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Firstgroup plc (GB:FGP)
:FGP

Firstgroup (FGP) AI Stock Analysis

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GBFirstgroup
(LSE:FGP)
58Neutral
FirstGroup shows resilience through positive cash flows and strategic corporate actions like acquisitions and buybacks. However, the company faces profitability challenges and high financial leverage. While the stock is reasonably valued with a decent dividend yield, technical indicators point to a neutral market position. Overall, the company's strategic initiatives and valuation offer potential, but financial performance concerns weigh on its immediate outlook.

Firstgroup (FGP) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Firstgroup Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFirstGroup plc is a leading transport operator in the United Kingdom and North America. The company operates through two primary sectors: First Bus and First Rail. First Bus is one of the largest bus operators in the UK, providing extensive local bus services across the country. First Rail operates multiple rail franchises and open access operations in the UK, delivering passenger rail services across various regions. The company is committed to providing safe, reliable, and sustainable transport solutions to millions of passengers annually.
How the Company Makes MoneyFirstGroup generates revenue primarily through its transport services, which include bus and rail operations. In the First Bus sector, revenue is earned from fare collection from passengers, as well as government contracts and subsidies aimed at maintaining essential public transport services. The First Rail sector's income comes from a combination of passenger ticket sales, government franchise payments, and performance-related bonuses. Additionally, FirstGroup leverages strategic partnerships with local authorities and commercial entities to enhance service offerings and maintain financial sustainability. The company's earnings are also influenced by factors such as ridership levels, operational efficiency, and regulatory changes in the transport industry.

Firstgroup Financial Statement Overview

Summary
FirstGroup faces challenges in revenue growth and profitability, as reflected in the negative net income and high leverage. Despite these challenges, the company maintains positive cash flows, suggesting operational resilience. However, addressing profitability and managing debt levels will be crucial for financial stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The company's revenue has experienced a slight decline from the previous year, indicating challenges in maintaining growth. Gross profit margin stands at a healthy level, but the net profit margin is negative due to a net loss, which is concerning. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are modest, suggesting limited profitability from core operations.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, which implies significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative, reflecting the net loss. However, the equity ratio is reasonable, indicating a fair proportion of equity financing.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The company demonstrates positive free cash flow and a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio, despite the net loss. This indicates efficient cash flow management and potential for improvement if profitability returns. However, free cash flow has decreased compared to the previous year.
Breakdown
Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021Mar 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
4.72B4.75B4.59B4.32B4.64B
Gross Profit
2.02B2.24B2.12B2.04B1.80B
EBIT
46.50M7.50M-57.50M-17.10M-103.20M
EBITDA
656.20M896.70M863.60M857.30M398.90M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-15.90M87.10M636.40M78.40M-327.20M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
496.50M791.40M787.70M1.44B968.90M
Total Assets
3.81B4.41B3.83B8.29B8.44B
Total Debt
1.63B2.07B1.41B3.52B4.28B
Net Debt
1.13B1.28B626.10M2.08B3.31B
Total Liabilities
3.17B3.66B2.95B7.14B7.27B
Stockholders Equity
633.30M740.20M876.60M1.18B1.21B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
324.00M402.30M-184.80M785.80M628.80M
Operating Cash Flow
543.30M580.20M66.80M1.21B959.80M
Investing Cash Flow
-10.20M73.00M2.08B-303.00M-306.10M
Financing Cash Flow
-776.30M-640.90M-2.89B-326.90M-481.00M

Firstgroup Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price171.90
Price Trends
50DMA
162.55
Positive
100DMA
155.20
Positive
200DMA
155.60
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.52
Negative
RSI
64.25
Neutral
STOCH
72.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FGP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 171.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 163.62, above the 50-day MA of 162.55, and above the 200-day MA of 155.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.52 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:FGP.

Firstgroup Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
62
Neutral
$8.11B13.341.17%3.02%4.16%-15.14%
GBFGP
58
Neutral
£990.77M11.2314.51%3.29%2.16%243.88%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:FGP
Firstgroup
171.90
15.94
10.22%
GB:DLG
Direct Line Insurance
276.00
60.58
28.12%

Firstgroup Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
BlackRock Adjusts Holdings in FirstGroup PLC
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

FirstGroup PLC, a UK-based company, has experienced a change in its shareholder structure as BlackRock, Inc., a major investment management firm, has adjusted its voting rights in the company. BlackRock’s total voting rights in FirstGroup now stand at 5.78%, following a slight increase from previous holdings. This adjustment in holdings could potentially influence FirstGroup’s strategic decisions and impact its market positioning.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Announces Total Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced its total voting rights and capital structure as of 28 February 2025. The company has a total of 750,695,015 ordinary shares, with 157,518,775 held in treasury, resulting in 593,176,240 voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, impacting how they manage their stakes in the company.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
FirstGroup Enters London Bus Market with RATP Acquisition
Positive
Feb 28, 2025

