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Geron Corp (GERN)
NASDAQ:GERN
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Geron
(NASDAQ:GERN)46Neutral
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Revenues of $47.5M were slightly above the pre-announcement of $45-$46M.
Negative Factors
Investor Confidence
There is concern and rattled confidence in the team's capabilities due to the moderated launch trajectory in its second quarter.
Product Launch
A slower product launch is expected, leading to a decreased target price.
Geron (GERN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.10B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)17.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.99
Revenue Growth32387.34%
EPS Growth15.93%
CountryUS
Employees141
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength74
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.27
Shares Outstanding636,904,500
10 Day Avg. Volume26,430,230
30 Day Avg. Volume17,062,531
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)37.41
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-6.30
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.50Price Target Upside160.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
Geron Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGeron Corporation is a biotechnology company focused on the development and commercialization of innovative therapeutics for the treatment of cancer. The company operates in the biopharmaceutical sector, with a primary emphasis on its telomerase inhibitor program. Geron's lead product, imetelstat, is a first-in-class telomerase inhibitor currently being developed for hematologic myeloid malignancies.
How the Company Makes MoneyGeron Corporation primarily makes money through the development and potential commercialization of its proprietary drug candidates. The company's revenue model is heavily reliant on the successful clinical development, regulatory approval, and commercialization of its lead drug, imetelstat. Geron generates revenue through collaboration agreements, milestone payments, and potential future product sales. The company has partnered with pharmaceutical companies for the development and potential commercialization of its drug candidates, which also contributes to its revenue streams. Additionally, Geron may generate income from licensing agreements, research grants, and other strategic collaborations in the biopharmaceutical industry.
Geron Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Geron faces significant financial challenges with negative profitability and cash flow metrics, although there are signs of revenue growth. The balance sheet shows a heavily leveraged structure, which could pose risks but also offer growth opportunities if managed well. The company needs to focus on improving operational efficiency and cash generation to stabilize its financial health.Income Statement
Geron's income statement shows a challenging financial position with consistent net losses and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins over the years. Despite a significant increase in total revenue in 2024, the company still reported a substantial net loss. The revenue growth is promising but overshadowed by the high costs leading to negative profitability margins.40
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio indicating significant leverage, but the company has been able to maintain positive equity levels. The equity ratio has been stable, suggesting a moderate balance between debt and equity funding. Overall, the company's asset base has grown, but liabilities have also increased significantly.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Geron's cash flow analysis indicates negative operating and free cash flows, reflecting challenges in generating cash from operations. Despite this, the company has managed to secure substantial financing inflows. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains concerning, emphasizing the need for improved operational cash generation.45
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 76.99M | 237.00K | 596.00K | 1.39M | 253.00K | Gross Profit |
| 75.74M | -123.50M | -272.00K | 610.00K | -49.80M | EBIT |
| -173.73M | -193.94M | -138.55M | -114.00M | -76.91M | EBITDA |
| -154.85M | -174.78M | -134.15M | -111.59M | -73.92M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -174.57M | -184.13M | -141.03M | -120.95M | -75.61M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 406.57M | 333.70M | 173.11M | 183.72M | 196.64M | Total Assets |
| 593.78M | 394.08M | 190.57M | 226.03M | 270.73M | Total Debt |
| 3.24M | 85.90M | 55.75M | 55.00M | 29.72M | Net Debt |
| -75.78M | 15.88M | -1.46M | 20.13M | 19.43M | Total Liabilities |
| 313.46M | 146.13M | 110.58M | 99.62M | 59.78M | Stockholders Equity |
| 280.32M | 247.95M | 80.00M | 126.42M | 210.95M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -219.30M | -168.57M | -127.81M | -95.76M | -67.05M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -218.62M | -167.74M | -127.38M | -95.56M | -66.65M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -106.00M | -180.32M | 62.07M | 71.95M | -105.32M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 334.37M | 362.02M | 87.26M | 48.56M | 168.35M |
Geron Technical Analysis
Negative
1.73
Price Trends
2.79
Negative
3.40
Negative
3.92
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.35
Positive
24.57
Positive
23.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GERN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.27, below the 50-day MA of 2.79, and below the 200-day MA of 3.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.57 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GERN.
