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Coinbase Global (COIN)
NASDAQ:COIN

Coinbase Global (COIN) AI Stock Analysis

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Coinbase Global

(NASDAQ:COIN)

68Neutral
Coinbase Global shows strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and profitability improvements. The earnings call highlights positive future guidance and strategic priorities, though there are concerns regarding rising expenses. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, which may present short-term challenges. Overall, Coinbase's strengths in financial growth and strategic positioning are offset by current market technical trends, resulting in a moderate stock score.
Positive Factors
Market leadership
COIN remains the dominant player in crypto, with regulatory clarity now unlocking growth opportunities.
Regulatory developments
The SEC drops ongoing lawsuit against the exchange without any financial penalties, signaling a reversal of prior anti-crypto sentiments and opening the door for a clearer digital asset regulatory framework.
Revenue diversification
COIN is shedding its reliance on volatile trading revenue, with non-trading revenue growing 71% year-over-year.
Negative Factors
Competitive pressure
Investors were concerned over whether the bump in earnings would be sustainable and fears of fee compression from competition and new entrants remains a short-term threat.
Revenue concentration risk
Risks to upside potential are COIN’s dependence on transaction revenue for profitability and potential for new competition from traditional financial institutions.
Stablecoin revenue decline
COIN's stablecoin revenue declined -9% quarter-over-quarter, missing estimates, despite the average daily USDC market cap growing +10%.

Coinbase Global (COIN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Coinbase Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCoinbase Global, Inc. is a leading American company in the cryptocurrency industry, providing a secure and user-friendly platform for buying, selling, and managing digital currencies. Founded in 2012, Coinbase operates in the financial technology sector, focusing primarily on enabling access to a wide range of cryptocurrencies for retail and institutional investors. The company's core products and services include a cryptocurrency exchange, a digital wallet, and various tools for merchants and developers to conduct transactions using digital assets.
How the Company Makes MoneyCoinbase Global makes money primarily through transaction fees charged on its cryptocurrency exchange. The company generates revenue by taking a percentage fee on trades conducted by users on its platform, which can vary depending on the size of the transaction and the user's location. In addition to transaction fees, Coinbase earns from subscription and services revenue, which includes services like Coinbase Custody for institutional clients, staking services, and earning interest on certain digital assets. The company also benefits from partnerships with various financial institutions and blockchain projects, contributing to its earnings by providing technological solutions and infrastructure support. Significant market volatility and increased interest in cryptocurrencies can significantly influence Coinbase's revenue, as more trading activity leads to higher transaction fee income.

Coinbase Global Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Coinbase Global has shown significant improvement in financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and profitability margins. The company reported a strong revenue growth rate of 111% and high gross profit margin of 86.3% in 2024. The balance sheet reflects a healthy leverage position and strong equity base, though asset reductions may need attention. Cash flow metrics are robust, highlighting the company's ability to generate cash effectively.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Coinbase Global has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with Total Revenue increasing significantly from $3108 million in 2023 to $6564 million in 2024, a growth rate of 111%. The Gross Profit Margin was high at 86.3% in 2024, indicating efficient cost management. However, the company experienced volatility in profitability with a Net Profit Margin of 39.3% in 2024, which is an improvement from previous losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also improved positively to 35.1% in 2024.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The Debt-to-Equity Ratio was 0.44 in 2024, reflecting a balanced leverage position. Return on Equity (ROE) was 25.1%, indicating strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The Equity Ratio was 45.6%, showing a solid equity foundation. However, the company’s Total Assets have decreased compared to prior periods, which could pose a challenge for future growth.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Coinbase Global showed strong cash flow performance with a Free Cash Flow of $2556 million in 2024, improving from $860 million in 2023. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio was 0.99, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio was also favorable at 0.99, suggesting strong cash flow conversion from profit.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
6.56B3.11B3.19B7.84B1.28B
Gross Profit
5.67B2.69B2.56B6.57B1.14B
EBIT
2.31B-161.66M-2.67B3.08B408.95M
EBITDA
3.15B25.21M-2.82B3.14B464.93M
Net Income Common Stockholders
2.58B94.87M-2.62B3.62B322.32M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
9.82B10.29B5.29B7.22B1.11B
Total Assets
22.54B206.98B89.72B21.27B5.86B
Total Debt
4.53B3.06B3.49B3.49B107.78M
Net Debt
-4.05B-2.08B-935.28M-3.63B-954.07M
Total Liabilities
12.27B200.70B84.27B14.89B4.33B
Stockholders Equity
10.28B6.28B5.45B6.38B1.53B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
2.56B859.75M-1.65B10.64B2.99B
Operating Cash Flow
2.56B922.95M-1.59B10.73B3.00B
Investing Cash Flow
-282.38M5.39M-663.82M-1.12B50.82M
Financing Cash Flow
2.83B-811.33M-5.84B3.28B18.80M

Coinbase Global Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price191.69
Price Trends
50DMA
258.86
Negative
100DMA
264.42
Negative
200DMA
235.51
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-20.24
Positive
RSI
34.65
Neutral
STOCH
30.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COIN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 191.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 232.46, below the 50-day MA of 258.86, and below the 200-day MA of 235.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -20.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for COIN.