FirstGroup plc has completed the acquisition of RATP Dev Transit London Limited, marking its entry into the London bus market with a significant presence. This acquisition aligns with FirstGroup’s strategy to diversify and grow its revenue base, as RATP London holds a 12% market share in London and operates 83 Transport for London route contracts. The acquisition is expected to enhance FirstGroup’s market position and financial performance, with anticipated annual revenues of £300-350 million and operating margins of 6-7%.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
FirstGroup Director Jane Lodge Joins Morgan Advanced Materials
Positive
Feb 28, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced that Jane Lodge, a Non-Executive Director of the company, will also take on a role as a Non-Executive Director at Morgan Advanced Materials PLC starting June 1, 2025. This appointment may enhance FirstGroup’s strategic insights and industry connections, potentially benefiting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
BlackRock Adjusts Stake in FirstGroup PLC
Neutral
Feb 27, 2025

FirstGroup PLC, a UK-based company, has announced a change in its shareholder structure due to BlackRock, Inc.’s acquisition or disposal of voting rights. BlackRock’s current position holds 5.77% of the voting rights in FirstGroup, slightly down from a previous 5.8%. This adjustment in BlackRock’s holdings reflects a minor shift in investor confidence or strategy and may influence FirstGroup’s market perception and stakeholder interests.

Business Operations and Strategy
BlackRock Boosts Stake in FirstGroup to 5.81%
Neutral
Feb 20, 2025

FirstGroup PLC has announced a change in the ownership of its voting rights, with BlackRock, Inc. increasing its stake to 5.81%, as of February 19, 2025. This development slightly raises BlackRock’s influence on FirstGroup’s strategic decisions, reflecting a potential shift in stakeholder dynamics and potential impacts on the company’s future governance and policy direction.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup’s CFO Acquires Shares Under Incentive Plan
Neutral
Feb 14, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced the purchase of 92 ordinary shares by Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, as part of the Share Incentive Plan. This transaction, which took place on 10 February 2025 at a price of £1.6297 per share, was conducted in compliance with the Market Abuse Regulation. This move reflects the company’s adherence to regulatory requirements and potentially signals confidence in its financial health and future performance.

Stock Buyback
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback, Acquires 409,118 Shares
Neutral
Feb 14, 2025

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback transaction, purchasing 409,118 of its ordinary shares at a weighted average price of 160.26 pence per share. This move, part of a previously announced buyback program, could impact the company’s equity structure and shareholder value, as it holds the purchased shares in treasury with the possibility of cancellation in the future.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback as Part of Strategic Program
Neutral
Feb 12, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced a share buyback transaction, purchasing 375,859 of its ordinary shares at a weighted average price of 161.68 pence per share. This move is part of the company’s previously announced buyback program and follows the company’s strategy to hold these shares as treasury shares, with the possibility of canceling them in the future. This transaction affects the total voting rights in the company, which now stands at 599,012,897, providing shareholders with updated figures for regulatory compliance.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
FirstGroup Advances £50m Share Buyback Programme
Positive
Feb 10, 2025

FirstGroup plc has completed the first tranche of its £50 million on-market share buyback programme, purchasing 15,703,358 ordinary shares. The second tranche, managed by Panmure Liberum Limited, has commenced with up to £25 million allocated for further buybacks, signifying FirstGroup’s strategic focus on enhancing shareholder value.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup PLC Reports Major Shareholding Adjustment by BlackRock
Neutral
Feb 6, 2025

FirstGroup PLC announced a notification of major holdings due to changes in voting rights held by BlackRock, Inc., a significant stakeholder. The notification indicates BlackRock now holds 5.78% of the voting rights, a slight decrease from a previous position of 5.83%. This adjustment in holdings might influence FirstGroup’s shareholder dynamics and could impact future decision-making processes within the company.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Announces Total Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Feb 3, 2025

FirstGroup plc, a leading transport operator, has announced its current total voting rights and capital structure, as per regulatory requirements. As of January 31, 2025, the company has 750,695,015 ordinary shares, with 149,635,862 held in treasury, resulting in 601,059,153 voting rights available for shareholders. This figure is crucial for stakeholders to assess their shareholding percentage and any corresponding obligations under the FCA’s regulations.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup PLC Reports Update on Voting Rights
Neutral
Jan 31, 2025

FirstGroup PLC announced a change in the voting rights attached to its shares, following an acquisition or disposal by Equiniti Trust (Jersey) Limited, a trustee of the FirstGroup plc Employee Benefit Trust. The change involves a slight decrease in the percentage of voting rights from 3.0061% to 3.0029%, representing 18,118,584 voting rights. This update reflects the company’s ongoing adjustments in its shareholder structure and may influence stakeholder perceptions regarding its governance and operational strategies.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
BlackRock Increases Stake in FirstGroup PLC
Neutral
Jan 28, 2025

BlackRock, Inc., a major shareholder of FirstGroup PLC, has increased its holding to 5.83% of the total voting rights, as notified on January 28, 2025. This change, initiated by client instruction for decision-making on voting rights, reflects a slight increase from the previous position, potentially impacting the company’s governance and voting outcomes.

