Expeditors International (EXPD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.56B
• Dividend Yield: 1.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.77M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: 13.98%
• EPS Growth: 14.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,400
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 61
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 5.72
• Shares Outstanding: 137,756,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,729,094
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,771,244
• PEG Ratio: 1.29
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.51
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 16.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $113.51
• Price Target Upside: 3.26% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

Expeditors International's overall stock score reflects a solid financial performance with strong profitability, low leverage, and robust cash flow generation. While technical indicators suggest mixed signals with some bearish trends, the company's moderate valuation and positive corporate events provide a balanced outlook. The appointment of a new president and operational improvements are likely to strengthen the company's strategic position, supporting future growth.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

The company has demonstrated strong cost control, particularly in purchased transportation and other expenses.

Customer Service

EXPD’s consistent focus on customer service positions the company well to navigate continued supply chain disruptions.

Financial Performance

EXPD reported revenue that was 11% ahead of expectations and EPS of $1.68, up 54% year-on-year.

Negative Factors

Future Estimates

Despite strong trends, estimates remain largely unchanged as the momentum is not expected to continue at the same rate.

Market Visibility

Visibility beyond day-to-day operations remains challenging, with difficulties in predicting global air and ocean supply.

Ocean Freight Rates

Volatility in global freight markets and pricing is expected to continue, posing risks to ocean rates.

Expeditors International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. provides logistics services in the Americas, North Asia, South Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and India. The company offers airfreight services, such as air freight consolidation and forwarding; ocean freight and ocean services, including ocean freight consolidation, direct ocean forwarding, and order management; customs brokerage, intra-continental ground transportation and delivery, and warehousing and distribution services; and customs clearance, purchase order management, vendor consolidation, time-definite transportation services, temperature-controlled transit, cargo insurance, specialized cargo monitoring and tracking, and other supply chain solutions. It also provides optimization, trade compliance, consulting, cargo security, and solutions. In addition, it acts as a freight consolidator or as an agent for the airline, which carries the shipment. Further, the company provides ancillary services that include preparation of shipping and customs documentation, packing, crating, insurance services, negotiation of letters of credit, and the preparation of documentation to comply with local export laws. Its customers include retailing and wholesaling, electronics, technology, and industrial and manufacturing companies. Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

How the Company Makes Money

Expeditors International generates revenue through its comprehensive logistics services, primarily in three key areas: airfreight services, ocean freight services, and customs brokerage and other services. The company's revenue model is based on the fees charged for arranging and managing the transportation of goods via air and sea, leveraging its global network of carriers and partners to provide cost-effective shipping solutions. Additionally, Expeditors earns income from customs brokerage fees, which involve managing the complexities of international trade regulations and ensuring the smooth clearance of goods through customs. The company also offers distribution and warehousing services, contributing to its revenue streams. Strategic partnerships with carriers, shippers, and technology providers enhance Expeditors' service offerings and operational efficiency, further supporting its financial performance.

Expeditors International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Expeditors International demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability margins, low leverage, and robust cash flow generation. Despite facing revenue growth challenges, the company maintains stability through effective cost management and a strong balance sheet. The overall financial position is favorable, positioning the company well for future opportunities in the transportation industry.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a solid gross profit margin of 38.1% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin of 7.6% is stable, though showing a decrease from prior years due to revenue contraction. EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 9.8% and 10.5%, respectively, reflecting good operating efficiency despite revenue pressures. Revenue growth has been challenging, with a significant decline from 2022 to 2023, but recent TTM figures suggest stabilization.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The equity ratio of 46.8% is strong, showcasing a solid base of equity financing. However, return on equity is moderate at 36.4% for TTM, reflecting pressure on profitability. Overall, the company maintains a healthy balance sheet with low risk of financial distress.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.89, indicating effective cash conversion. Free cash flow generation remains robust with a modest decline year-over-year. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.84, demonstrating the company's ability to generate cash relative to earnings. This strong cash flow profile supports ongoing operations and potential investments despite revenue challenges.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
10.60B	9.30B	17.07B	16.52B	9.58B
	Gross Profit
1.35B	1.25B	2.17B	2.17B	1.16B
	EBIT
1.04B	939.93M	1.82B	1.91B	940.44M
	EBITDA
1.10B	1.01B	1.88B	1.98B	1.01B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
810.07M	752.88M	1.36B	1.42B	696.14M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.15B	1.51B	2.03B	1.73B	1.53B
	Total Assets
4.75B	4.62B	5.59B	7.61B	4.93B
	Total Debt
568.94M	527.73M	518.47M	467.66M	438.19M
	Net Debt
-579.38M	-985.15M	-1.52B	-1.26B	-1.09B
	Total Liabilities
2.53B	2.13B	2.48B	4.11B	2.26B
	Stockholders Equity
2.22B	2.39B	3.11B	3.49B	2.66B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.01B	1.01B	2.04B	832.25M	607.47M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.05B	1.05B	2.13B	868.49M	655.01M
	Investing Cash Flow
-39.43M	-39.43M	-87.71M	-36.65M	-46.03M
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.54B	-1.54B	-1.68B	-613.55M	-331.54M

Expeditors International Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 109.93
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXPD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 109.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 115.19, below the 50-day MA of 115.59, and below the 200-day MA of 118.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 1.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.16 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXPD.

Expeditors International Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXPD	75 Outperform	$14.56B	18.49	35.12%	1.38%	13.98%	14.29%
ZTO	75 Outperform	$13.85B	12.12	14.45%	5.75%	12.67%	-0.16%
CHRW	68 Neutral	$10.54B	23.11	29.65%	2.84%	0.73%	41.65%
LSTR	67 Neutral	$4.93B	25.59	20.03%	1.07%	-9.13%	-25.11%
JBHT	65 Neutral	$13.21B	23.77	14.06%	1.34%	-5.79%	-20.32%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$7.67B	13.25	3.04%	3.47%	3.63%	-13.99%
XPO	56 Neutral	$10.79B	28.29	27.07%	―	4.22%	105.29%

Expeditors International Corporate Events

Expeditors International Appoints Kelly Blacker as New President

On March 19, 2025, Expeditors International announced the appointment of Kelly K. Blacker as the new President – Global Geographies, effective April 1, 2025. Ms. Blacker, who has been with the company since 1994, has held various leadership roles, including President – Global Products. Her extensive experience within the company is expected to strengthen Expeditors’ operational capabilities and enhance its strategic positioning in the global logistics market.

Expeditors International Announces CEO Transition in 2025

On February 19, 2025, Expeditors International announced that CEO Jeffrey S. Musser plans to retire on March 31, 2025. Daniel R. Wall will succeed him as the new President and CEO, effective April 1, 2025. Wall, who has been with the company since 1987, has held various leadership roles and is recognized for his strong leadership skills and deep understanding of the business. This leadership transition aligns with Expeditors’ tradition of promoting from within and is expected to be seamless, continuing the company’s commitment to its culture and mission.

Expeditors International Navigates Challenges and Seizes Opportunities

Expeditors International highlights various challenges and opportunities in its operations, including the potential impact of tariffs, productivity improvements, and market adjustments due to geopolitical conflicts. The company has successfully increased operational efficiency without significant headcount expansion, and anticipates future staffing needs as volumes grow. Expeditors is well-positioned to benefit from complex trade environments, including changes in de minimis laws, which could open new business opportunities.