Green Brick Partners (GRBK) AI Stock Analysis

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Green Brick Partners

(NYSE:GRBK)

79Outperform

Green Brick Partners demonstrates robust financial performance with strong revenue growth, profitability, and strategic expansion plans. The company's earnings call highlights significant achievements and a positive outlook, despite some challenges. Technical indicators suggest a neutral trend, and the valuation appears favorable, boosting the overall score.

Green Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.57B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)366.49K

Price to Earnings (P/E)6.9

Beta (1Y)1.36

Revenue Growth18.07%

EPS Growth36.74%

CountryUS

Employees650

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength63

IndustryResidential Construction

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)8.43

Shares Outstanding44,498,190

10 Day Avg. Volume264,948

30 Day Avg. Volume366,488

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.19

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)1.22

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)22.10

P/FCF Ratio22.10

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering1

Green Brick Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGreen Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) is a diversified homebuilding and land development company primarily engaged in the design, construction, and sale of residential properties. Operating in high-growth U.S. markets, the company collaborates with its team of builders to deliver quality homes and communities. Green Brick Partners is known for its commitment to sustainable practices and innovative designs that cater to a diverse clientele, ranging from first-time buyers to luxury homeowners.

How the Company Makes MoneyGreen Brick Partners generates revenue through the sale of residential properties, including single-family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. The company's revenue model is primarily based on homebuilding operations across its various builder brands and markets. Key revenue streams include home sales, land development, and the sale of developed lots to other builders. Green Brick Partners also leverages strategic partnerships with contractors and suppliers to optimize costs and enhance profitability. Additionally, the company's focus on sustainable building practices and customer-centric designs helps in maintaining a competitive edge in the housing market, thereby contributing to its earnings.

Green Brick Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Green Brick Partners exhibits strong financial health with notable growth and profitability improvements across its financial statements. The company demonstrates effective revenue generation, cost management, and equity utilization. Despite a decrease in operating cash flow, the overall financial position remains robust with low leverage and high equity backing.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Green Brick Partners has shown strong revenue growth, with a 18.06% increase from 2023 to 2024. The company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 33.52% for 2024, up from 30.83% in 2023, indicating improved cost efficiency. The net profit margin also improved to 18.18% in 2024 from 16.01% in 2023. EBIT and EBITDA margins are both strong at 22.72%, reflecting robust operational performance.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet of Green Brick Partners is stable, with a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01 in 2024, which represents minimal leverage risk. Return on Equity (ROE) has improved to 23.48% in 2024 from 21.88% in 2023, showcasing effective use of equity. The equity ratio has slightly increased to 72.26%, indicating a solid financial structure with a high proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Positive

Green Brick Partners experienced a significant reduction in operating cash flow in 2024 compared to 2023, but maintains positive free cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.06, indicating some cash conversion challenges. However, the company generated a free cash flow of $21.55 million, which showcases its ability to generate cash after capital expenditures.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.10B	1.78B	1.76B	1.40B	976.02M
	Gross Profit
703.52M	548.18M	523.02M	362.06M	234.60M
	EBIT
476.95M	355.20M	356.71M	225.05M	119.17M
	EBITDA
476.95M	358.75M	361.45M	230.53M	126.14M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
381.58M	284.63M	291.90M	190.21M	113.69M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
141.54M	179.76M	76.59M	78.70M	19.48M
	Total Assets
2.25B	1.90B	1.66B	1.42B	988.85M
	Total Debt
14.87M	354.76M	371.42M	339.66M	222.46M
	Net Debt
-126.67M	175.00M	294.84M	260.97M	202.98M
	Total Liabilities
551.83M	548.68M	543.62M	511.31M	339.44M
	Stockholders Equity
1.63B	1.30B	1.06B	874.55M	640.24M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
21.55M	205.54M	88.66M	-94.41M	32.23M
	Operating Cash Flow
25.91M	213.34M	90.68M	-92.38M	35.10M
	Investing Cash Flow
27.84M	-13.35M	-6.48M	-2.03M	-13.30M
	Financing Cash Flow
-93.51M	-93.80M	-84.48M	154.33M	-25.85M

Green Brick Partners Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price57.83

Price Trends

50DMA

59.41

Negative

100DMA

61.60

Negative

200DMA

66.99

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.27

Positive

RSI

48.43

Neutral

STOCH

45.42

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRBK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 57.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.70, below the 50-day MA of 59.41, and below the 200-day MA of 66.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GRBK.