M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
BlackRock Adjusts Voting Rights in FirstGroup PLC
Neutral
Jan 24, 2025

FirstGroup PLC has announced a change in its voting rights structure due to an acquisition or disposal of voting rights by BlackRock, Inc. As of January 23, 2025, BlackRock holds 5.75% of the voting rights in FirstGroup, slightly decreased from a previous 5.76%. This adjustment in ownership may influence FirstGroup’s decision-making and could have implications for stakeholders, particularly regarding corporate governance matters.

Business Operations and Strategy
BlackRock Increases Stake in Firstgroup PLC
Positive
Jan 23, 2025

BlackRock, Inc. has increased its voting rights in Firstgroup PLC to 5.76%, up from a previous 5%, signifying a strategic move in its investment portfolio. This adjustment could influence Firstgroup’s shareholder dynamics and potentially impact decision-making within the company, reflecting BlackRock’s confidence in the company’s market position.

FirstGroup PLC Reports Change in Voting Rights
Jan 16, 2025

FirstGroup PLC has announced a change in its voting rights due to an acquisition or disposal of shares. Equiniti Trust (Jersey) Limited, acting as a trustee for the FirstGroup Employee Benefit Trust, now holds 2.9933% of the voting rights, a slight decrease from the previous 3.0011%. This adjustment in voting rights may influence the company’s governance and shareholder dynamics, impacting stakeholder decisions moving forward.

FirstGroup Announces Shift in Voting Rights
Jan 16, 2025

FirstGroup plc, a UK-based issuer, has announced a change in its voting rights. Equiniti Trust (Jersey) Limited, acting as trustee of the FirstGroup plc Employee Benefit Trust, has crossed the threshold of 3.0011% in voting rights, holding a total of 18,237,640 voting rights as of January 8, 2025. This notification highlights a significant shift in the company’s voting structure, which could impact its governance and stakeholder influence.

FirstGroup CFO Participates in Share Incentive Plan
Jan 14, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced a share purchase by Ryan Mangold, Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. This purchase, involving 95 ordinary shares at a price of £1.5813 each, reflects routine shareholding adjustments and aligns with regulatory compliance, though it has limited immediate impact on the company’s operations or market positioning.

Ameriprise Financial Increases Stake in Firstgroup PLC
Jan 14, 2025

Firstgroup PLC, a UK-based company, has seen a change in its major shareholding as Ameriprise Financial, Inc., an American financial services company, increased its voting rights from 11.998% to 12.032%. This adjustment in holdings indicates a slight increase in Ameriprise’s influence within Firstgroup, which may affect company decisions and strategic direction, potentially impacting stakeholders.

FirstGroup Directors Acquire Shares Through Dividend Reinvestment
Jan 10, 2025

FirstGroup plc announced that on 8 January 2025, two of its directors, Ryan Mangold and Anthony Green, acquired shares in the company. This acquisition was a result of reinvesting the interim dividend paid by the company on 31 December 2024. Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, acquired 91 shares, while Anthony Green, an Employee Director, acquired 18 shares, with transactions conducted on the London Stock Exchange.

FirstGroup Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Jan 2, 2025

FirstGroup plc has announced its total voting rights and capital structure as of December 31, 2024, in compliance with the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules. The company has 750,695,015 ordinary shares, with 142,990,158 held in treasury, resulting in 607,704,857 voting rights available to shareholders. This figure is crucial for shareholders to calculate their voting rights percentage and make necessary notifications under FCA regulations.

FirstGroup Executive Share Purchase Under SIP
Dec 12, 2024

FirstGroup plc has announced a transaction involving the purchase of 93 ordinary shares by Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning executive interests with shareholder value, and adheres to the compliance requirements of the Market Abuse Regulation.

FirstGroup Announces Share Buyback Transaction
Dec 12, 2024

FirstGroup plc announced the repurchase of 7,036 ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback programme, maintaining a weighted average price of 164 pence per share. This transaction increases FirstGroup’s treasury holdings to 140,504,216 shares, with the total number of voting rights in issue standing at 610,190,799, impacting shareholder calculations under FCA rules.

FirstGroup’s Strategic Share Buyback Initiative
Dec 10, 2024

FirstGroup has executed a share buyback, purchasing 383,664 ordinary shares at an average price of 155.18 pence each. The company now holds over 140 million shares in treasury, with a total of 610 million shares outstanding for voting rights. This strategic move could influence FirstGroup’s stock value and shareholder engagement.

FirstGroup Expands Rail Services with New Train Fleet
Dec 6, 2024

FirstGroup has secured a lease agreement with Angel Trains and Hitachi to acquire 14 new trains for approximately £500 million, aiming to expand its open access rail services including new routes and increased capacity. The trains, to be manufactured in County Durham, will support FirstGroup’s strategic growth while also benefiting local manufacturing and jobs. This significant investment highlights FirstGroup’s commitment to providing competitive and environmentally friendly travel options in the UK rail market.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.