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Naked Wines plc (GB:WINE)
LSE:WINE

Naked Wines plc (WINE) AI Stock Analysis

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GBNaked Wines plc
(LSE:WINE)
56Neutral
Naked Wines plc shows promising cash flow improvements and strong technical momentum, but profitability challenges and valuation concerns weigh heavily. Strategic initiatives and a high retention rate are positive signs, yet increased customer acquisition costs and inventory issues remain significant risks.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Naked Wines has reported 'solid' peak trading, with Q3 cc revenues improving.
Strategic Planning
Naked Wines is planning to update the market on its strategic plan, which is viewed as a key catalyst for value recognition.
Negative Factors
Inventory Costs
One-off inventory liquidation costs in FY25 see a reduction in EBIT by approximately £2m.

Naked Wines plc (WINE) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Naked Wines plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNaked Wines plc (WINE) is a UK-based online wine retailer that connects customers directly with independent winemakers. The company operates primarily through its subscription-based model, offering a platform for wine enthusiasts to access a curated selection of boutique wines while providing winemakers with the capital and customer base needed to grow their businesses. Naked Wines focuses on delivering quality wines at competitive prices by cutting out the traditional supply chain intermediaries.
How the Company Makes MoneyNaked Wines makes money primarily through its subscription model, where customers become 'Angels' by committing to a monthly investment that is used to fund independent winemakers. In return, Angels receive exclusive access to wines at wholesale prices, along with additional perks such as free shipping and personalized recommendations. The company earns revenue from the markup on wines sold to non-subscribers and also benefits from the retention and loyalty of its Angel members, who provide a consistent revenue stream. Strategic partnerships with winemakers and a focus on direct-to-consumer sales enable Naked Wines to maintain competitive pricing and a unique value proposition in the wine retail industry.

Naked Wines plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
Breakdown
Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021Mar 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
290.41M354.05M350.26M340.23M202.91M
Gross Profit
109.53M138.05M141.72M135.49M77.56M
EBIT
-11.83M-14.26M1.90M-11.68M-4.87M
EBITDA
-10.28M-8.77M6.54M-5.27M707.00K
Net Income Common Stockholders
-20.84M-17.41M2.38M-10.04M8.15M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
31.85M39.50M39.85M85.15M54.74M
Total Assets
201.73M251.89M247.53M221.07M191.63M
Total Debt
15.92M35.02M3.60M2.91M5.45M
Net Debt
-15.93M-4.46M-36.24M-82.24M-49.29M
Total Liabilities
124.97M153.21M137.65M117.70M78.05M
Stockholders Equity
76.77M98.68M109.88M103.36M113.58M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
2.17M-33.48M-45.05M30.93M20.52M
Operating Cash Flow
3.31M-32.00M-43.12M33.60M21.63M
Investing Cash Flow
7.92M4.89M-1.44M-982.00K60.22M
Financing Cash Flow
-18.74M26.42M-951.00K-1.07M-34.31M

Naked Wines plc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price63.80
Price Trends
50DMA
51.16
Positive
100DMA
52.77
Positive
200DMA
54.91
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
4.25
Negative
RSI
66.11
Neutral
STOCH
67.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:WINE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 63.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.72, above the 50-day MA of 51.16, and above the 200-day MA of 54.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:WINE.

Naked Wines plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
£26.03B23.1110.18%3.31%
GBBKG
72
Outperform
£3.62B9.9911.17%1.89%0.39%-17.64%
GBSGE
71
Outperform
£12.48B39.4329.55%1.62%6.78%55.05%
GBMAB
68
Neutral
£1.30B8.785.81%4.27%
GBJDW
64
Neutral
£693.95M14.6512.15%2.02%5.74%-16.78%
63
Neutral
$20.85B13.27-10.88%7.48%1.13%11.50%
56
Neutral
£47.21M-27.15%-15.67%45.17%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:WINE
Naked Wines plc
63.80
-1.20
-1.85%
GB:BKG
The Berkeley Group Holdings
3,624.00
-919.48
-20.24%
GB:SGE
Sage Group plc
1,257.50
30.98
2.53%
GB:MAB
Mitchells & Butlers
220.00
-20.80
-8.64%
GB:TSCO
Tesco plc
388.70
118.93
44.09%
GB:JDW
J D Wetherspoon
580.00
-178.87
-23.57%

