Cinemark Holdings (CNK) AI Stock Analysis

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Cinemark Holdings

(NYSE:CNK)

66Neutral

Cinemark Holdings is on a recovery path post-pandemic with strong financial health, evidenced by stable revenue, improved margins, and robust cash flow. The technical indicators suggest short-term caution due to bearish trends. The valuation is reasonable, reinforced by the reinstatement of dividends, indicating long-term confidence. Overall, while the company faces challenges like high leverage and attendance declines, its strategic initiatives and financial improvements position it for potential growth.

Positive Factors

Box Office Recovery

Cinemark remains a top pick, supported by a strengthening box office recovery, robust capital allocation strategy, and operational discipline.

Margin Expansion

Cinemark is benefiting from margin expansion via premium format adoption and higher per-capita spending, positioning the company for profitable growth.

Shareholder Returns

Post-repayment of convertible notes, Cinemark plans to increase shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, aligning with cash flow trends and market conditions.

Negative Factors

Box Office Performance

The Q1 2025 revenue and AEBITDA estimates are lowered due to weaker-than-expected box office performance, with a domestic total down 11.6% year-over-year.

Financial Performance

The combination of a weak slate, foreign exchange pressure, and mix-driven rental expense is expected to result in softer financial performance for Q1.

Margin Pressure

Margin pressure in the quarter is expected due to film rental costs and slate carryover.

Cinemark Holdings (CNK) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.32B

Dividend Yield0.28%

Average Volume (3M)4.41M

Price to Earnings (P/E)13.7

Beta (1Y)0.52

Revenue Growth-0.56%

EPS Growth63.92%

CountryUS

Employees9,252

SectorCommunication Services

Sector Strength79

IndustryEntertainment

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.03

Shares Outstanding117,919,400

10 Day Avg. Volume4,287,679

30 Day Avg. Volume4,405,765

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.21

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)1.04

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)7.60

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$34.88

Price Target Upside22.21% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering8

Cinemark Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCinemark Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the motion picture exhibition business. As of June 30, 2022, it operated 522 theatres with 5,868 screens in the United States, and South and Central America. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

How the Company Makes MoneyCinemark Holdings generates revenue primarily through three key streams: box office ticket sales, concession sales, and advertising. Box office sales are driven by the number of tickets sold for movie screenings in its theaters, with a portion of ticket revenue shared with film distributors. Concession sales, which include snacks and beverages sold at theaters, offer high-margin opportunities for additional revenue. Additionally, Cinemark earns income from on-screen advertising and lobby promotions, leveraging its theater network to provide advertisers with access to large and diverse audiences. Strategic partnerships with film studios and technology companies also play a crucial role in enhancing its offerings and driving attendance.

Cinemark Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cinemark Holdings is recovering post-pandemic with stable revenue and improved net profit margins. The balance sheet shows reduced leverage but still carries high debt levels. Cash flow generation is strong, aiding financial stability, but careful debt management is essential.

Income Statement

Positive

Cinemark Holdings shows a stable revenue base with a slight decrease in total revenue in 2024 compared to 2023. The net profit margin improved significantly from 2023 to 2024, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly declined, suggesting some pressure on operational profitability. The overall recovery post-pandemic is commendable, but there is room for improvement in maintaining consistent revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly from 2023 to 2024, indicating reduced leverage, but it remains relatively high, posing potential risks. The return on equity has shown a substantial increase, reflecting better profitability on equity. However, the equity ratio remains low, implying a relatively high reliance on debt financing. The balance sheet indicates a gradual strengthening position but still carries risks associated with high leverage.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cinemark Holdings has demonstrated strong free cash flow growth from 2023 to 2024, which is a positive indicator of financial health. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, showing effective cash conversion from earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests that while cash generation is strong, it could be optimized further to enhance liquidity.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.05B	3.07B	2.45B	1.51B	686.31M
	Gross Profit
1.96B	570.60M	1.58B	997.60M	450.85M
	EBIT
359.30M	371.80M	91.80M	-230.04M	-590.82M
	EBITDA
616.30M	603.90M	140.90M	-3.79M	-511.73M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
309.70M	188.20M	-268.00M	-422.21M	-617.95M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.06B	849.10M	674.50M	707.34M	655.34M
	Total Assets
5.07B	4.84B	4.82B	5.23B	5.56B
	Total Debt
1.59B	3.55B	3.78B	3.94B	3.93B
	Net Debt
528.40M	2.70B	3.10B	3.24B	3.28B
	Total Liabilities
4.46B	4.52B	4.70B	4.90B	4.76B
	Stockholders Equity
594.40M	309.80M	110.20M	322.90M	787.97M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
315.20M	294.80M	25.30M	70.68M	-414.03M
	Operating Cash Flow
472.80M	444.30M	136.00M	166.22M	-330.10M
	Investing Cash Flow
-146.90M	-131.80M	-96.30M	-89.30M	-83.37M
	Financing Cash Flow
-103.10M	-125.40M	-52.20M	-19.93M	584.41M

Cinemark Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price28.54

Price Trends

50DMA

26.68

Positive

100DMA

28.92

Negative

200DMA

27.92

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.58

Negative

RSI

66.79

Neutral

STOCH

96.63

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.15, above the 50-day MA of 26.68, and above the 200-day MA of 27.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.63 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CNK.