Geron Risk Analysis
Geron disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Geron reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Geron Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $10.80B | 21.77 | 23.13% | ― | 18.49% | 176.71% | |
49 Neutral | $7.05B | 0.34 | -55.09% | 2.46% | 25.27% | -3.43% | |
46 Neutral | $1.10B | ― | -66.09% | ― | 32387.34% | 15.93% | |
37 Underperform | $57.99M | ― | 41.08% | ― | -0.55% | 49.85% | |
36 Underperform | $3.71M | ― | -807.39% | ― | -80.98% | 62.27% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GERN
Geron
1.73
-0.41
-19.16%
CYCC
Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals
0.32
-2.20
-87.30%
EXEL
Exelixis
38.58
16.12
71.77%
KPTI
Karyopharm Therapeutics
6.89
-15.31
-68.96%
Geron Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 26, 2025 | % Change Since: -27.00% | Next Earnings Date: May 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlights significant achievements such as FDA approval and strong cash reserves, but also emphasizes challenges like flat revenue trends and the need for strategic adjustments. The sentiment is mixed, with both positive progress and areas needing improvement.Highlights
FDA Approval and Market Launch of RYTELO
RYTELO, a first-in-class telomerase inhibitor, was approved by the FDA in June 2024 and launched in the U.S. for the treatment of lower-risk MDS patients. It achieved $76.5 million in net product revenue by year-end, surpassing internal expectations.
Strong Cash Position
Geron ended the year with approximately $503 million in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and marketable securities, positioning the company to potentially reach profitability without additional financing.
Favorable Regulatory Developments in Europe
The CHMP adopted a positive opinion recommending RYTELO's approval in Europe, with a final decision expected from the European Commission in the first half of 2025.
Pipeline Progress in Myelofibrosis
80% enrollment achieved in the pivotal Phase 3 IMpactMF trial for imetelstat in JAKi relapsed/refractory myelofibrosis, with interim analysis expected in the second half of 2026.
Lowlights
Flat Revenue Trends
Despite exceeding initial revenue expectations, RYTELO's revenue trends have been flat over the last few months, with new patient starts not meeting expectations.
Leadership Changes and Challenges
Commercial and medical affairs leadership changes were implemented a few months into RYTELO's launch to address flat new patient starts and refine strategies.
Higher than Expected Operating Expenses
Total operating expenses for 2024 were $250.7 million, an increase from $194.2 million in 2023, primarily due to higher personnel expenses and stock-based compensation.
Company Guidance
During the Geron Corporation's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call, the management provided detailed guidance on their financial performance and strategic initiatives. RYTELO, Geron's first-in-class telomerase inhibitor, achieved FDA approval in June 2024 and generated $47.5 million in net product revenue in Q4, contributing to a total of $76.5 million since its launch. Despite early success, the company observed flat revenue trends, prompting strategic changes, including leadership updates and targeted efforts to increase new patient starts across different treatment lines. Geron ended 2024 with approximately $503 million in cash, projecting a strong financial position to reach profitability without additional financing, contingent upon meeting internal sales and operating expense expectations. Furthermore, the company highlighted ongoing development in myelofibrosis, with 80% enrollment in the pivotal Phase 3 IMpactMF trial, anticipating key interim and final analyses in 2026 and 2028, respectively, which could potentially double RYTELO's commercial opportunity.Geron Corporate Events
Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Geron to Showcase RYTELO Success at Healthcare Conference
Positive
Jan 13, 2025
Geron Corporation is set to participate in the 43rd Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference to discuss its promising commercial launch of RYTELO in the U.S. market. The company has reported strong financial results for RYTELO, with significant revenue growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2024, and anticipates reaching profitability without additional financing. The company highlights the potential market expansion opportunities for RYTELO, which could be further enhanced by positive outcomes from ongoing clinical trials, potentially doubling its commercial opportunity.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.