Vonovia (VNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €23.73B
• Dividend Yield: 3.11%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.29M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.55
• Revenue Growth: 15.65%
• EPS Growth: 86.00%
• Country: DE
• Employees: 15,915
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Real Estate
• EPS (TTM): -1.09
• Shares Outstanding: 822,852,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,622,741
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,292,035
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.92
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €34.20
• Price Target Upside: 18.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

Vonovia's stock reflects financial challenges, with strong cash flow management overshadowed by declining profitability and high leverage. The technical analysis shows a bearish trend, and the negative P/E ratio highlights valuation difficulties, though the dividend yield offers some attraction. Overall, the stock faces significant risks, primarily due to financial performance concerns.

Positive Factors

Financial Health

The company has improved its loan/value ratio and net debt/EBITDA, indicating better financial health.

Operational Performance

The low vacancy rates and high rent collection rate indicate strong operational performance.

Stock Performance

Vonovia has outperformed the wider European EPRA Index YTD, up 12% compared to the Index which is up 4% over the same period.

Negative Factors

Asset Valuation

The disposal of part of the care home business for €300m, we estimate, values the assets at c.30% discount to the last reported book value, and at a c.45% discount to the end of FY21, following the acquisition of Deutsche Wohnen.

Cash Flow Impact

Although Vonovia has made good progress in generating liquidity, the longer term impact on cashflows, in conjunction with the effects of re-financing, will see growth impacted.

Earnings

Higher financing costs and increased payouts to minorities have led to a 7% decline in EBT per share year on year.

Vonovia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vonovia SE is a leading residential real estate company in Germany, focusing on managing, developing, and optimizing residential properties. The company operates in sectors such as property management, property development, and real estate services. Vonovia's core services include renting out residential units, maintaining properties, and providing energy-efficient housing solutions.

How the Company Makes Money

Vonovia makes money primarily through rental income from its extensive portfolio of residential properties. The company generates revenue by leasing apartments, managing rental agreements, and maintaining the properties. Additionally, Vonovia engages in property development, where it constructs new residential buildings or renovates existing ones, ultimately adding them to its rental portfolio. Another revenue stream comes from providing real estate-related services, such as energy services, modernization, and maintenance, which enhance the value and sustainability of its properties. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships also play a role in expanding its asset base and increasing rental income.

Vonovia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vonovia's financial statements show a mixed performance. The company faces declining profitability and high leverage risks, despite positive revenue growth and robust cash flow management. The income statement indicates a net loss with significant cost pressures, while the balance sheet reflects high debt levels. However, strong cash flows underline operational efficiency.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals a decline in profitability with a net loss recorded in recent years, worsened by significant negative net income in 2024. Gross profit margin has decreased over time, indicating increased cost pressures. Revenue growth shows a positive trend, but EBIT and EBITDA margins are significantly impacted, with EBIT dropping to zero in 2024.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a stable equity position, but high debt levels result in a substantial debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting financial leverage risks. The equity ratio has been stable, but the decrease in stockholders' equity in 2024 points to potential capital erosion issues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow statements show robust operating cash flows and consistent free cash flow, highlighting operational efficiency. There is positive free cash flow growth and strong cash flow coverage of net income, despite net losses, suggesting effective cash management.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
5.94B	5.23B	5.15B	3.62B	3.15B
	Gross Profit
2.25B	2.46B	2.86B	2.23B	2.08B
	EBIT
1.00B	1.76B	-363.70M	6.03B	5.46B
	EBITDA
408.00M	2.17B	1.26B	1.98B	5.56B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-896.00M	-6.29B	-669.40M	2.68B	3.27B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.02B	1.37B	1.20B	1.32B	453.40M
	Total Assets
90.24B	92.00B	101.39B	106.32B	62.42B
	Total Debt
43.21B	43.57B	45.69B	47.69B	24.63B
	Net Debt
41.51B	42.20B	44.49B	46.38B	24.17B
	Total Liabilities
62.11B	62.05B	66.95B	69.78B	37.59B
	Stockholders Equity
24.00B	25.68B	31.33B	33.29B	24.15B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
2.40B	1.90B	1.86B	1.47B	1.16B
	Operating Cash Flow
2.40B	1.90B	2.08B	1.82B	1.43B
	Investing Cash Flow
-187.60M	-825.90M	938.20M	-19.12B	-1.73B
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.82B	-961.00M	-3.15B	18.13B	402.60M

Vonovia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 28.84
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:VNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.66, above the 50-day MA of 27.04, and below the 200-day MA of 29.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:VNA.

Vonovia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HNR1	68 Neutral	€33.86B	14.50	21.25%	2.56%	9.08%	27.60%
GYC	66 Neutral	€1.77B	9.25	5.48%	―	-1.76%	―
LEG	61 Neutral	€5.50B	82.97	0.89%	3.33%	2.26%	―
Sector *	59 Neutral	$2.72B	11.59	0.11%	8770.69%	5.44%	-16.52%
DWNI	50 Neutral	$8.24B	―	-4.68%	0.17%	6.08%	―
VNA	46 Neutral	€23.73B	―	-3.71%	3.11%	15.65%	86.00%