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Genesco Inc. (GCO)
NYSE:GCO
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Genesco
(NYSE:GCO)
46Neutral
Genesco (GCO) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$231.03M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)366.41K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.27
Revenue Growth0.02%
EPS Growth-31.11%
CountryUS
Employees4,200
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength49
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.77
Shares Outstanding11,038,311
10 Day Avg. Volume401,044
30 Day Avg. Volume366,407
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.11
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-2.70
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.00Price Target Upside91.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering0
Genesco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGenesco Inc. operates as a retailer and wholesaler of footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company operates through four segments: Journeys Group, Schuh Group, Johnston & Murphy Group, and Licensed Brands. The Journeys Group segment offers footwear and accessories through the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, and Little Burgundy retail chains, as well as through e-commerce and catalogs for young men, women, and children. The Schuh Group segment operates Schuh retail footwear stores that offer casual and athletic footwear, as well as sells footwear through e-commerce. The Johnston & Murphy Group segment is involved in the retail and e-commerce operations; and wholesale distribution of men's dress and casual footwear, apparel, and accessories, as well as women's footwear and accessories. The Licensed Brands segment markets footwear under the Levi's, Dockers, and G.H. Bass brands for men, women, and children, as well as designs and manufactures the STARTER and ETONIC brands footwear. As of January 29, 2022, the company operated approximately 1,425 retail stores in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland primarily under the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, Schuh, Little Burgundy, and Johnston & Murphy names. Its e-commerce websites include journeys.com, journeyskidz.com, journeys.ca, schuh.co.uk, schuh.ie, schuh.eu, johnstonmurphy.com, littleburgundyshoes.com, johnstonmurphy.ca, nashvilleshoewarehouse.com, and dockersshoes.com. Genesco Inc. was incorporated in 1924 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
How the Company Makes MoneyGenesco Inc. generates revenue through a multi-faceted business model that includes retail sales, wholesale distribution, and licensing. The primary source of income is retail sales from its chain of specialty stores, such as Journeys and Schuh, which sell footwear and accessories directly to consumers. Wholesale distribution contributes to revenue by supplying footwear to external retailers and department stores. Additionally, Johnston & Murphy, as a premium brand, offers both retail and wholesale channels, enhancing the company's revenue streams. Key factors contributing to Genesco's earnings include strategic store locations, brand recognition, and customer loyalty programs. Partnerships with popular footwear brands and effective supply chain management also play essential roles in sustaining revenue growth.
Genesco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Genesco is facing financial challenges with a negative net income and inconsistent free cash flow growth. The balance sheet shows moderate stability but is burdened by rising debt levels, and there are operational inefficiencies impacting profitability.Income Statement
Genesco's income statement reveals a challenging trajectory in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with a negative net income reflecting a significant downturn in profitability. The gross profit margin remains healthy, but the net profit margin has turned negative. Revenue has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline from the previous year. The declining EBIT margin further indicates operational inefficiencies.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet highlights moderate stability with a debt-to-equity ratio suggesting considerable leverage. Stockholders' equity has slightly decreased, indicating a potential risk in financial stability. The equity ratio is reasonable, maintaining a balance between assets and liabilities, but the increasing debt levels could pose future risks.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows some strengths, such as a positive operating cash flow in the TTM, which is a positive indicator of internal capital generation. However, free cash flow growth has been inconsistent, and the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests pressure on cash flow relative to earnings.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 2.32B | 2.32B | 2.38B | 2.42B | 1.79B | 2.20B | Gross Profit |
| 1.09B | 1.10B | 1.14B | 1.18B | 804.47M | 1.06B | EBIT |
| 6.90M | -13.46M | 51.03M | 104.41M | 42.13M | 60.49M | EBITDA |
| 45.17M | 35.84M | 136.66M | 190.36M | -59.66M | 135.37M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -26.00M | -16.83M | 71.92M | 114.85M | -56.03M | 61.38M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 33.58M | 35.16M | 47.99M | 320.52M | 215.09M | 81.42M | Total Assets |
| 1.44B | 1.33B | 1.46B | 1.56B | 1.59B | 1.68B | Total Debt |
| 572.18M | 522.94M | 580.43M | 632.64M | 734.04M | 805.04M | Net Debt |
| 538.61M | 487.79M | 532.44M | 312.12M | 518.95M | 723.62M | Total Liabilities |
| 918.62M | 758.69M | 849.46M | 959.63M | 1.02B | 1.06B | Stockholders Equity |
| 516.90M | 571.20M | 606.97M | 602.47M | 566.76M | 619.34M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 51.27M | 34.49M | -224.82M | 185.97M | 133.61M | 87.40M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 89.23M | 94.80M | -164.88M | 239.87M | 157.74M | 117.17M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -37.75M | -60.00M | -59.93M | -33.90M | -24.02M | 53.31M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -40.23M | -47.58M | -45.53M | -101.17M | -3.16M | -256.51M |
Genesco Technical Analysis
Negative
20.93
Price Trends
33.79
Negative
35.35
Negative
31.35
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.61
Negative
25.93
Positive
45.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.33, below the 50-day MA of 33.79, and below the 200-day MA of 31.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 25.93 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GCO.