Naked Wines plc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Dec 10, 2024 | % Change Since: 11.54% | Next Earnings Date: Jun 25, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a company that is managing its financial challenges well, with strong improvements in cash flow and customer engagement. However, significant challenges remain, including increased customer acquisition costs and inventory liquidation. The company is optimistic about its strategic initiatives and future prospects.
Highlights
Strong Cash Position
Cash is up GBP 20 million compared to the previous year, indicating significant improvements in cash flow.
Engaged Membership Base
Core members, who have been with the company for over 2 years, now account for 74% of revenues, up from 67% last year, with retention rates improving to 79%.
Improved Customer Engagement
The company reported a 50% improvement in engagement with the new rating system and a 3 percentage point increase in immature retention.
Positive Results from New Channels
The company is seeing promising results from new marketing channels such as PR and content creators, with a CAC under GBP 50 for some tactics.
Lowlights
Decline in Revenue
Revenue declined as expected, reflecting shifts in membership and market dynamics.
Increased Customer Acquisition Costs
Customer acquisition costs increased significantly due to a decline in the effectiveness of voucher mechanics, impacting payback.
Liquidation Costs and Inventory Challenges
The company faced GBP 3.7 million in liquidation costs and continues to deal with excess U.S. stock of over GBP 30 million.
Impact of Duty Changes
Significant duty changes in the U.K. market are expected to have an inflationary impact, adding 73p to a 14% strength wine.
Company Guidance
During the call, Naked Wines provided detailed guidance on their financial and strategic performance for the first half of Fiscal Year 2025. Revenue was down, aligning with expectations and reflecting membership movement. G&A expenses decreased by nearly GBP 3 million due to a savings program initiated in FY '24, while a GBP 400,000 one-off LTIP charge was noted. Notably, cash flow improved significantly, with cash up by GBP 20 million from the previous year, driven largely by inventory management. The core membership, representing 74% of revenues, showed high retention rates, contributing approximately GBP 46 million in annual profit. The company is focused on optimizing customer acquisition costs, with promising results from new channels, reducing CAC in the U.K. to under GBP 50 for certain tactics. They also reported a 50% improvement in engagement due to a revamped rating system. The guidance reiterated a commitment to maintaining robust cash flow and profitability, with plans to further enhance value creation and efficiencies, particularly in marketing and fulfillment, while monitoring potential excess cash for shareholder value activities like share buybacks. The company anticipates FY '25 performance to align with current guidance.

Naked Wines plc Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Naked Wines PLC Announces Major Holdings Change
Neutral
Mar 4, 2025

Naked Wines PLC has announced a change in its major holdings, with Chapters Group AG, based in Hamburg, Germany, acquiring a 5.17% voting rights stake in the company. This acquisition marks a significant shift in the ownership structure of Naked Wines, potentially impacting its strategic direction and market positioning.

Business Operations and Strategy
Naked Wines Announces Strategy Event and Investor Presentation
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

Naked Wines plc has announced a Strategy Event scheduled for March 27, 2025, in London, aimed at institutional investors and analysts, where they will discuss strategic initiatives and performance reviews. Additionally, the company will host a live presentation for all investors on March 28, 2025, providing an opportunity for shareholders to engage with the leadership and gain insights into the company’s future plans.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Naked Wines Reports Solid Peak Season Performance Amid Strategic Improvements
Positive
Jan 29, 2025

Naked Wines plc reported a solid peak season trading performance, aligning with its full-year expectations. Despite a decrease in revenue, key performance indicators improved, including member retention and revenue per member, supported by strategic initiatives and testing plans. The company recorded a significant increase in net cash and continued efforts to streamline inventory, contributing to cash generation. Naked Wines plans to provide a comprehensive update on strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing shareholder value before the fiscal year ends.

Business Operations and Strategy
Naked Wines Sees Shift in Major Shareholder Influence
Neutral
Jan 27, 2025

Naked Wines PLC announced a change in its major holdings, with Kapitalforeningen Wealth Invest acquiring additional voting rights, resulting in a total holding of 8.03%. This adjustment signifies a notable shift in shareholder influence, potentially impacting company decisions and reflecting investor confidence in Naked Wines’ business strategy and market positioning.

Naked Wines PLC: Major Holdings Update by Monega Kapitalanlagegesellschaft
Jan 7, 2025

Naked Wines PLC has received a notification regarding a major holding update from Monega Kapitalanlagegesellschaft mbH, a Cologne-based investment company. The notification indicates that Monega Kapitalanlagegesellschaft mbH has crossed the threshold of 12% voting rights in Naked Wines as of January 2, 2025, reflecting a significant stake in the company.

Naked Wines Sees Major Shareholding Change Following Fund Merger
Dec 31, 2024

Naked Wines plc has notified a change in its major holdings due to a merger of funds. The notification indicates that Investmentaktiengesellschaft für langfristige Investoren TGV, based in Bonn, Germany, has adjusted its holdings, resulting in a decrease of voting rights from 12% to 0%. This change may impact the company’s shareholder structure and influence its governance dynamics.

Naked Wines Reports Strategic Progress Amid Revenue Decline
Dec 10, 2024

Naked Wines plc reported a 15% decline in revenue for the half-year ending September 2024, with strategic initiatives aimed at customer retention and acquisition showing progress despite challenges. The company has improved its financial stability, with net cash rising significantly, and is focusing on enhancing customer engagement and optimizing its inventory management. The appointment of a new CFO and strategic testing are expected to support growth and profitability going forward.

Naked Wines Sees Increase in Key Shareholder Voting Rights
Dec 5, 2024

Naked Wines plc has announced that Investmentaktiengesellschaft für langfristige Investoren TGV has increased its voting rights in the company from 11% to 12%, now holding over 8.8 million shares. This development underscores a growing interest in Naked Wines, potentially indicating confidence in the company’s future performance. Investors in the stock market may find this strategic move noteworthy as it signals potential shifts in shareholder influence.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.