ASOS plc (ASC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £363.80M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 222.83K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.18
• Revenue Growth: -18.15%
• EPS Growth: -30.29%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 3,027
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Retail - Discretionary
• EPS (TTM): -2.84
• Shares Outstanding: 119,357,910
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 158,437
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 222,828
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.13
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 1.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: 409.38p
• Price Target Upside: 34.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

ASOS plc's overall stock score is weighed down by declining revenues, net losses, and high financial leverage, which pose significant risks. While there are positive signs in cash flow improvements and strategic initiatives, the bearish technical indicators and poor valuation metrics further dampen the outlook. Strong shareholder support at the AGM provides some confidence, but the company needs to address its core challenges to improve its financial health and stock performance.

Positive Factors

Future Financial Benefit

The P&L impact of mothballing the Atlanta DC is likely to be broadly neutral in FY25 but is expected to provide a £10-20m annualised benefit from FY26 onwards.

Negative Factors

Inventory Write-off

Another significant £100m inventory write-off is being taken as an 'exceptional' item.

Revenue Performance

ASOS announced a trading update stating that revenue has fallen below guidance.

ASOS plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ASOS is a global e-commerce player focusing on fashion and cosmetics and targeting the youth segment (20-somethings) globally. Of its revenue, 37% comes from its U.K. home market, 31% from other European Union countries, 13% from the United States, 19% from the rest of the world (with the biggest exposure to Russia and Australia). The company ships to 240 countries from its three warehouses located in the U.K., continental Europe, and the United States. It offers over 85 000 products on its website from 950 third-party brands and their own labels (ASOS Design, Collusion). Around 20% of revenue is generated by special-size categories such as tall, petite, curvy, and maternity, where competition tends to be more limited.

How the Company Makes Money

ASOS makes money primarily through the sale of fashion and beauty products via its online platform. The company generates revenue by offering a diverse range of products from third-party brands as well as its own private label. ASOS employs a direct-to-consumer model, allowing customers to browse and purchase items directly from their website and mobile app. Key revenue streams include product sales, which are bolstered by their own-brand offerings that typically yield higher margins. Additionally, ASOS leverages data analytics to optimize pricing, inventory, and marketing strategies, enhancing customer experience and driving sales. The company also benefits from its global reach, shipping to numerous countries worldwide, thus expanding its customer base. Strategic partnerships with various brands and designers, along with collaborations and exclusive product lines, further contribute to ASOS's revenue streams.

ASOS plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Cash Flow

Breakdown
Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.90B	3.54B	3.94B	3.91B	3.26B
	Gross Profit
1.08B	1.39B	1.57B	1.64B	1.43B
	EBIT
-83.50M	-41.70M	-16.20M	193.60M	160.70M
	EBITDA
-153.60M	-79.50M	140.90M	325.80M	278.10M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-338.70M	-223.10M	-30.80M	128.40M	113.30M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
382.90M	353.30M	323.00M	662.70M	407.50M
	Total Assets
2.27B	2.63B	3.00B	2.88B	1.99B
	Total Debt
977.70M	1.00B	856.00M	792.10M	313.10M
	Net Debt
594.80M	648.50M	533.00M	129.40M	-94.40M
	Total Liabilities
1.75B	1.76B	1.98B	1.85B	1.18B
	Stockholders Equity
521.30M	866.70M	1.01B	1.03B	810.30M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
160.30M	-190.60M	-313.50M	52.60M	279.20M
	Operating Cash Flow
196.70M	-12.70M	-130.60M	209.70M	395.80M
	Investing Cash Flow
-133.50M	-177.90M	-182.90M	-443.50M	-116.60M
	Financing Cash Flow
-26.00M	222.70M	-26.30M	489.10M	143.70M

ASOS plc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 305.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ASC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 305.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 363.77, below the 50-day MA of 392.67, and below the 200-day MA of 383.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -20.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 14.12 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.66 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:ASC.

ASOS plc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NXT	77 Outperform	£11.71B	15.02	53.07%	2.13%	12.83%	15.54%
JD	77 Outperform	£4.05B	12.55	21.94%	1.18%	2.85%	61.98%
FRAS	68 Neutral	£2.57B	8.76	20.64%	―	-6.82%	-37.46%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$13.01B	10.45	0.79%	3.53%	1.60%	-22.47%
SAGA	48 Neutral	£174.03M	―	-50.56%	―	15.70%	-119.71%
ASC	45 Neutral	£363.80M	―	-64.97%	―	-18.15%	-30.29%

ASOS plc Corporate Events

ASOS Announces Block Listing for Employee Incentive Schemes

ASOS Plc announced a block listing application for 320,000 new ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange, with an expected admission date of 11 February 2025. Of these, 300,000 shares will be allocated under the ASOS Plc Long-Term Incentive Scheme, while 20,000 shares will be for the ASOS Plc Sharesave Plan. The new shares will be fully paid and rank equally with existing shares, providing a strategic move to support employee incentive programs.