Genesco Risk Analysis
Genesco disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Genesco reported the most risks in the “Ability to Sell” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Genesco Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $5.94B | 6.63 | 57.76% | ― | 3.53% | 24.55% | |
71 Outperform | $3.19B | 18.59 | 17.27% | ― | 8.31% | 3.96% | |
67 Neutral | $597.84M | 8.21 | 11.97% | 2.44% | 2.30% | 0.88% | |
67 Neutral | $602.30M | 5.72 | 17.83% | 1.56% | -1.28% | 2.83% | |
59 Neutral | $12.27B | 11.11 | -0.54% | 3.71% | 1.45% | -20.42% | |
55 Neutral | $1.38B | 118.40 | 0.62% | ― | -2.20% | ― | |
46 Neutral | $231.03M | ― | -3.49% | ― | 0.02% | -31.11% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GCO
Genesco
20.93
-6.86
-24.69%
CROX
Crocs
105.99
-39.76
-27.28%
FL
Foot Locker
14.54
-12.98
-47.17%
BOOT
Boot Barn
104.17
4.53
4.55%
SCVL
Shoe Carnival
22.00
-14.44
-39.63%
CAL
Caleres
17.30
-22.39
-56.41%
Genesco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 7, 2025 | % Change Since: -35.40% | Next Earnings Date: May 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted a strong performance in the fourth quarter, driven by the success of the Journeys segment and significant digital growth. However, challenges remain in the Schuh and Johnston and Murphy businesses, along with expected gross margin pressures in the upcoming fiscal year.Highlights
Strong Performance in Fourth Quarter
The company delivered revenue and gross margins that exceeded expectations, with operating profit at the high end of the forecast. Comparable sales increased 10%, with stores up mid-single digits and digital up high teens.
Journeys Segment Success
Journeys' performance outpaced the overall market, with comparable sales accelerating to double digits for the second consecutive quarter. The turnaround was aided by strategic growth initiatives, leading to increased allocations and successful full-price selling.
Digital Business Growth
The digital business grew by double digits, expanding penetration to 25% and effectively doubling in size over the last five years to over half a billion dollars.
Loyalty Program Expansion
Membership in loyalty programs grew, reaching over 10 million members, enhancing data analytics and CRM capabilities.
Store Optimization
64 Journeys store closures were executed to align with shopping patterns, improving productivity and profitability.
Lowlights
Challenges in Schuh Business
Schuh faced a very challenging and highly promotional declining UK market, leading to flat top-line performance and decreased profitability due to store deleverage and promotional pressures.
Johnston and Murphy Headwinds
Johnston and Murphy faced headwinds with a slowdown in the market for men's non-athletic premium footwear, affecting sales and profitability despite strong product introductions.
Genesco Brands Group Sales Decline
Efforts to simplify the license portfolio led to lower sales in the short term but more profit, impacting both Q4 and full-year results.
Gross Margin Pressure Expected
For fiscal 2026, a gross margin decline of 20 to 30 basis points is expected due to product and channel mix shifts, and the exit of certain licenses.
Company Guidance
During the Genesco Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Conference Call, the company reported several key metrics reflecting robust performance and strategic growth initiatives. The fourth quarter saw revenue increase to $746 million, up approximately 1% despite one less week of sales and a reduced number of stores. Comparable sales grew by 10%, with store sales up 6% and digital sales soaring by 18%. The company achieved an adjusted EPS of $3.26, a $0.67 improvement from last year, despite the impact of the retail calendar's 53rd week. Gross margins expanded by 60 basis points, driven by strong full-price selling and fewer markdowns. For fiscal 2025, comparable sales returned to positive territory, rising 3%, with total sales at the high end of guidance despite more store closures than planned. Digital business grew by double digits, expanding its penetration to 25% and significantly growing membership in loyalty programs to over 10 million members. Looking ahead, Genesco anticipates a 2% to 4% increase in overall comp sales for fiscal 2026, despite a $30 million impact from store closures and a $14 million effect from a weaker pound sterling, with a focus on accelerating Journeys' growth through store remodels and strategic investments.Genesco Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Genesco Updates Employment Protection Agreements for Executives
Neutral
Feb 7, 2025
On February 6, 2025, Genesco Inc.’s Compensation Committee approved amendments to its Employment Protection Agreement. The changes allow Termination Notices during active negotiations for transactions that could lead to a Change in Control and remove automatic termination upon reaching a certain retirement age, impacting executive employment stability during potential company transitions.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Genesco Reports 10% Sales Increase, Reaffirms Guidance
Positive
Jan 10, 2025
Genesco Inc. reported a 10% increase in comparable sales for the fourth fiscal quarter-to-date, with significant growth in both store and e-commerce sales. The company’s strongest performance was observed in the Journeys Group with a 14% sales increase, while Schuh Group saw a 3% rise and Johnston & Murphy Group experienced a 1% decline. As a result of the improved sales performance, Genesco reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance, projecting full-year earnings per share between $0.80 and $1.00. The company is focusing on optimizing its store fleet through accelerated closures and is optimistic about continuing growth and profitability in fiscal 2026.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.