Dollar Tree (DLTR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.53B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.64M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: -9.88%
• EPS Growth: -205.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 64,434
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): -14.11
• Shares Outstanding: 215,083,010
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,186,494
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,644,480
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.46
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 4.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $81.79
• Price Target Upside: 21.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20

Dollar Tree faces significant challenges with declining profitability and increased leverage. Despite strategic shifts and a focus on core brand expansion, financial instability and tariff impacts remain concerning. The technical analysis suggests some recovery potential, while valuation metrics highlight the need for improved profitability. Recent earnings call guidance and strategic initiatives offer hope for future growth but are overshadowed by immediate financial risks.

Positive Factors

Earnings Per Share Growth Potential

Growing focus on '26 EPS rebound is key, with potential for EPS to grow significantly as comps improve and tariff concerns fade.

Share Repurchase Opportunities

The sale of FDO opens a large share repurchase opportunity, with DLTR poised to sharply accelerate share repurchase and buy back 15% of the shares outstanding.

Negative Factors

Digital and Pricing Challenges

Dollar Tree continues to face a digital dilemma, which may be more apparent as it pushes towards higher price-points.

Tariff and Execution Risks

Unresolved tariff risk and multi-price execution risk remain significant concerns, with potential impacts from a competitive U.S. market and macroeconomic challenges.

Dollar Tree Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and personal care, as well as everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,061 stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, as well as 15 distribution centers in the United States and 2 distribution centers in Canada. The Family Dollar segment operates general merchandise retail discount stores that offer consumable merchandise, which comprise food and beverages, tobacco, health and personal care, household chemicals, paper products, hardware and automotive supplies, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies; and home products, including housewares, home décor, and giftware, as well as domestics, such as comforters, sheets, and towels. It also provides apparel and accessories merchandise comprising clothing, fashion accessories, and shoes; and seasonal and electronics merchandise that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise, as well as personal electronics, which comprise pre-paid cellular phones and services, stationery and school supplies, and toys. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,016 stores under the Family Dollar brand; and 11 distribution centers. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Dollar Tree makes money primarily through the sale of consumer goods at its retail locations. The company's revenue model is based on high-volume sales of low-cost items, leveraging economies of scale to maintain profitability. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of merchandise in its Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic purchasing agreements and supply chain efficiencies that allow it to offer competitive pricing. Dollar Tree's revenue is also influenced by its ability to adapt its product mix to meet consumer demand and by maintaining a broad geographic presence, which helps to mitigate regional economic fluctuations.

Dollar Tree Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Dollar Tree's financial performance is challenged, with declining profitability and increased leverage seen in the TTM period. The stable gross profit margin is overshadowed by a negative net profit margin due to net losses, raising concerns about financial stability.

Income Statement

Dollar Tree's income statement shows a concerning trend with declining profitability. The TTM data reveals a negative net income, indicating financial stress. Gross profit margin remains stable, but the net profit margin is negative due to significant net losses. Revenue showed growth in prior years, but TTM figures suggest a downturn.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a relatively stable financial structure with a balanced debt-to-equity ratio, though with high total liabilities. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting that a significant portion of assets is financed by equity. However, the overall leverage increase in TTM raises concerns about financial risk.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics are mixed, with positive operating cash flow and a decent free cash flow, which has grown over the past year. However, the negative net income impacts the efficiency ratios, and the reliance on debt financing in TTM could present future liquidity challenges.

Breakdown
TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
17.58B	30.60B	28.33B	26.32B	25.51B	23.61B
	Gross Profit
6.29B	9.33B	8.94B	7.74B	7.79B	7.04B
	EBIT
1.46B	-881.80M	2.24B	1.81B	1.89B	1.26B
	EBITDA
2.23B	-40.90M	3.00B	2.52B	2.57B	1.90B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-3.03B	-998.40M	1.62B	1.33B	1.34B	827.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.26B	684.90M	642.80M	984.90M	1.42B	539.20M
	Total Assets
18.64B	22.02B	23.02B	21.72B	20.70B	19.57B
	Total Debt
5.40B	10.39B	10.13B	9.97B	9.64B	10.03B
	Net Debt
4.14B	9.70B	9.48B	8.99B	8.22B	9.49B
	Total Liabilities
14.67B	14.71B	14.27B	14.00B	13.41B	13.32B
	Stockholders Equity
18.64B	7.31B	8.75B	7.72B	7.29B	6.25B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.56B	576.90M	361.00M	408.70M	1.82B	833.10M
	Operating Cash Flow
2.86B	2.68B	1.61B	1.43B	2.72B	1.87B
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.70B	-2.11B	-1.25B	-1.02B	-889.70M	-1.02B
	Financing Cash Flow
-411.30M	-530.00M	-686.80M	-836.50M	-949.90M	-709.80M

