Chipotle (CMG) Risk Analysis

We have been and likely will continue to be subject to litigation and other legal proceedings that may adversely affect our business. These legal proceedings may involve claims brought by employees, guests, government agencies, suppliers, shareholders or others through private actions, administrative proceedings, regulatory actions or other litigation, including litigation on a class or collective basis on behalf of what can be a large group of potential claimants. These legal proceedings have involved, and in the future may involve, allegations of illegal, unfair or inconsistent employment practices, including those governing wage and hour, employment of minors, discrimination, harassment, wrongful termination, and vacation and family leave laws; food safety issues including food-borne illness, food contamination and adverse health effects from consumption of our food products; data security or privacy breaches; guest discrimination; personal injury in our restaurants; marketing and advertising claims, including claims that our Food with Integrity or other sustainability claims are misleading or inaccurate; infringement of patent, copyright or other intellectual property rights; violation of the federal securities laws; workers' compensation; or other concerns. We are party to a number of pending lawsuits and governmental audits alleging violations of federal and state employment laws, including wage and hour claims, and we could be involved in similar or even more significant litigation and legal proceedings in the future. Even if the allegations against us in current or future legal matters are unfounded or we ultimately are held not liable, the costs to defend ourselves may be significant and the litigation may subject us to substantial settlements, fines, penalties or judgments against us and may divert management's attention away from operating our business, all of which could negatively impact our financial condition and results of operations. Litigation also may generate negative publicity, regardless of whether the allegations are valid, or we ultimately are not liable, which could damage our reputation, and adversely impact our sales as well as our relationships with our employees and guests.

The restaurant industry is highly competitive with respect to taste preferences, price, food quality and selection, customer service, brand reputation, digital engagement, advertising and promotional initiatives, and the location, attractiveness and maintenance of restaurants. We also compete with non-traditional market participants, such as "convenience meals" in the form of entrées, side dishes or meal preparation kits from the deli or prepared foods sections of grocery stores, meal kit delivery services, and "ghost" or "dark" kitchens, where meals are prepared at separate takeaway premises rather than a restaurant. Increased competition could have an adverse effect on our sales, profitability and development plans. If guest or dietary preferences change, if our marketing efforts are unsuccessful, or if our restaurants are unable to compete successfully with other restaurant outlets, our business could be adversely affected. We continue to believe that our commitment to higher-quality and responsibly sourced ingredients resonates with guests and gives us a competitive advantage; however, many of our competitors also make claims related to the quality of their ingredients and lack of artificial flavors, colors and preservatives. The increasing use of these claims by competitors, regardless of the accuracy of such claims, may lessen our differentiation and make it more difficult for us to compete. If we are unable to continue to maintain our distinctiveness and compete effectively, our business, financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected.

In 2023, 37.4% of our food and beverage revenue was derived from digital orders, which includes third-party delivery and customer pickup in-restaurant and through our Chipotlanes. Approximately 18% of our 2023 food and beverage revenue consisted of delivery orders for which we are reliant on third-party delivery companies. Depending on which ordering platform a guest uses – our platform or the platform of a third-party delivery service – the delivery fee we collect from the guest may be less than the actual delivery cost, which has a negative impact on our profitability. In addition, several jurisdictions (e.g., California, New York City and Seattle) have implemented minimum wages for delivery drivers, and other jurisdictions are considering similar wage regulations, which could increase delivery fees and decrease our digital sales. In 2023, we implemented menu price increases to partially offset the increases in ingredients, labor and other costs; however, our higher menu prices may cause some guests to shift their purchases to other restaurants offered on the platform. If the third-party delivery companies we utilize increase their fees or give greater priority or promotions on their platforms to other restaurants, our delivery business and our sales may be negatively impacted. These delivery companies maintain control over data regarding our guests who use their platform and over the guest experience. We use our mobile app to drive convenience and increase brand engagement with our guests. If a third-party delivery driver fails to make timely deliveries or fails to deliver the complete order, our guests may attribute the bad customer experience to Chipotle and our reputation and sales could be negatively impacted. The ordering and payment platforms used by these third parties, our mobile app or our online ordering site have been and could again be interrupted by technological failures, user errors, cyber-attacks or other factors, which could adversely impact sales through these channels and negatively impact our overall sales and reputation. In addition, the delivery business has been consolidating and may continue to consolidate, which may give third-party delivery companies more leverage in negotiating the terms and pricing of contracts, which in turn could negatively impact our profits from this channel.

