Humana (HUM) Risk Factors

A significant portion of our revenues relates to federal and state government health care coverage programs, including the Medicare, military services, and Medicaid programs. These programs accounted for approximately 91% of our total premiums and services revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023. These programs involve various risks, as described further below. - At December 31, 2023, under our contracts with CMS we provided health insurance coverage to approximately 851,300 individual Medicare Advantage members in Florida. These contracts accounted for approximately 14% of our total premiums and services revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023. The loss of these and other CMS contracts (which are generally renewed annually) or significant changes in the Medicare Advantage and Prescription Drug Plan programs as a result of legislative or regulatory action, including changes to the Part D prescription drug benefit design (such as the changes to plan sponsor liability across the different Part D coverage phases that will apply beginning in plan year 2025) or reductions in premium payments to us or increases in member benefits or changes to member eligibility criteria without corresponding increases in premium payments to us, may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position, and cash flows. - Our military services business, which accounted for approximately 1% of our total premiums and services revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily consisted of the TRICARE T2017 East Region contract. The T2017 East Region contract comprises 32 states and covers approximately 6.0 million TRICARE beneficiaries, under which delivery of health care services commenced on January 1, 2018. The T2017 East Region contract, which was originally set to expire on December 31, 2022, was subsequently extended by the United States Department of Defense, or DoD, and is currently scheduled to expire on December 31, 2024 unless further extended. In December 2022, we were awarded the next generation of TRICARE Managed Care Support Contracts, or T-5, for the updated TRICARE East Region by the DoD. The T-5 East Region contract comprises 24 states and Washington, D.C., and covers approximately 4.6 million beneficiaries. The transition period for the T-5 contract began in January 2024 and will overlap the final year of the T2017 contract. The T-5 East Region contract includes certain provisions pursuant to which we have guaranteed certain discounts to expected costs over the life of the contract. The loss of the T2017 or T-5 East Region contracts, should either occur, or our failure to deliver on the contractually agreed discounts, may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position, and cash flows. - CMS uses a risk-adjustment model which adjusts premiums paid to Medicare Advantage, or MA, plans according to health status of covered members. The risk-adjustment model, which CMS implemented pursuant to the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 (BBA) and the Benefits Improvement and Protection Act of 2000 (BIPA), generally pays more where a plan's membership has higher expected costs. Under this model, rates paid to MA plans are based on actuarially determined bids, which include a process whereby our prospective payments are based on our estimated cost of providing standard Medicare-covered benefits to an enrollee with a "national average risk profile." That baseline payment amount is adjusted to account for certain demographic characteristics and health status of our enrolled members. Under the risk-adjustment methodology, all MA plans must collect from providers and submit the necessary diagnosis code information to CMS within prescribed deadlines. The CMS risk-adjustment model uses the diagnosis data, collected from providers, to calculate the health status-related risk-adjusted premium payment to MA plans, which CMS further adjusts for coding pattern differences between the health plans and the government fee-for-service (FFS) program. We generally rely on providers, including certain providers in our network who are our employees, to code their claim submissions with appropriate diagnoses, which we send to CMS as the basis for our health status-adjusted payment received from CMS under the actuarial risk-adjustment model. We also rely on these providers to document appropriately all medical data, including the diagnosis data submitted with claims. In addition, we conduct medical record reviews as part of our data and payment accuracy compliance efforts, to more accurately reflect diagnosis conditions under the risk adjustment model. CMS and the Office of the Inspector General of Health and Human Services, or HHS-OIG, perform audits of various companies' risk adjustment diagnosis data submissions. We refer to these audits as Risk-Adjustment Data Validation Audits, or RADV audits. RADV audits review medical records in an attempt to validate provider medical record documentation and coding practices that influence the calculation of health status-related premium payments to MA