Mondi plc (MNDI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £5.06B
• Dividend Yield: 5.22%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.42M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: -1.55%
• EPS Growth: -65.03%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 22,473
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
• EPS (TTM): 0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 441,412,540
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,300,410
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,417,271
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.88
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 10.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: 1,323.33p
• Price Target Upside: 13.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

Mondi plc's stock score reflects a mixed outlook. Financial performance is stable but has areas of concern, particularly in cash flow and declining margins. Technical analysis suggests weak momentum, though corporate events indicate strategic expansion and shareholder-friendly actions. The high valuation is somewhat offset by a strong dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Future Financial Performance

Mondi expects sequentially higher Q4 EBITDA from a combination of seasonally stronger demand and considerably less costly maintenance activity.

Growth Projections

Underlying earnings momentum is accelerating in H2 and capital projects should add €100m to EBITDA in 2025 and again in 2026.

Strategic Acquisition

Mondi's acquisition of Schumacher is expected to strengthen Mondi's corrugated footprint in Europe and be highly value accretive over time.

Negative Factors

Market Conditions

Trading conditions remain muted, as expected.

Price Target Adjustment

Near term weaker earnings and higher indebtedness cause analysts to lower the price target to 1,815p from 1,933p.

Recent Financial Performance

Mondi hit an unexpected speed bump in Q3, delivering underlying EBITDA significantly lower than expectations due to high maintenance activity and forestry fair value losses.

Mondi plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mondi plc engages in the manufacture and sale of packaging and paper products in Africa, Western Europe, Emerging Europe, Russia, North America, South America, Asia, and Australia. It operates in Corrugated Packaging, Flexible Packaging, Engineered Materials, and Uncoated Fine Paper segments. The company offers flexible packaging, bags, and pouches; personal care components; release liners; functional films; corrugated solutions; industrial bags; barrier coatings; specialty Kraft and sack Kraft papers; containerboards; and office and professional printing papers. It serves customers in the agriculture, automotive, building and construction, chemicals and dangerous goods, food and beverages, graphic and photographic, home and personal care, medical and pharmaceutical, office and professional printing, paper and packaging converting, pet care, retail and e-commerce, and shipping and transport industries. Mondi plc was founded in 1967 and is based in Weybridge, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Mondi plc generates revenue primarily through the manufacturing and sale of packaging and paper products. The company is vertically integrated across the packaging and paper value chain, from managing forests and producing pulp and paper to developing and manufacturing effective industrial and consumer packaging solutions. Key revenue streams include the sale of corrugated packaging, flexible packaging, and uncoated fine paper to businesses in sectors such as food and beverage, personal care, industrial products, and e-commerce. Additionally, Mondi has strategic partnerships with major global brands and emphasizes sustainability, which enhances its market position and attracts environmentally conscious customers. The company's earnings are also supported by its focus on operational efficiency, cost management, and investments in innovation to meet the evolving demands of the market.

Mondi plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mondi plc presents a mixed financial picture. The income statement has a strong gross profit margin but declining net profit and EBIT margins. The balance sheet is stable yet shows declining stockholders' equity and a fluctuating return on equity. Cash flow concerns arise from negative free cash flow and reduced operating cash flow, suggesting potential liquidity pressures.

Income Statement

Mondi plc's income statement shows mixed performance. The gross profit margin has been relatively strong, but there is a concerning trend of declining net profit margins and EBIT margins over recent years. Revenue growth has been inconsistent with recent declines, which could indicate challenges in maintaining market position or pricing power.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Mondi plc is relatively stable with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio. However, the decline in stockholders' equity over the last year and a reduction in the equity ratio raise concerns about long-term financial health. The return on equity has also seen significant fluctuations, indicating potential volatility in shareholder returns.

Cash Flow

Mondi plc's cash flow statement highlights some challenges. Free cash flow has turned negative in the most recent period, and there has been a significant decrease in operating cash flow compared to previous years. These trends suggest potential liquidity pressures and a need for careful cash management to support future operations and investments.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
7.19B	7.42B	7.33B	8.90B	6.97B	6.66B
	Gross Profit
2.85B	3.08B	2.74B	3.43B	2.76B	2.98B
	EBIT
497.00M	456.00M	763.00M	1.26B	786.00M	891.00M
	EBITDA
890.00M	918.00M	1.21B	2.11B	1.16B	1.30B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
392.00M	218.00M	-153.00M	1.45B	543.00M	582.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.61B	278.00M	1.61B	1.07B	473.00M	383.00M
	Total Assets
9.96B	9.34B	9.96B	10.85B	9.26B	8.37B
	Total Debt
2.02B	2.02B	2.02B	2.07B	2.23B	2.18B
	Net Debt
427.00M	1.74B	427.00M	1.00B	1.75B	1.80B
	Total Liabilities
3.87B	3.99B	3.87B	4.59B	4.37B	3.98B
	Stockholders Equity
5.66B	4.86B	5.66B	5.79B	4.50B	4.00B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
72.00M	-143.00M	465.00M	891.00M	624.00M	645.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.04B	851.00M	1.36B	1.45B	1.15B	1.32B
	Investing Cash Flow
-527.00M	-936.00M	-482.00M	32.00M	-670.00M	-675.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.25B	-1.23B	-541.00M	-572.00M	-372.00M	-268.00M

Mondi plc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1164.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:MNDI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1164.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1229.67, below the 50-day MA of 1241.68, and below the 200-day MA of 1320.59, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -20.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.71 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:MNDI.