Social media and internet-based communications, including video-sharing, social networking, and gaming and messaging platforms, give users immediate access to a broad audience. These platforms have dramatically increased the speed and scale of dissemination and accessibility of information, including negative comments about our food quality or safety, negative guest or employee experiences and videos depicting inappropriate behavior of employees and guests. Accurate, inaccurate or misleading information can be widely disseminated before there is any meaningful opportunity to respond or address an issue. It is impossible for us to fully predict or control social media backlash, and the inappropriate use of social media by our guests or employees could harm our business, prospects, financial condition, and results of operations, regardless of the information's accuracy. Use of social media is an important element of our marketing efforts. Social media and internet-based communication platforms are evolving rapidly, and we need to continuously innovate and evolve our marketing strategies to maintain our brand relevance and broad appeal to guests. We also continue to invest in other digital marketing initiatives to reach our guests and build their awareness of, engagement with, and loyalty to us, including our "Chipotle Rewards" loyalty program. These initiatives may not be successful, resulting in expenses incurred without the benefit of higher revenues, increased customer engagement or brand recognition. Other risks associated with our use of social media and internet-based communication platforms include association with influencers or online celebrities who become embroiled in controversy, platforms and business partners who experience challenges, improper disclosure of proprietary information, negative comments about us, exposure of personally identifiable information, fraud, hoaxes or malicious dissemination of false information. Use of social media by our employees, guests and associates could lead to litigation or result in negative publicity that could damage our reputation.

We believe the market price of our common stock generally has traded at a higher price-earnings ratio than stocks of most of our peer companies as well as the overall market, which typically has reflected market expectations for higher future operating results. At any given point in time, our price-earnings ratio may trade at more than twice the price-earnings ratio of the S&P 500. Also, the trading market for our common stock has been volatile at times, including because of adverse publicity events. As a result, if we fail to meet market expectations for our operating results in the future, any resulting decline in the price of our common stock could be significant.

Our quarterly financial results may fluctuate significantly and could fail to meet investors' expectations for various reasons, including: ?negative publicity about the safety of our food, employment-related issues, litigation or other issues involving our restaurants;?fluctuations in supply costs, particularly for our most significant ingredients, and our inability to offset the higher cost with price increases, without adversely impacting guest traffic;?our inability to purchase sufficient quantities of our key ingredients as our restaurant count grows;?labor availability and wages of restaurant management and employees;?increases in marketing or promotional expenses;?the timing of new restaurant openings and related revenues and expenses, and the operating costs at newly opened restaurants;?the impact of inclement weather and natural disasters, such as freezes and droughts, which could decrease guest traffic and increase the costs of ingredients;?the amount and timing of stock-based compensation;?litigation, settlement costs and related legal expenses;?tax expenses, asset impairment charges and non-operating costs; and ?variations in general economic conditions, including the impact of rising inflation and the impact of rising interest rates on consumer demand trends. As a result of any of these factors, results for any one quarter are not necessarily indicative of results to be expected for any other quarter or for any year. Average restaurant sales or comparable restaurant sales in any future period may decrease.

As our reliance on technology has grown, the scope and severity of risks posed to our systems from cyber threats has increased. Many of our information technology systems (whether cloud-based or hosted in proprietary servers), including those used for our point-of-sale, web and mobile platforms, online and mobile payment systems, delivery services and rewards programs and administrative functions, contain personal, financial or other information that is entrusted to us by our guests, business partners and employees. Many of our information technology systems also contain confidential information about our business, such as business strategies, development initiatives and designs, and confidential information about third parties, such as suppliers. Similar to many other restaurant companies, we have in the past experienced, and we expect to continue to experience, cyber-attacks, including phishing, and other attempts to breach, or gain unauthorized access to, our systems and databases. To date, these attacks have not had a material impact on our operations, but we cannot provide assurance that they will not have an impact in the future. Our third-party providers' and business partners' information technology systems and databases are likewise subject to such risks. The number and frequency of these attempts varies from year to year but could be exacerbated to some extent by an increase in our digital operations. In addition, we provide some guest and employee data, as well as confidential information important to our business, to third parties to conduct our business. Individuals performing work for us and these third parties also may access some of this data, including on personally owned digital devices. To the extent we, a third party or such an individual were to experience a breach of our or their information technology systems that results in the unauthorized access, theft, use, destruction or other compromises of customers' or employees' data or confidential information of Chipotle stored in or transmitted through such systems, including through cyber-attacks or other external or internal methods, it could result in a material loss of revenues from the potential adverse impact to our reputation and brand, a decrease in our ability to retain customers or attract new ones, the imposition of potentially significant costs (including loss of data or payment for recovery of data) and liabilities, loss of business, loss of business partners and licensees and the disruption to our supply chain, business and plans. Unauthorized access, theft, use, destruction or other compromises are becoming increasingly sophisticated and may occur through a variety of methods, including attacks using malicious code, vulnerabilities in software, hardware or other infrastructure (including systems used by our supply chain), system misconfigurations, phishing or social engineering. The rapid evolution and increased adoption of artificial intelligence technologies may intensify our cybersecurity risks. Our logging capabilities, or the logging capabilities of third parties, are not always complete or sufficiently granular, affecting our ability to fully understand the scope of security breaches. Such security breaches also could result in a violation of applicable U.S. and international privacy, cyber and other laws or trigger data breach notification laws, including new disclosure rules promulgated by the SEC, and subject us to private third party or securities litigation and governmental investigations and proceedings, any of which could result in our exposure to material civil or criminal liability. We may be required to make significant capital investments and other expenditures to investigate security incidents, remedy cybersecurity problems, recuperate lost data, prevent future compromises and adapt systems and practices to react to the changing threat environment. These include costs associated with notifying affected individuals and other agencies, additional security technologies, training and personnel, retention of experts and providing credit monitoring services for individuals whose data has been breached. These costs could be material and could adversely impact our results of operations in the period in which they are incurred, including by causing us to delay the pursuit of other important business strategies and initiatives, and may not meaningfully limit the success of future attempts to breach our information technology systems. Media or other reports of existing or perceived security vulnerabilities in our systems or those of our third-party business partners or service providers can also adversely impact our brand and reputation and materially impact our business. Additionally, the techniques and sophistication used to conduct cyber-attacks and compromise information technology systems, as well as the sources and targets of these attacks, change frequently and are often not recognized until such attacks are launched or have been in place for a period of time. The rapid evolution and increased adoption of artificial intelligence technologies amplifies these concerns. We continue to make significant investments in technology, third-party services and personnel to develop and implement systems and processes that are designed to anticipate cyber-attacks and to prevent or minimize breaches of our information technology systems or data loss, but these security measures cannot provide assurance that we will be successful in preventing such breaches or data loss.

