ECARX Holdings (ECX) AI Stock Analysis

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ECARX Holdings

(NASDAQ:ECX)

33Underperform

ECARX Holdings faces significant financial challenges with negative equity and high leverage, contributing to a low stock score. While there is some optimism from recent earnings calls due to revenue growth and strategic wins, the technical analysis and valuation aspects remain weak. The company's ability to improve its financial health and achieve positive EBITDA in the future will be critical for any potential stock performance improvement.

ECARX Holdings (ECX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$352.19M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)6.67M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.12

Revenue Growth18.50%

EPS Growth0.28%

CountryUS

Employees1,918

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength64

IndustryAuto - Parts

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.39

Shares Outstanding324,769,100

10 Day Avg. Volume7,923,191

30 Day Avg. Volume6,670,154

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)3.49

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$3.50

Price Target Upside268.42% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

ECARX Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionECARX Holdings, Inc. engages in the design, development, and delivery of vehicle technology. Its products include infotainment head units, digital cockpits, vehicle chip-set, operating system and software stack. The company was founded in 2017 and is based in Shanghai, China with an additional office in Europe.

How the Company Makes MoneyECARX Holdings primarily generates revenue through the sale and licensing of its automotive hardware and software solutions to vehicle manufacturers. The company partners with leading automotive brands to integrate its digital cockpits and infotainment systems into a wide range of vehicles. Additionally, ECARX earns income through strategic collaborations and alliances with industry giants, which help expand its market reach and technological capabilities. Revenue is further supported by continuous advancements in autonomous driving technology, which enhances the value proposition of ECARX's offerings to its clientele.

ECARX Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ECARX Holdings shows growth in revenue but faces substantial profitability and cash flow challenges. The negative equity and high leverage raise concerns about the company's financial stability. Continued focus on improving operational efficiency and cash flow management is crucial to enhance its financial health.

Income Statement

Negative

ECARX Holdings has exhibited a steady revenue growth over the years, increasing from $2.24 billion in 2020 to $5.56 billion in 2024. However, the company has been consistently unprofitable with negative net incomes throughout the period, culminating in a net loss of $932.3 million in 2024. The gross profit margin has shown some stability, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are concerningly negative, indicating ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet presents a worrying picture with consistent negative stockholders' equity, which worsened to -$1.76 billion in 2024. The high debt-to-equity ratio reflects significant leverage, increasing financial risk. Total liabilities exceed total assets, highlighting a negative equity ratio, which is a critical concern for financial stability.

Cash Flow

Negative

ECARX Holdings has struggled with cash flow management, as seen by negative free cash flow figures in recent years, reflecting inadequate cash generation to cover capital expenditures. The operating cash flow has also been negative, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient cash from its core operations to cover its expenses.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
5.56B	4.67B	3.56B	2.78B	2.24B
	Gross Profit
1.15B	1.27B	990.50M	817.19M	551.39M
	EBIT
-882.20M	-917.71M	-1.47B	-981.68M	-430.48M
	EBITDA
-796.40M	-814.87M	-1.42B	-973.15M	-321.69M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-932.30M	-940.19M	-1.54B	-1.18B	-439.66M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
454.50M	699.02M	737.40M	877.96M	729.94M
	Total Assets
3.77B	4.27B	4.25B	3.97B	2.58B
	Total Debt
1.99B	1.81B	1.56B	1.06B	1.10B
	Net Debt
1.67B	1.25B	824.60M	181.34M	371.45M
	Total Liabilities
5.52B	5.10B	4.43B	8.04B	4.41B
	Stockholders Equity
-1.76B	-921.41M	-177.20M	-4.10B	-1.84B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-544.93M	-1.31B	-533.54M	-951.19M	-437.16M
	Operating Cash Flow
-430.28M	-1.24B	-405.76M	-872.33M	-368.05M
	Investing Cash Flow
0.00	592.08M	-283.53M	-1.39B	-91.11M
	Financing Cash Flow
261.64M	296.83M	537.77M	2.19B	1.14B

ECARX Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price0.95

Price Trends

50DMA

2.02

Negative

100DMA

1.95

Negative

200DMA

1.86

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.16

Positive

RSI

29.47

Positive

STOCH

5.85

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ECX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.77, below the 50-day MA of 2.02, and below the 200-day MA of 1.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.47 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.85 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ECX.