Frasers Group Increases Stake in ASOS to 23.38%

ASOS plc has announced that Frasers Group Plc has crossed a significant threshold in voting rights, now holding a total of 23.38% of total voting rights in ASOS. This change indicates a strategic move by Frasers Group, potentially impacting ASOS’s operational and strategic decisions, reflecting Frasers’ increasing influence and interest in ASOS’s future direction.

ASOS plc Successfully Passes All Resolutions at AGM with Strong Shareholder Support

ASOS plc announced the successful passage of all resolutions at its Annual General Meeting, emphasizing strong shareholder support for the company’s strategic direction and governance. Notably, resolutions on director elections and financial approvals received overwhelming backing, although two resolutions related to share allotment were withdrawn to address shareholder concerns. This outcome reflects ASOS’s commitment to engaging with stakeholders and maintaining strategic flexibility, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder relations positively.

ASOS Withdraws Key Resolutions from AGM Agenda Following Shareholder Feedback

ASOS plc has announced the withdrawal of Resolutions 18 and 19 from the agenda of its upcoming annual general meeting. These resolutions were special resolutions concerning the disapplication of pre-emption rights for the allotment of equity securities for cash, which aligned with the Pre-Emption Group’s 2022 Statement of Principles. The decision to withdraw was made following feedback from some shareholders, although the board believes the flexibility these resolutions would have provided is in the company’s best interest. The withdrawal does not impact the validity of the AGM notice or any votes for the remaining resolutions.

ASOS to Enhance Global Distribution, Boost US Market Efficiency

ASOS plc is set to enhance its global distribution network by reducing its stock levels and consolidating US operations to improve efficiency and profitability. By transitioning US fulfilment to its UK centre and a smaller US site, ASOS aims to offer a broader product range and faster delivery, while mothballing its Atlanta distribution center. These changes are expected to contribute £10-20m to annualized EBITDA from FY26, despite a significant one-time cost in FY25. The company remains optimistic about the US market’s potential for sustainable growth.

Frasers Group Adjusts Voting Rights in ASOS plc

ASOS plc has been notified by Frasers Group Plc regarding a change in its voting rights, following an acquisition or disposal. Frasers Group’s total voting rights in ASOS now stand at 23.897674%, indicating a slight decrease from the previous position. This adjustment in holdings reflects strategic financial maneuvers potentially affecting ASOS’s governance and shareholder dynamics.

ASOS Plc Announces Change in Major Shareholder Holdings

ASOS Plc reported a change in major holdings, with Schroders Plc notifying an acquisition or disposal of voting rights. The notification indicates that Schroders holds 5.049676% of ASOS’s total voting rights, signifying a notable shift in its shareholder structure. This adjustment in shareholding could impact ASOS’s strategic decisions and influence its market positioning.

ASOS plc Reports Major Change in Shareholder Voting Rights

ASOS plc has announced a significant change in its major holdings, as SIH Partners, LLLP, a Delaware-registered entity, has reduced its voting rights from a previous position of 6.910043% to 0%. This update indicates a complete disposal of their voting rights in ASOS, which may impact the company’s shareholder composition and influence within the market.

Frasers Group Increases Stake in ASOS plc

ASOS plc announced a notification of major holdings, as Frasers Group Plc has acquired or disposed of voting rights, now holding 24.22% of ASOS’s voting rights. This acquisition highlights the strategic positioning of Frasers Group within the retail industry, possibly strengthening its influence in ASOS’s corporate decisions, impacting stakeholders and market dynamics.

ASOS plc’s Voting Rights Altered by SIH Partners’ Share Dealings

ASOS plc has seen a change in its voting rights structure following the acquisition or disposal of shares and financial instruments by SIH Partners, LLLP, a Delaware-based entity. The changes have resulted in a slight decrease in the percentage of voting rights held by this entity, with the total voting rights now standing at 6.910043%. This adjustment may impact ASOS’s governance and stakeholder influence, highlighting the dynamic nature of shareholding within the company.

ASOS Aligns Executive Interests with New Share Plans

ASOS Plc has announced that its CEO, José Antonio Ramos Calamonte, and CFO, Dave Murray, have been granted conditional awards under the company’s Deferred Bonus Plan 2022, alongside participation in the ASOS Sharesave Plan 2022. The plan allows employees to buy shares at a discounted rate, with both executives receiving options priced at £2.91 per share. This initiative highlights ASOS’s commitment to aligning executive interests with shareholder value.