plans. In 2012, CMS released an MA contract-level RADV methodology that would extrapolate the results of each CMS RADV audit sample to the audited MA contract's entire health status-related risk adjusted premium amount for the year under audit. In doing so, CMS recognized "that the documentation standard used in RADV audits to determine a contract's payment error (medical records) is different from the documentation standard used to develop the Part C risk-adjustment model (FFS claims)." To correct for this difference, CMS stated that it would apply a "Fee-for-Service Adjuster (FFS Adjuster)" as "an offset to the preliminary recovery amount." This adjuster would be "calculated by CMS based on a RADV-like review of records submitted to support FFS claims data." CMS stated that this methodology would apply to audits beginning with PY 2011. Humana relied on CMS's 2012 guidance in submitting MA bids to CMS. Humana also launched a "Self-Audits" program in 2013 that applied CMS's 2012 RADV audit methodology and included an estimated FFS Adjuster. Humana completed Self-Audits for PYs 2011-2016 and reported results to CMS. In October 2018, however, CMS issued a proposed rule announcing possible changes to the RADV audit methodology, including elimination of the FFS Adjuster. CMS proposed applying its revised methodology, including extrapolated recoveries without application of a FFS Adjuster, to RADV audits dating back to PY 2011. On January 30, 2023, CMS published a final rule related to the RADV audit methodology (Final RADV Rule). The Final RADV Rule confirmed CMS's decision to eliminate the FFS Adjuster. The Final RADV Rule states CMS's intention to extrapolate results from CMS and HHS-OIG RADV audits beginning with PY 2018, rather than PY 2011 as proposed. However, CMS's Final RADV Rule does not adopt a specific sampling, extrapolation or audit methodology. CMS instead stated its general plan to rely on "any statistically valid method . . . that is determined to be well-suited to a particular audit." We believe that the Final RADV Rule fails to address adequately the statutory requirement of actuarial equivalence and violates the Administrative Procedure Act ("APA"). CMS failed to meet its legal obligations in the federal rulemaking process to give a reasoned justification for the rule or provide a meaningful opportunity for public comment. They also chose to apply the rule retroactively rather than prospectively, as required by law. Humana's actuarially certified bids through PY 2023 preserved Humana's position that CMS should apply an FFS Adjuster in any RADV audit that CMS intends to extrapolate. We expect CMS to apply the Final RADV Rule, including the first application of extrapolated audit results to determine audit settlements without a FFS Adjuster, to CMS and HHS-OIG RADV audits conducted for PY 2018 and subsequent years. The Final RADV Rule, including the lack of a FFS Adjuster, and any related regulatory, industry or company reactions, could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position, or cash flows. In addition, as part of our internal compliance efforts, we routinely perform ordinary course reviews of our internal business processes related to, among other things, our risk coding and data submissions in connection with the risk adjustment model. These reviews may also result in the identification of errors and the submission of corrections to CMS that may, either individually or in the aggregate, be material. As such, the result of these reviews may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position, or cash flows. On September 1, 2023, Humana Inc. and Humana Benefit Plan of Texas, Inc. filed suit against the United States Department of Health and Human Services, and Xavier Becerra in his official capacity as Secretary, in the United States District Court, Northern District of Texas, Fort Worth Division seeking a determination that the Final RADV Rule violates the APA and should be set aside. We remain committed to working alongside CMS to promote the integrity of the MA program as well as affordability and cost certainty for our members. It is critical that MA plans are paid accurately and that payment model principles, including the application of a FFS Adjuster, are in accordance with the requirements of the Social Security Act, which, if not implemented correctly could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position, or cash flows. - Our CMS contracts which cover members' prescription drugs under Medicare Part D contain provisions for risk sharing and certain payments for prescription drug costs for which we are not at risk. These provisions, certain of which are described below, affect our ultimate payments from CMS. The premiums from CMS are subject to risk corridor provisions which compare costs targeted in our annual bids to actual prescription drug costs, limited to actual costs that would have been incurred under the standard coverage as defined by CMS. Variances exceeding certain thresholds may result in CMS making additional payments to us or require us to refund to CMS a portion of the premiums we received (known as a "risk corridor"). We estimate and recognize an adjustment to premiums revenue related to the risk corridor payment settlement based upon pharmacy claims experience. The estimate of the settlement associated with these risk corridor provisions requires us to consider factors that may not be certain until CMS completes the applicable final payment year reconciliation, including member eligibility differences with CMS incurred allowable drug costs after rebates and other discounts, and low-income subsidy amounts. Reinsurance and low-income cost subsidies represent payments from CMS in connection with the Medicare Part D program for which we assume no risk. Reinsurance subsidies represent payments for CMS's portion of claims costs which exceed the member's out-of-pocket threshold, or the catastrophic coverage level. Low-income cost subsidies represent payments from CMS for all or a portion of the deductible, the coinsurance and co-payment amounts above the out-of-pocket threshold for low-income beneficiaries. Monthly prospective payments from CMS for reinsurance and low-income cost subsidies are based on assumptions submitted with our annual bid. A reconciliation and settlement of CMS's prospective subsidies against actual prescription drug costs we paid is made after the end of the applicable year. Settlement of the reinsurance and low-income cost subsidies as well as the risk corridor payment is based on a reconciliation made approximately 9 months after the close of each calendar year. This reconciliation process requires us to submit claims data necessary for CMS to administer the program. Our claims data may not pass CMS's claims edit processes due to various reasons, including discrepancies in eligibility or classification of low-income members. To the extent our data does not pass CMS's claim edit processes, we may bear the risk for all or a portion of the claim which otherwise may have been subject to the risk corridor provision or payment which we would have otherwise received as a low-income subsidy or reinsurance claim. In addition, in the event the settlement represents an amount CMS owes us, there is a negative impact on our cash flows and financial condition as a result of financing CMS's share of the risk. The opposite is true in the event the settlement represents an amount we owe CMS. Further, legislative or regulatory changes to how actual prescription drug costs are reported or calculated or other changes to the Part D prescription drug benefit design may lower reinsurance or low-income cost subsidies paid by CMS and may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position, or cash flows. - Our primary care and home health businesses derive a substantial portion of their revenues from third-party payors and directly from the federal and state governments through participation in fee-for-service Medicare. This concentration of revenues subjects these businesses to reductions in Medicare reimbursement rates or changes in the rules governing the Medicare program, including changes to CMS's risk adjustment model that may apply to our primary care business through its contracts with third-party payors. It is reasonably possible that such changes in reimbursement rates or changes to the Medicare programs in which our primary care and home health business participate may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position, or cash flows. - We are subject to various other governmental audits and investigations. Under state laws, our HMOs and health insurance companies are audited by state departments of insurance for financial and contractual compliance. Our HMOs are audited for compliance with health services by state departments of health. Audits and investigations, including audits of risk adjustment data, are also conducted by state attorneys general, CMS, HHS-OIG, the Office of Personnel Management, the Department of Justice, the Department of Labor, and the Defense Contract Audit Agency. All of these activities could result in the loss of licensure or temporary or permanent exclusion from participating in various government health care programs (such as Medicare and Medicaid), including a limitation on our ability to market or sell products, the imposition of fines, penalties and other civil and criminal sanctions, or changes in our business practices. The outcome of any current or future governmental or internal investigations cannot be accurately predicted, nor can we predict any resulting penalties, fines or other sanctions that may be imposed at the discretion of federal or state regulatory authorities. Nevertheless, it is reasonably possible that any such outcome of litigation, penalties, fines or other sanctions could be substantial, and the outcome of these matters may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position, and cash flows. Certain of these matters could also affect our reputation. In addition, disclosure of any adverse investigation or audit results or sanctions could negatively affect our industry or our reputation in various markets and make it more difficult for us to sell our products and services.