ECARX Holdings Risk Analysis

ECARX Holdings disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ECARX Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

ECARX Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (59)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	59 Neutral	$11.48B	10.33	-0.84%	4.02%	1.25%	-16.06%
AEVA	53 Neutral	$401.05M	―	-92.90%	―	110.23%	12.96%
LAZR	43 Neutral	$187.36M	―	146.24%	―	8.05%	58.44%
SES	41 Neutral	$232.69M	―	-31.44%	―	―	-83.20%
INVZ	40 Underperform	$114.74M	―	-81.61%	―	16.25%	32.95%
HYLN	37 Underperform	$226.05M	―	-18.90%	―	124.55%	56.35%
ECX	33 Underperform	$352.19M	―	102.04%	―	18.50%	0.28%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ECX

ECARX Holdings

0.95

-0.73

-43.45%

LAZR

Luminar Technologies

4.42

-15.60

-77.92%

HYLN

Hyliion Holdings

1.29

-0.03

-2.27%

AEVA

Aeva Technologies

7.33

3.89

113.08%

INVZ

Innoviz Technologies

0.58

-0.57

-49.57%

SES

SES AI Corporation Class A

0.64

-1.08

-62.79%

ECARX Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 11, 2025 | % Change Since: -64.42% | Next Earnings Date: Jun 16, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflected a positive sentiment with significant revenue growth, new project wins, and achieving breakeven EBITDA. However, there were concerns around declining service revenue, software license revenue, and gross margin pressures.

Highlights

Revenue Growth

Revenue during the quarter and the year was up 4% and 18% respectively with gross margin of 21.2% and 20.8% respectively.

Record Shipments

Total shipments reached a record high of 2 million last year, up 33% year-over-year, with over 700,000 shipped during the fourth quarter alone.

Volkswagen Project Win

Secured a new project with Volkswagen Group, expanding the global customer base to 18 automakers across 28 brands.

Positive EBITDA

Achieved breakeven at EBITDA level during the quarter, with a full year breakeven targeted for 2025.

New Product Launches

Launched several new vehicles and integrated advanced technologies like AutoGPT and Cloudpeak into products, showcasing innovation and expanding market reach.

Lowlights

Software License Revenue Decline

Software license revenue decreased by 3% year-over-year, attributed to a decrease in the volume of legacy project software sales.

Service Revenue Decrease

Service revenue decreased by 31% year-over-year, reflecting a challenging market for service-based income.

Gross Margin Pressure

Gross margin decreased due to pricing strategies and a shift in the overall revenue mix, with expectations for continued pressure on hardware product margins.

Cash Position

As of the end of the year, cash and restricted cash stood at RMB367 million, indicating a need for capital raise strategies.

Company Guidance

During ECARX's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call, key financial metrics and guidance were discussed, highlighting significant achievements and future expectations. ECARX reported a 4% increase in quarterly revenue and an 18% rise for the full year, with gross margins of 21.2% and 20.8%, respectively. The company achieved breakeven at the EBITDA level in the fourth quarter, with expectations of full-year breakeven in 2025. Total shipments reached a record high of 2 million units, marking a 33% year-over-year increase, with over 700,000 units shipped in the fourth quarter alone. The company secured a new project with Volkswagen Group, expanding its global customer base to 18 automakers across 28 brands. Looking ahead, ECARX is optimistic about achieving positive EBITDA for the full year 2025 and announced a USD 20 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in their growth prospects amid the growing prominence of software-defined vehicles.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.