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BP plc (GB:BP.A)
LSE:BP.A
UK Market

BP plc (BP.A) AI Stock Analysis

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GBBP plc
(LSE:BP.A)
74Outperform
BP plc's stock is bolstered by strong technical momentum and strategic achievements highlighted in the earnings call, including increased production and shareholder returns. However, declining financial performance and valuation uncertainties moderate the overall outlook.

BP plc (BP.A) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

BP plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBP plc, formerly known as British Petroleum, is a multinational oil and gas company headquartered in London, United Kingdom. It operates in all areas of the energy sector, including exploration and production, refining, distribution and marketing, petrochemicals, power generation, and trading. BP is one of the world's seven oil and gas 'supermajors,' and it is involved in the renewable energy sector through investments in wind and solar power, biofuels, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure.
How the Company Makes MoneyBP plc generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of oil and natural gas. The company's upstream segment focuses on the discovery and extraction of crude oil and natural gas, which are then sold to refiners and other customers. Additionally, BP's downstream operations refine crude oil into various petroleum products and distribute these products globally. BP also earns money through its trading division, which buys and sells oil, natural gas, and other commodities. Furthermore, the company is expanding its low-carbon energy portfolio, investing in renewable energy sources and technologies, contributing to its revenue diversification. Key factors influencing BP's earnings include crude oil prices, refining margins, and global energy demand, as well as strategic partnerships and joint ventures across different regions.

BP plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
BP plc faces challenges with declining revenues and profitability, as shown by decreasing margins and net income. While the balance sheet shows increased leverage, cash flow generation remains strong, helping to offset some profit pressures. The company needs to address revenue growth and profit margins to improve financial health.
Income Statement
65
Positive
BP plc's revenue decreased by 10% in 2024 compared to 2023, indicating a declining trend. The gross profit margin dropped to 16% from 23% in the previous year, reflecting reduced profitability. Net profit margin also fell to 0.2% from 7.3%, highlighting significant pressure on earnings. The absence of EBIT and reduced EBITDA margin from 20.7% to 15.2% further indicate operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
BP plc’s debt-to-equity ratio increased to 1.21 from 0.90, indicating higher leverage and potential risk. However, the equity ratio remains relatively stable at 21% compared to 25% last year, suggesting a balanced asset financing structure. The ROE dropped significantly to 0.6% from 21.7%, highlighting a decrease in shareholder returns.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Free cash flow fell by 32.4% in 2024, yet BP plc maintains a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio of 71.6x, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 31.5x, suggesting substantial cash flow coverage despite a decline in free cash flow.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
189.19B210.13B241.39B157.74B105.94B
Gross Profit
30.24B48.07B55.10B22.86B10.18B
EBIT
0.0031.05B44.76B15.09B-346.00M
EBITDA
28.85B43.50B59.47B32.55B14.54B
Net Income Common Stockholders
381.00M15.24B-2.49B7.57B-20.30B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
39.37B28.59B29.77B30.96B29.53B
Total Assets
282.23B280.29B288.12B287.27B267.65B
Total Debt
71.55B63.08B55.49B69.79B81.93B
Net Debt
32.34B35.33B26.30B39.11B52.73B
Total Liabilities
203.91B194.80B205.13B196.83B182.09B
Stockholders Equity
59.25B70.28B67.55B75.46B71.25B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
12.00B17.75B28.86B12.72B-144.00M
Operating Cash Flow
27.30B32.04B40.93B23.61B12.16B
Investing Cash Flow
-13.25B-14.87B-13.71B-5.69B-7.86B
Financing Cash Flow
-7.30B-13.36B-28.02B-18.08B3.96B

BP plc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price140.50
Price Trends
50DMA
134.53
Positive
100DMA
136.68
Positive
200DMA
140.05
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.05
Negative
RSI
73.59
Negative
STOCH
45.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BP.A, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 140.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 138.15, above the 50-day MA of 134.53, and above the 200-day MA of 140.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.59 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:BP.A.

BP plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
£66.56B0.64%
57
Neutral
$8.34B5.35-5.98%7.29%0.20%-69.45%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:BP.A
BP plc
140.50
8.24
6.23%
GB:CNE
Capricorn Energy PLC
255.50
132.36
107.49%
GB:ENQ
Enquest
11.82
-0.63
-5.06%
GB:HBR
Harbour Energy
189.20
-47.78
-20.16%
GB:SHEL
Shell (UK)
2,553.00
154.38
6.44%
GB:TLW
Tullow Oil
13.03
-13.59
-51.05%

BP plc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 11, 2025 | % Change Since: 5.24% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call demonstrated a balance between strategic achievements and operational challenges. While BP made significant progress in portfolio reshaping and strategic initiatives, it faced notable difficulties in refining and biofuels, alongside uncertainties in regulatory impacts.
Highlights
Strategic Progress and Portfolio Reshaping
BP made significant strategic progress in 2024, including 10 new FIDs, new access to Iraq and India, divesting tail assets, and forming a joint venture with JERA Nex bp. They also acquired full ownership of bp bioenergy and Lightsource bp.
Upstream Production Increase
Upstream production was around 2.36 million barrels per day, up 2% year-over-year with plant reliability above 95%.
Dividend and Share Buybacks
BP grew its dividend per share by 10% and announced $7 billion in share buybacks, including $1.75 billion announced on the call.
Trading Performance
The trading segment maintained a 4% uplift to group ROACE, sustaining a 5-year track record despite market volatility.
Archaea Performance Improvement
Archaea continues to improve with 12 new plants established in the year, showing competitive performance in the market.
Lowlights
Refining Challenges
BP faced a difficult year in refining due to a widening outage in Q1, challenging margin environments, and weaker biofuels margins.
Biofuels and Trucking Recession Impact
BP was impacted by weaker biofuels margins and the trucking recession, affecting TravelCenters of America's recovery.
Uncertainty in U.S. Tariffs on Canadian Crude
The impact of U.S. tariffs on Canadian crude remains uncertain, affecting Whiting's refining margins and posing challenges in predicting future performance.
Company Guidance
The BP Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results Call for 2024 highlighted several key metrics and strategic movements. BP's upstream production reached approximately 2.36 million barrels per day, representing a 2% increase with plant reliability exceeding 95%. Despite a challenging year in refining, due to a significant outage in the first quarter at Whiting and a tough margin environment, BP's trading division managed to maintain a 4% return on average capital employed (ROACE) over the past five years. The company announced a 10% increase in dividend per share and $7 billion in share buybacks, including $1.75 billion announced during the call. BP also discussed a reset of its strategy, aiming for improved cash flow, returns, and shareholder value, with further updates expected at the upcoming Capital Markets event.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.