Cinemark Holdings Risk Analysis

Cinemark Holdings disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cinemark Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Cinemark Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (59)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EPR	74 Outperform	$3.69B	30.23	6.11%	7.07%	-1.01%	-18.46%
IMAX	69 Neutral	$1.15B	44.87	9.10%	―	-6.04%	6.43%
CNK	66 Neutral	$3.32B	13.70	67.31%	0.28%	-0.56%	63.92%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$13.83B	7.37	-0.59%	3.89%	2.56%	-39.63%
AMC	50 Neutral	$1.28B	―	20.03%	―	-3.64%	48.94%
LGF.A	38 Underperform	$1.78B	―	168.75%	―	-2.85%	75.96%

* Communication Services Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CNK

Cinemark Holdings

28.54

10.48

58.03%

IMAX

22.45

5.34

31.21%

EPR

EPR Properties

49.27

11.78

31.42%

AMC

AMC Entertainment

2.78

-0.14

-4.79%

LGF.A

Lions Gate Entertainment Class A

8.00

-2.05

-20.40%

RGC

Regencell Bioscience

29.12

23.90

457.85%

Cinemark Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 19, 2025 | % Change Since: -13.38% | Next Earnings Date: May 2, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects a positive outlook for Cinemark with strong revenue growth, record concession sales, and strategic initiatives driving success. While there are some challenges such as a decline in attendance and increased expenses, the reinstatement of the dividend and strong market outperformance highlight the company's resilience and recovery.

Highlights

Strong Revenue Growth

Worldwide revenue reached over $3 billion with $590 million of adjusted EBITDA and a solid 19.4% adjusted EBITDA margin, flat year over year despite a 4% decline in attendance.

Record Concession Sales

Achieved all-time high concession sales with a new domestic food and beverage per cap record of $7.89.

Box Office Outperformance

Cinemark outpaced the industry by 300 basis points domestically and 100 basis points internationally, extending its trend of outperformance.

Reinstated Dividend

Cinemark announced the reinstatement of an annual cash dividend of $0.32 per share, marking a milestone in company recovery from the pandemic.

Strong International Performance

International revenue grew 23% year over year to $147.9 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 160% to $28.9 million.

Lowlights

Attendance Decline

Despite strong financial performance, there was a 4% decline in attendance year over year.

Pressure from Wage Increases

Global salaries and wages increased 11% due to higher payroll hours, wage rates, and employee benefits.

Impact of Film Rental Rates

Film rental and advertising expenses increased by 440 basis points due to a higher concentration of high-grossing titles.

Company Guidance

During the earnings call, Cinemark Holdings outlined several key metrics and guidance for the future. The company reported a domestic concession per cap record of $7.97 and a strong adjusted EBITDA of $590 million with a solid 19.4% adjusted EBITDA margin. North American industry box office reached approximately $8.8 billion in 2024, climbing to within 3% of 2023's level, despite Hollywood strikes. Cinemark outperformed the industry by 300 basis points domestically and 100 basis points internationally. The company entertained over 200 million guests globally, achieved all-time high concession sales, and reported worldwide revenue exceeding $3 billion. Looking forward, Cinemark anticipates further box office recovery and plans to allocate approximately $225 million in capital expenditures in 2025, focusing on maintaining a high-quality circuit and pursuing ROI-generating opportunities. Additionally, Cinemark reinstated its annual cash dividend at $0.32 per share, reflecting confidence in future growth and commitment to shareholder value.

Cinemark Holdings Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Cinemark Holdings Signs New Agreement with Marketing Leader

Neutral

Mar 3, 2025

On February 28, 2025, Cinemark Holdings entered into a new employment agreement with Ms. Wanda Gierhart, who has been with the company since 2018 in various marketing leadership roles. The agreement outlines her compensation, including a base salary of $575,000, eligibility for bonuses, and participation in the company’s equity incentive plan. The contract also details severance packages and benefits in the event of termination, ensuring Ms. Gierhart’s continued contribution to the company’s marketing strategies and operations.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Cinemark Holdings Reinstates Dividend Amid Strong Q4 Results

Positive

Feb 19, 2025

Cinemark Holdings reported a robust financial performance for Q4 and FY 2024, with total revenue exceeding $3 billion and net income of $313 million. The company reinstated its annual cash dividend at $0.32 per share, emphasizing its recovery from the pandemic and commitment to shareholder value. Cinemark outperformed the North American industry box office and showed significant market share growth, despite challenges like the 2023 Hollywood Guild Strikes. The company also strengthened its balance sheet by retiring pandemic-related debt and reducing interest expenses.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.