Coinbase Global Risk Analysis

Coinbase Global disclosed 85 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Coinbase Global reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Coinbase Global Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$67.43B17.0520.00%7.10%4.45%
XYXYZ
74
Outperform
$33.91B12.0314.50%10.06%38060.98%
68
Neutral
$45.50B18.8831.13%132.55%2681.72%
64
Neutral
$13.88B10.799.29%4.15%17.66%-7.41%
63
Neutral
$2.65B21.954.35%34.20%
55
Neutral
$4.64B9.7718.84%69.38%30.30%
50
Neutral
$61.77B-11.44%-6.61%-254.90%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
COIN
Coinbase Global
191.69
-64.45
-25.16%
RIOT
Riot Platforms
7.72
-3.90
-33.56%
MSTR
Strategy
260.59
101.25
63.54%
MARA
Marathon Digital Holdings
13.32
-6.87
-34.03%
PYPL
PayPal Holdings
67.98
7.95
13.24%
XYZ
Block
55.29
-26.42
-32.33%

Coinbase Global Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 13, 2025 | % Change Since: -30.27% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call for Coinbase Global, Inc. was largely positive, with strong revenue growth, increased trading volumes, and favorable regulatory developments. However, there were some concerns about declining stablecoin revenue and rising expenses.
Highlights
Impressive Revenue Growth
Total revenue in 2024 more than doubled to $6.6 billion, with $3.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA, marking two straight years of positive adjusted EBITDA.
Subscription Services Surge
Subscription services revenue increased by 64% year-over-year to $2.3 billion, driven by USDC, staking, and Coinbase One.
Record Trading Volume
Q4 total trading volume was $439 billion, up 137% quarter-over-quarter, with consumer trading volume at $94 billion, up 176%.
International Revenue Growth
International revenue share reached 19% in Q4 due to improved payment rails and localization.
Positive Adjusted EBITDA and Net Income
Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $1.3 billion, and net income was also $1.3 billion, with significant gains from crypto asset investment portfolio.
Regulatory Tailwinds
Regulatory environment becoming more favorable, with new pro-crypto legislation and support from the US government.
Strong Balance Sheet
USD resources grew to $9.3 billion by the end of the year, providing flexibility for investments and acquisitions.
Lowlights
Stablecoin Revenue Decline
Stablecoin revenue declined by $21 million or 9% due to the lower interest rate environment and new USDC ecosystem participants.
Increased Operating Expenses
Q4 operating expenses were $1.2 billion, up 19%, primarily driven by higher transaction expenses and increased marketing spend.
Volatility Impact Concerns
Questions from analysts regarding the impact of market volatility on user activity, though management downplayed significant impact.
Company Guidance
During the Coinbase Global, Inc. fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call, the company provided optimistic guidance for 2025, highlighting several key metrics and strategic priorities. Coinbase achieved a total revenue of $6.6 billion in 2024, more than doubling from the previous year, with an adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 billion, marking two consecutive years of positive adjusted EBITDA. Subscription services revenue increased by 64% year-over-year to $2.3 billion, driven by USDC, staking, and Coinbase One. The company's international revenue share reached 19% in Q4, thanks to improved payment rails and localization efforts. Looking ahead to 2025, Coinbase aims to grow revenue through existing products, expand into international markets, and capitalize on regulatory tailwinds. Priorities include enhancing derivatives trading, driving USDC's market cap growth, and increasing subscription services revenue. Additionally, Coinbase plans to accelerate crypto payments integration, lower transaction fees on Base, and support landmark crypto legislation, while maintaining a strong focus on operating discipline and opportunistic investments.

Coinbase Global Corporate Events

Legal Proceedings
Coinbase Global Reaches Agreement with SEC on Litigation
Neutral
Feb 21, 2025

Coinbase Global faced legal action from the SEC beginning in June 2023, with allegations of operating an unregistered securities exchange and offering unregistered securities. On February 21, 2025, Coinbase announced an agreement in principle with the SEC to dismiss the litigation, pending approval from the SEC’s Commissioners, marking a significant development in its ongoing legal challenges.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.