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Aviva PLC (GB:AV.A)
LSE:AV.A
UK Market

Aviva plc (AV.A) AI Stock Analysis

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GB

Aviva plc

(LSE:AV.A)

76Outperform
Aviva plc receives a strong overall score of 76, driven by robust earnings growth and strategic expansion in key markets, as highlighted in the earnings call. Technical analysis indicates upward momentum, though caution is advised due to potential overbought conditions. Financial performance shows stable revenue and strong cash flow management, but profitability challenges remain. The absence of clear valuation metrics adds uncertainty, although strategic initiatives and dividend increases provide a positive outlook.

Aviva plc (AV.A) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Aviva plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAviva plc is a leading multinational insurance company headquartered in the United Kingdom. It operates in the insurance, savings, and investment sectors, offering a wide range of products and services that include life insurance, general insurance, health insurance, and asset management. Aviva serves millions of customers across various markets, primarily focusing on the UK, Ireland, and Canada, with additional operations in Europe and Asia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAviva plc generates revenue primarily through its insurance and investment products. The company earns money from premiums paid by customers for life, health, and general insurance policies. Additionally, Aviva generates income through its asset management services by managing investments on behalf of its clients and earning fees based on the assets under management. The company also benefits from investment returns on its own portfolio. Important partnerships with financial advisors, brokers, and other distribution channels enable Aviva to reach a broad customer base, while regulatory environments and economic conditions significantly influence its financial performance.

Aviva plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Aviva plc exhibits a stable revenue base but faces challenges in profitability and operational efficiency, with fluctuating net income and declining equity returns. Despite these challenges, cash flow management remains robust, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Aviva plc has experienced fluctuating revenue trends over the past few years, with a notable decline in 2024 to £31.76B from £32.92B in 2023. The gross profit margin remains stable as gross profit aligns with total revenue. However, net income has decreased significantly from 2019's £2.55B to 2024's £683M, impacting net profit margins negatively. The EBIT margin has been inconsistent, showing no EBIT in 2024, indicating potential operational challenges. EBITDA margin for 2024 is at 4.99%, down from 7.37% in 2023, reflecting reduced operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Aviva plc maintains a strong equity base with £8.31B in stockholders' equity as of 2024, but it has seen a decline from previous years. The debt-to-equity ratio improved slightly to 0.83 in 2024 from 0.84 in 2023, indicating stable leverage. The equity ratio has decreased to 2.35% in 2024 from 2.67% in 2023, suggesting a heavier reliance on liabilities to finance assets. Return on equity has dropped drastically to 8.22% in 2024, compared to healthier figures in previous years, highlighting reduced profitability for shareholders.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Aviva plc's cash flow statement shows robust free cash flow growth in 2024, increasing operating cash flow to £8.44B and resulting in a free cash flow of £8.27B. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating healthy cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has been inconsistent over the years. The company has managed capital expenditures effectively, maintaining positive free cash flow in 2024 despite recent challenges.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
37.71B31.76B32.92B23.09B31.98B31.08B
Gross Profit
41.89B31.76B33.95B23.09B31.98B31.08B
EBIT
13.01B0.001.03B-1.62B97.00M2.88B
EBITDA
-784.00M1.58B2.43B-2.73B1.36B2.61B
Net Income Common Stockholders
1.33B683.00M1.08B-1.18B416.00M2.06B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
15.93B23.48B17.27B22.50B12.48B16.90B
Total Assets
429.52B353.88B328.84B302.26B343.44B466.52B
Total Debt
9.98B6.89B7.37B8.57B8.42B11.13B
Net Debt
-5.94B-16.59B-9.91B-13.94B-4.06B-5.78B
Total Liabilities
9.17B345.26B319.24B289.86B323.99B445.96B
Stockholders Equity
17.49B8.30B8.79B12.09B19.20B19.55B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-1.26B8.27B-3.08B3.85B3.19B8.91B
Operating Cash Flow
-942.00M8.45B-2.73B3.95B3.30B9.05B
Investing Cash Flow
10.00M162.00M-350.00M11.13B-6.58B-12.70B
Financing Cash Flow
-1.69B-2.49B-1.82B-5.47B-3.91B-339.00M

Aviva plc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price149.50
Price Trends
50DMA
135.55
Positive
100DMA
134.91
Positive
200DMA
135.18
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.57
Negative
RSI
90.12
Negative
STOCH
58.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:AV.A, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 149.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 137.90, above the 50-day MA of 135.55, and above the 200-day MA of 135.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 90.12 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:AV.A.

Aviva plc Risk Analysis

Aviva plc disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aviva plc reported the most risks in the “Macro & Political” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Aviva plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
£14.21B8.22%
64
Neutral
$13.80B10.649.23%4.22%17.66%-7.66%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:AV.A
Aviva plc
149.50
24.39
19.49%
GB:ADM
Admiral
2,996.00
379.21
14.49%
GB:DLG
Direct Line Insurance
274.00
55.38
25.33%
GB:LGEN
Legal & General
244.90
17.19
7.55%
GB:PHNX
Phoenix Group Holdings
510.00
43.79
9.39%
MGPUF
M&G Plc
2.90
-0.08
-2.68%

Aviva plc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 27, 2025 | % Change Since: 8.73% | Next Earnings Date: Aug 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance across multiple segments, with significant growth in operating profit, successful expansion in key markets, and a positive outlook due to strategic acquisitions. However, there were challenges in the Canadian market due to severe weather and softer-than-expected operating assumptions in IWR.
Highlights
Record Growth in Operating Profit
Operating profit was up 20% to nearly £1.8 billion and underlying own funds generation increased by 18% to £1.5 billion.
Successful Expansion in U.K. and Ireland General Insurance
U.K. and Ireland General Insurance premiums grew by 16%, driven by 22% growth in personal lines and 12% in commercial lines.
Strong Performance in Canadian Market
Canada delivered double-digit growth despite challenging weather conditions, with Personal Insurance up 13%.
Increase in Dividend for Shareholders
Final dividend announced at 23.8p per share, with total dividend per share up 7% year-on-year.
Significant Growth in Wealth and Retirement
Wealth assets under management reached nearly £200 billion with continued strong net flows, and retirement saw record bulk purchase annuity volumes.
Proposed Acquisition of Direct Line
The acquisition is expected to create a leader in U.K. personal lines, with £125 million in cost synergies anticipated.
Lowlights
Adverse Impact from Canadian Weather
Canada's combined ratio was negatively affected by severe weather events, marking the worst insured year for Canadian weather on record.
Challenges in IWR Operating Assumptions
Operating assumption changes and experience variances were softer than expected, with lower assumption changes compared to 2023.
Company Guidance
In the call, Aviva provided a comprehensive overview of its fiscal year 2024 performance, highlighting several key metrics. Operating profit increased by 20% to nearly £1.8 billion, and underlying own funds generation rose by 18% to £1.5 billion. The company also reported a total dividend per share increase of 7% year-on-year, announcing a final dividend of 23.8p per share. Aviva's return on equity stood at 13.6% on a Solvency II basis, while its capital position was strong at 203%. The UK and Ireland General Insurance segment experienced a 16% growth in premiums, while Canada delivered double-digit growth despite a challenging catastrophe season. In wealth, assets under management on the adviser platform reached £50 billion, contributing to a total of nearly £200 billion in assets. Additionally, Aviva's planned acquisition of Direct Line is expected to deliver £125 million in cost synergies and unlock further capital benefits, enhancing shareholder distribution.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.