Green Brick Partners Risk Analysis

Green Brick Partners disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Green Brick Partners reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Green Brick Partners Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (59)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GRBK	79 Outperform	$2.57B	6.86	26.08%	―	18.07%	36.74%
MTH	73 Outperform	$4.96B	6.45	16.12%	2.25%	4.18%	7.50%
TMHC	73 Outperform	$6.05B	7.17	15.80%	―	10.11%	19.06%
KBH	66 Neutral	$4.11B	7.02	15.60%	1.74%	5.54%	11.25%
BZH	61 Neutral	$635.61M	5.18	10.32%	―	12.27%	-22.28%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$11.20B	10.09	-1.41%	3.96%	1.31%	-16.95%
LGIH	45 Neutral	$1.51B	7.78	10.07%	―	-6.61%	-1.56%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GRBK

Green Brick Partners

57.83

-0.31

-0.53%

BZH

Beazer Homes

20.37

-10.35

-33.69%

KBH

KB Home

57.54

-8.00

-12.21%

MTH

Meritage

69.14

-10.83

-13.54%

TMHC

Taylor Morrison

59.42

0.47

0.80%

LGIH

LGI Homes

64.61

-35.99

-35.78%

Green Brick Partners Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 26, 2025 | % Change Since: -0.02% | Next Earnings Date: May 6, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Green Brick Partners demonstrated strong financial performance and significant growth in home closings and revenue. Despite challenges like a decline in backlog revenue and the impact of rising mortgage rates, the company's strategic land acquisitions and robust financial health indicate a positive outlook.

Highlights

Record Home Closings and Revenue Growth

In Q4 2024, Green Brick closed a record 1019 homes, with home closing revenue up 24% year-over-year to $557 million, marking significant growth in infill and infill adjacent submarkets.

Strong Financial Performance

Net income for Q4 grew 42% to $104 million, with diluted EPS increasing 46% year-over-year to $2.31. For the full year 2024, diluted annual EPS was $8.45, beating last year's record by 38%.

Impressive Growth in Homebuilding Gross Margins

Full-year homebuilding gross margins improved from 20.6% in 2015 to 33.8% in 2024, representing a 64% improvement.

Expanding Land and Lot Position

Total land inventory grew almost 8x from approximately 4,700 lots in 2015 to over 37,800 lots in 2024, while maintaining a low debt to total capital ratio of 17.2%.

High Return on Equity and Assets

Full year return on equity in 2024 was 26.8% and return on assets was 18.2%, both indicating strong financial health.

Positive Start to 2025

Despite challenges, the company remains optimistic about long-term housing demand, driven by millennials and Gen Z entering prime home buying years.

Lowlights

Backlog Revenue Decline

Backlog revenue at the end of Q4 decreased 10.7% year-over-year to $496 million.

Impact of Rising Mortgage Rates

Demand decelerated in December due to seasonality and the impact of rising mortgage rates, leading to increased incentives.

Company Guidance

During the fourth quarter of 2024, Green Brick Partners reported record results. They closed 1,019 homes, generating $557 million in home closing revenue, a 24% increase year-over-year, with 80% of these revenues from infill and infill adjacent submarkets. Net sales orders rose by 29%, and average selling communities grew by 19%. Net income for the quarter rose 42% to $104 million, and diluted EPS increased 46% to $2.31. For the full year, home closings reached 3,783 units, producing over $2.07 billion in revenue, a 17.1% increase. Homebuilding gross margins improved to 33.8%, up 290 basis points from the previous year. Green Brick ended the year with a strong balance sheet, a 10.7% net debt to total capital ratio, and a backlog revenue of $496 million. The company plans to increase land development spending by 46% in 2025, focusing on strategic infill locations and leveraging their Trophy brand to capitalize on affordable housing demand.

Green Brick Partners Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Green Brick Partners Appoints Jeffery Cox as Interim CFO

Neutral

Mar 19, 2025

On March 17, 2025, Richard A. Costello resigned as Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer of Green Brick Partners, Inc., and Jeffery Cox was appointed as the interim replacement. Cox, who has extensive experience in the homebuilding industry, has been with the company since June 2023 and has played a significant role in launching the company’s mortgage subsidiary and overseeing its title operations.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.