Krispy Kreme (DNUT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $737.40M
• Dividend Yield: 3.23%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.49M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 241.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: -1.23%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 170,300,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,209,352
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,486,544
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.56
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 8.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.09
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.40
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $8.33
• Price Target Upside: 92.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

Krispy Kreme's overall stock score reflects a mixed outlook. Financial performance is under pressure due to inconsistent profitability and high debt levels, while technical analysis suggests bearish trends. Valuation concerns arise from a high P/E ratio, although the dividend yield provides some compensation. The earnings call presents a balanced view with potential for growth, tempered by operational challenges. The recent corporate event of appointing a new COO offers a positive strategic development, potentially enhancing operational efficiency.

Positive Factors

Partnership Expansion

The ability to expand into retailers like Walmart, Costco and Target will have an equal if not greater impact on sales growth over the next two years as the MCD partnership.

Production Efficiency

Tech deployment has significantly improved production yields and enhanced the employee experience, contributing to increased efficiency.

Promotional Success

The recent Valentine’s Day promotion in the US generated one of the highest revenue periods for the company.

Negative Factors

Cybersecurity Incident

The cybersecurity incident has created some short term disruption in results.

Future Guidance

Materially worse guidance for 2025 undercuts the idea that ample demand for the brand will drive extended US growth.

Sales Performance

Volume growth is soft, and sales per hub were flat in the US despite additional doors being added.

Krispy Kreme Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) is an American multinational doughnut company and coffeehouse chain, renowned for its signature hot, glazed doughnuts and diverse range of sweet treats. Established in 1937, Krispy Kreme operates across multiple sectors including retail, wholesale, and e-commerce, offering its products through a network of company-owned stores, franchises, and partnerships with retail and foodservice channels globally. The brand is synonymous with its 'Hot Light' experience, signaling freshly made doughnuts, and is celebrated for its innovation in doughnut flavors and seasonal offerings.

How the Company Makes Money

Krispy Kreme generates revenue through several key streams: direct retail sales through its company-owned and franchise locations, wholesale distribution to grocery and convenience stores, and online sales. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with retailers and foodservice providers, which expand its market reach and enhance brand visibility. Additionally, Krispy Kreme leverages its brand equity by offering branded merchandise and leveraging licensing agreements. The company also focuses on marketing initiatives, such as its popular 'Hot Light' promotions, to drive in-store traffic and repeat purchases. Seasonal and limited-time offerings further boost sales by creating urgency and interest among consumers.

Krispy Kreme Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Krispy Kreme exhibits solid revenue generation and gross profit margins, but profitability remains inconsistent, impacted by negative EBIT and fluctuating net income. The balance sheet indicates a leveraged position with high debt levels, posing potential risks. Cash flow management is an area of concern due to negative free cash flow, despite positive operating cash flows. The company needs to address these financial challenges to ensure sustainable growth and financial stability.

Income Statement

Krispy Kreme has shown a steady increase in total revenue over the years, but the latest report shows a minor decline in revenue compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin is strong, indicating efficient management of production costs. However, the company has struggled with consistent profitability, as shown by fluctuating net income and negative EBIT in the latest period.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting a leveraged position. Although stockholders' equity has been stable, the company's total liabilities remain significant, which could pose risks. The equity ratio is moderate, indicating a balanced asset financing structure through equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a consistent challenge in generating positive free cash flow, with recent periods reflecting negative figures. Operating cash flow has been positive, but the company has faced high capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio indicates potential cash flow challenges in supporting net income.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.67B	1.69B	1.53B	1.38B	1.12B
	Gross Profit
1.26B	476.37M	1.12B	1.03B	811.13M
	EBIT
-8.73M	13.14M	28.98M	41.10M	4.28M
	EBITDA
213.43M	135.24M	141.09M	136.94M	78.15M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
3.10M	-37.92M	-8.78M	-14.84M	-60.94M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
28.96M	38.19M	35.37M	38.56M	38.51M
	Total Assets
3.07B	3.24B	3.15B	3.15B	3.06B
	Total Debt
508.34M	1.40B	1.24B	1.18B	1.59B
	Net Debt
479.38M	1.36B	1.20B	1.14B	1.56B
	Total Liabilities
1.91B	1.98B	1.85B	1.81B	2.21B
	Stockholders Equity
1.13B	1.17B	1.20B	1.23B	684.68M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-74.96M	-75.88M	28.10M	21.73M	-69.15M
	Operating Cash Flow
45.83M	45.54M	139.82M	141.22M	28.68M
	Investing Cash Flow
19.28M	-112.59M	-121.47M	-153.41M	-168.13M
	Financing Cash Flow
-73.95M	71.86M	-16.84M	16.10M	139.44M

Krispy Kreme Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.33
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DNUT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.38, below the 50-day MA of 5.64, and below the 200-day MA of 9.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DNUT.

Krispy Kreme Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WMK	77 Outperform	$2.19B	19.93	7.80%	1.67%	2.00%	5.89%
VLGEA	74 Outperform	$470.70M	9.49	11.59%	2.83%	3.96%	3.39%
NGVC	72 Outperform	$1.11B	31.12	21.52%	0.91%	9.31%	35.37%
IMKTA	65 Neutral	$1.14B	14.75	5.15%	1.08%	-7.38%	-57.42%
GO	65 Neutral	$1.54B	39.50	3.27%	―	10.13%	-50.29%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$6.85B	11.71	3.16%	4.15%	2.39%	-21.87%
DNUT	55 Neutral	$737.40M	241.90	0.27%	3.23%	-1.23%	―

Krispy Kreme Corporate Events

Krispy Kreme Appoints Nicola J. Steele as COO

On March 3, 2025, Krispy Kreme appointed Nicola J. Steele as the Chief Operating Officer. Ms. Steele has been with the company since 2006, holding various leadership roles in Australia and New Zealand. Her new compensation package includes a $400,000 annual salary, participation in the company’s bonus and long-term incentive programs, and a one-time award of restricted stock units. This appointment is part of Krispy Kreme’s strategic leadership development, potentially strengthening its operational capabilities and market positioning.