Dollar Tree Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 67.55
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DLTR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 67.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.53, below the 50-day MA of 71.21, and below the 200-day MA of 78.29, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DLTR.

Dollar Tree Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OLLI	77 Outperform	$6.94B	35.04	12.47%	―	8.04%	10.75%
BJ	75 Outperform	$15.20B	28.85	32.33%	―	2.67%	2.72%
WMT	73 Outperform	$666.92B	34.59	22.23%	1.03%	5.07%	25.86%
DG	65 Neutral	$20.37B	18.11	15.89%	2.55%	4.96%	-32.41%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$11.20B	10.09	-1.41%	3.96%	1.31%	-16.95%
DLTR	57 Neutral	$14.53B	―	18.88%	―	-9.88%	-205.57%
TGT	54 Neutral	$43.61B	10.81	29.12%	4.66%	-0.79%	-0.90%

Dollar Tree Corporate Events

Dollar Tree Secures New Credit Agreements with JPMorgan

On March 21, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. entered into two significant credit agreements with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. The first is a $1,500 million revolving credit facility maturing in 2030, and the second is a $1,000 million 364-day revolving credit facility maturing in 2026. These agreements, which include various covenants and conditions, replace the company’s previous credit arrangement and are expected to enhance Dollar Tree’s financial flexibility. The agreements allow for voluntary repayment without penalties, supporting the company’s strategic financial management.

Dollar Tree to Divest Family Dollar for $1,007 Million

On March 26, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced its decision to divest its Family Dollar business to Brigade and Macellum for approximately $1,007 million, with net proceeds expected to be around $804 million. This strategic move, concluded after a thorough review, is anticipated to allow Dollar Tree to concentrate on its long-term growth and profitability. The sale is expected to close in about 90 days, subject to customary conditions, including antitrust approval. The financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 showed a slight increase in net sales by 0.7% to $5 billion, despite a decline in gross profit and operating income. The company also reported a diluted loss per share of $17.17, while adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations was $2.11.

Dollar Tree Appoints New CFO Stewart Glendinning

On March 4, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced the appointment of Stewart Glendinning as the new Chief Financial Officer, effective March 30, 2025. Glendinning, who joined the company earlier in 2025, has been involved in enterprise-wide transformation initiatives and the review of strategic alternatives for the Family Dollar business. This leadership change is expected to support Dollar Tree’s growth ambitions for 2025, as emphasized by CEO Mike Creedon. The company also announced a conference call scheduled for March 26, 2025, to discuss financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended February 1, 2025.

Dollar Tree Expands Board with Key Appointments

On February 27, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. appointed Michael C. Creedon, Jr., William W. Douglas III, and Timothy A. Johnson to its Board of Directors, with Creedon also serving as CEO since December 2024. The board’s expansion from nine to twelve members aims to bolster the company’s growth strategy in the competitive retail landscape. Douglas and Johnson bring extensive retail and financial leadership experience, enhancing the board’s capabilities to drive long-term value for stakeholders.

Dollar Tree Revises CEO Compensation Package for 2025

Dollar Tree, Inc. announced that on January 16, 2025, it approved changes to the compensation package for its Chief Executive Officer, Michael C. Creedon, Jr. This decision aligns with his elevation to CEO, with a revised agreement that includes an increased base salary and an enhanced target for his annual incentive opportunity. Furthermore, Mr. Creedon is expected to receive long-term incentive awards valued at $9,000,000 in fiscal year 2025, reflecting the company’s executive compensation strategy.