financial services business involves a high volume of transactions, certain errors may be repeated or compounded before they are discovered and successfully rectified. If our reputation is negatively affected, by the actions of our employees or otherwise, our business and, therefore, our operating results could be materially adversely affected.

As a matter of policy, the Federal Reserve expects a bank holding company to act as a source of financial and managerial strength to its subsidiary banks. The Federal Reserve may charge the bank holding company with engaging in unsafe and unsound practices for failure to adequately commit resources to a subsidiary bank. Accordingly, we may be required to make capital injections into a troubled subsidiary bank, even if such contribution creates a detriment to the Company or its stockholders. If we do not have sufficient resources on hand to fund the capital injection, we may be required to borrow funds or raise capital. Any such loans are subordinate in right of payment to deposits and to certain indebtedness of the subsidiary bank. In the event of bankruptcy of the bank holding company, claims based upon any commitments to fund capital injections are entitled to a priority of payment over claims made by general unsecured creditors, including holders of indebtedness. Thus, any borrowing incurred by the Company to make required capital injections to the Bank are difficult and expensive, and will adversely impact our financial condition, results of operations and future prospects.