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Guild Holdings (GHLD)
NYSE:GHLD
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Guild Holdings
(NYSE:GHLD)
66Neutral
Guild Holdings (GHLD) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$950.22M
Dividend Yield3.28%
Average Volume (3M)10.33K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.8
Beta (1Y)0.39
Revenue Growth40.27%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,270
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength84
IndustryFinancial - Mortgages
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.54
Shares Outstanding21,570,827
10 Day Avg. Volume16,357
30 Day Avg. Volume10,327
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)2.11
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)1.10
P/FCF Ratio1.10
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.58Price Target Upside7.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
Guild Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGuild Holdings Company, a mortgage company, originates, sells, and services residential mortgage loans in the United States. The company operates approximately 260 branches with licenses in 49 states. It originates residential mortgages through retail and correspondent channels. The company was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyGuild Holdings generates revenue through the origination and sale of residential mortgage loans. The company earns money primarily from the fees and interest associated with originating mortgage loans and from selling these loans to secondary market investors, including government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Additionally, Guild Holdings generates income from the servicing of mortgage loans, earning fees for managing loan accounts and processing payments over the life of the loan. Significant partnerships with real estate agents, builders, and financial institutions help expand its customer base and drive loan origination volumes, contributing to its overall revenue.
Guild Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Guild Holdings exhibits revenue growth and some profitability improvements. However, the company faces significant challenges with cash flow and operational stability. Despite a decreased leverage indicated by the balance sheet, liquidity risks remain due to negative free cash flow and operational cash management issues.Income Statement
Guild Holdings shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with a revenue increase from $663.86M in 2023 to $969.89M. However, profitability remains a concern with a net profit margin of approximately 10.01% in the TTM, improved from a net loss in the previous year. The EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate better operational efficiency, but the prior periods show fluctuating performance, suggesting potential volatility.60
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows moderate financial health. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.24 in the TTM, down from previous years, indicating decreased leverage. However, the equity ratio remains relatively stable at around 26.29%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. Return on equity has improved to approximately 7.74% in the TTM, yet the stability of these metrics over time poses questions about sustained performance.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals challenges, with negative free cash flow in the TTM despite prior positive cash flow years. Free cash flow growth is negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, indicating a need for enhanced cash management. This highlights potential liquidity risks and the need for improved operational cash generation.40
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 1.05B | 663.86M | 1.16B | 1.58B | 1.62B |
| Gross Profit | ||||
| 1.05B | 677.89M | 473.93M | 489.19M | 1.59B |
| EBIT | ||||
| -219.69M | 59.49M | 487.22M | 386.92M | 494.07M |
| EBITDA | ||||
| 24.55M | 59.49M | 840.77M | 486.15M | 619.94M |
| Net Income Common Stockholders | ||||
| 97.13M | -39.01M | 328.60M | 283.77M | 370.58M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 118.20M | 136.82M | 137.89M | 243.11M | 334.62M |
| Total Assets | ||||
| 4.77B | 3.68B | 3.24B | 4.38B | 4.82B |
| Total Debt | ||||
| 300.00M | 526.78M | 925.91M | 2.28B | 2.39B |
| Net Debt | ||||
| 181.80M | 406.52M | 788.02M | 2.04B | 2.05B |
| Total Liabilities | ||||
| 3.51B | 2.49B | 1.99B | 3.46B | 4.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | ||||
| 1.25B | 1.18B | 1.25B | 919.98M | 735.99M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -668.99M | -97.23M | 1.26B | 675.85M | -476.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | ||||
| -659.62M | -91.72M | 1.26B | 680.46M | -468.04M |
| Investing Cash Flow | ||||
| -152.39M | -136.60M | -7.18M | -104.66M | -18.02M |
| Financing Cash Flow | ||||
| 809.69M | 208.95M | -1.35B | -667.31M | 718.96M |
Guild Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
14.49
Price Trends
12.71
Positive
12.91
Positive
13.84
Positive
Market Momentum
0.70
Negative
65.40
Neutral
77.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GHLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.73, above the 50-day MA of 12.71, and above the 200-day MA of 13.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GHLD.
Guild Holdings Risk Analysis
Guild Holdings disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Guild Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Guild Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $836.56M | 12.42 | 5.99% | 3.30% | 6.06% | -15.21% | |
73 Outperform | $995.47M | 10.32 | 5.95% | 5.14% | 7.54% | -2.82% | |
73 Outperform | $1.00B | 9.12 | 9.24% | 11.19% | 3.82% | -12.74% | |
68 Neutral | $901.74M | 13.15 | 5.68% | 5.33% | 7.79% | -8.83% | |
66 Neutral | $950.22M | 9.81 | 7.97% | 3.28% | 40.27% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $14.39B | 9.81 | 8.95% | 4.37% | 16.38% | -11.64% | |
55 Neutral | $1.06B | 13.85 | 7.90% | 2.96% | 9.99% | 1.88% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GHLD
Guild Holdings
15.23
1.37
9.88%
BRKL
Brookline Bancorp
10.12
1.07
11.82%
OCFC
Oceanfirst Financial
15.55
0.71
4.78%
FBMS
The First Bancshares
33.81
10.43
44.61%
BBDC
Barings BDC
9.29
1.04
12.61%
CNOB
ConnectOne Bancorp
21.80
3.69
20.38%
Guild Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 6, 2025 | % Change Since: 15.00% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant growth in originations, net income, and purchase volumes, alongside strategic acquisitions and industry recognition. However, challenges such as the decrease in retained MSR and ongoing rate headwinds were noted. Overall, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.Highlights
Exceptional Growth in Originations
Total originations increased 57% year over year to $24 billion, outpacing the industry's 22% growth as per the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Record Net Income and Revenue
Net income attributable to Guild was $97.1 million compared to a net loss of $39 million in the prior year. Adjusted net income rose 88% to $90.2 million.
Strong Performance in Purchase Originations
Purchase originations accounted for 88% of closed loan volumes, significantly outperforming the industry average of 72%.
Expansion of Servicing Portfolio
Servicing portfolio grew to $93 billion, a 9% increase from the previous year, maintaining high quality.
Successful Integration and Growth
Acquisitions and organic growth resulted in doubling the number of loan officers since 2020, contributing to above-industry-average loan production.
Industry Recognition and Awards
Guild received multiple industry awards, including being named the most reviewed lender on Zillow.com and receiving Fannie Mae's star performer recognition for the eighth consecutive year.
Lowlights
Decrease in Retained MSR
The UPB of retained MSR has been gradually decreasing, down 13% to 15% year over year, influenced by aggressive service release correspondent pricing.
Challenges with Rate Environment
Expectations of ongoing rate headwinds may lead to quarter-to-quarter variability, affecting the potential for refinance activity.
Company Guidance
In the Guild Holdings Company's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call, the company reported significant growth across various metrics. Total originations increased by 57% year-over-year to $24 billion, surpassing the industry's 22% growth. Net revenue rose by 60% to $1 billion, while expenses increased by only 33%, highlighting operational efficiency. The company achieved a net income of $97.1 million compared to a prior year net loss of $39 million. Adjusted net income grew by 88% to $90.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 80% to $134.8 million. The company's gain on sale margin for the year was 332 basis points, with a fourth-quarter margin of 317 basis points. The purchase origination segment represented 88% of the closed loan volume, outperforming the industry average of 72%. The servicing portfolio grew to $93 billion, with a 9% increase from the prior year, and the refinance capture rate improved to 44%. The company maintained a HUD tier one rating for its servicing business. Looking ahead, Guild Holdings plans to continue leveraging its expanded loan officer network and make strategic investments in technology to further drive growth and market share gains.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.