We rely heavily on information technology systems, including the point-of-sale and payment processing system in our restaurants, technologies supporting our digital and delivery business, technologies that trace ingredients back to suppliers and growers and manage our supply chain, our rewards program, technologies that facilitate marketing initiatives, employee engagement and payroll processing, and various other processes and transactions. Our ability to effectively manage our business and coordinate the procurement, production, distribution, safety and sale of our products depends significantly on the availability, reliability and security of these systems. Many of these critical systems are provided and managed by third parties, and we are reliant on these third-party providers to implement protective measures that ensure the security and availability of their systems. Although we have operational safeguards in place, these safeguards may not be effective in preventing the failure of these third-party systems or platforms to operate effectively and be available. Failures may be caused by various factors, including power outages, catastrophic events, physical theft, computer and network failures, inadequate or ineffective redundancy, problems with transitioning to upgraded or replacement systems or platforms, flaws in third-party software or services, errors or improper use by our employees or the third-party service providers. If any of our critical IT systems were to become unreliable, unavailable, compromised or otherwise fail, and we were unable to recover in a timely manner, we could experience an interruption in our operations that could have a material adverse impact on our profitability.

Restaurant dining generally is dependent upon consumer discretionary spending, which may be affected by general economic conditions that are beyond our control. Increasing or prolonged high inflation, international, domestic and regional economic conditions, consumer income levels, financial market volatility, a slow or stagnant pace of economic growth, mass layoffs, rising energy costs, rising interest rates, social unrest, military conflicts and governmental, political and budget concerns or divisions may have a negative effect on consumer confidence and discretionary spending. Persistent inflation and concern about a prolonged economic downturn may lead consumers to decrease their discretionary spending. A significant decrease in our guest traffic or average transactions would negatively impact our financial performance. The actual or perceived threat of a pandemic or communicable disease, terrorist attack, mass shooting, heightened security requirements, including cybersecurity, or a failure to protect information systems for critical infrastructure, such as the electrical grid and telecommunications systems, could harm our operations, the economy or consumer confidence generally. Any of the above factors or other unfavorable changes in business and economic conditions affecting our guests could increase our costs, reduce traffic in our restaurants or limit our ability to increase pricing, any of which could lower our profit margins and have a material adverse effect on our sales, financial condition and results of operations. These factors also could cause us to, among other things, reduce the number and frequency of new restaurant openings, close restaurants or delay remodeling of our existing restaurant locations. Further, poor economic conditions may force nearby businesses to shut down, which could reduce traffic to our restaurants or cause our restaurant locations to be less attractive.

There is growing concern that climate change and global warming has caused and may continue to cause more severe, volatile weather or extended droughts, which could increase the frequency and duration of weather impacts on our operations. Adverse weather conditions have in the past and may again impact guest traffic at our restaurants and, in more severe cases such as hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires or other natural disasters, cause temporary restaurant closures, all of which negatively impact our restaurant sales. In addition, our supply chain is subject to increased costs caused by the effects of climate change, diminishing energy and water resources. Increasing weather volatility and changes in global weather patterns can reduce crop size and crop quality, or destroy crops altogether, which could result in decreased availability or higher pricing for our produce and other ingredients. We may be forced to source ingredients from new geographic regions, which could impact quality and taste, and increase our costs. These factors are beyond our control and, in many instances, unpredictable. Climate change and government regulation relating to climate change also could result in construction delays for new restaurants and interruptions to the availability or increases in the cost of utilities. The ongoing and long-term costs of these impacts related to climate change and other sustainability-related issues could have a material adverse effect on our business and financial condition if we are not able to mitigate them.