Mondi plc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSON	73 Outperform	£8.09B	19.06	10.83%	1.95%	-3.32%	20.38%
RTO	67 Neutral	£8.73B	28.54	7.38%	2.62%	1.13%	-19.48%
BMS	67 Neutral	£74.37M	13.45	6.29%	5.87%	-2.90%	―
MNDI	60 Neutral	£5.06B	27.61	4.17%	5.22%	-1.55%	-65.03%
Sector *	47 Neutral	$2.64B	-3.21	-21.68%	3.30%	4.19%	-30.23%

Mondi plc Corporate Events

Mondi Expands Western European Presence with Key Acquisition

Mondi plc has completed the acquisition of the Western Europe Packaging Assets of Schumacher Packaging, significantly expanding its footprint in Western Europe. This acquisition enhances Mondi’s corrugated packaging business by adding over 1 billion square meters of capacity and integrating state-of-the-art facilities in Germany. The move is expected to bolster Mondi’s eCommerce and FMCG offerings, presenting opportunities to introduce sustainable packaging solutions to a broader customer base.

Mondi plc Announces Change in Major Shareholder Voting Rights

Mondi plc has announced a change in its major shareholders, with Coronation Fund Managers increasing their voting rights to 7.021019% as of March 20, 2025. This adjustment in shareholder composition could influence Mondi’s strategic decisions and impact its market positioning, reflecting potential shifts in stakeholder influence.

Mondi plc Directors Participate in Share Incentive Plan

Mondi plc announced transactions related to its Share Incentive Plan (SIP) on March 7, 2025, involving directors Andrew King and Mike Powell. The SIP allows UK employees to purchase ordinary shares through salary deductions and receive free matching shares. The transactions, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, involved acquiring shares at a market price of £12.8729, with half of the shares acquired for nil consideration. This initiative reflects Mondi’s commitment to employee engagement and aligns with its strategic goals of enhancing stakeholder value.

Mondi plc Releases 2024 Integrated and Sustainable Development Reports

Mondi plc has published its 2024 Integrated Report, Sustainable Development Report, and Notice of Annual General Meeting, confirming no material changes from its preliminary financial results. The reports highlight Mondi’s commitment to sustainability and provide insights into its performance and strategic direction. The upcoming Annual General Meeting is scheduled for May 8, 2025, with provisions for shareholder participation via webinar, reflecting Mondi’s focus on transparency and stakeholder engagement.

Mondi Group Proposes Final Dividend for 2024

Mondi Group has announced a proposed final dividend of 46.67 euro cents per ordinary share for the year ending December 31, 2024, pending shareholder approval at the upcoming annual general meeting. The dividend, payable on May 16, 2025, will be distributed in euro, with UK shareholders receiving it in sterling and South African shareholders in rand cents, subject to currency conversion and tax considerations. This announcement reflects Mondi’s commitment to returning value to shareholders while navigating the complexities of international tax and currency exchange considerations.

Mondi plc Announces Change in Major Shareholding

Mondi plc has announced a change in major interests regarding its shares, with Coronation Fund Managers acquiring or disposing of voting rights. As of February 13, 2025, Coronation holds 6.917202% of voting rights in Mondi, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous holding of 7.001328%. This adjustment in shareholding may impact the company’s future voting dynamics and stakeholder interests.

Mondi plc Directors Participate in Share Incentive Plan

Mondi plc announced transactions related to its Share Incentive Plan, involving directors Andrew King and Mike Powell, who acquired ordinary shares through the plan. The employee share scheme allows UK employees to purchase company shares with salary deductions and receive additional matching shares at no cost, reflecting a commitment to employee investment and stakeholder involvement.

Mondi plc Announces Director Share Transactions via SIP

Mondi plc has announced transactions related to its Share Incentive Plan (SIP), which allows UK employees to purchase ordinary shares through salary deductions and receive free matching shares. The recent transactions involved acquisitions by the company’s Group CEO, Andrew King, and Group CFO, Mike Powell, which were conducted at the London Stock Exchange. This initiative reflects Mondi’s strategy to incentivize employee ownership and align interests with shareholders.

Mondi plc Announces Change in Shareholding by Coronation Fund Managers

Mondi plc has announced that Coronation Fund Managers, based in Cape Town, South Africa, has acquired a significant portion of voting rights in the company. As of January 6, 2025, Coronation Fund Managers holds 6.981975% of the voting rights, slightly down from a previous position of 7.024810%. This change in shareholding could potentially influence Mondi plc’s strategic decisions and stakeholder dynamics.