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Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL)
:CMCL
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Caledonia Mining
(NYSE MKT:CMCL)
59Neutral
Positive Factors
Production Achievements
Caledonia announced 4Q24 Blanket gold mine production of 19,841 ounces, at the top-end of implied guidance and above our 17,000 forecast.
Production and Revenue Growth
Caledonia Mining is expected to increase revenue due to more gold production.
Negative Factors
Cost Increases
Higher costs are leading to a reduction in projected EBITDA for 2025 and 2026.
Caledonia Mining (CMCL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$211.74M
Dividend Yield5.08%
Average Volume (3M)49.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.1
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth22.97%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees2,332
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength62
IndustryMining
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.50
Shares Outstanding19,214,554
10 Day Avg. Volume51,870
30 Day Avg. Volume49,231
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)1.45
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.00Price Target Upside30.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
Caledonia Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCaledonia Mining Corp. Plc engages in the mining, exploration, and development of mines. It operates through the following geographic segments: Zimbabwe, and South Africa. The Zimbabwe segment comprises Caledonia Holdings Zimbabwe Limited and subsidiaries. The South Africa segment comprise a gold mine, that is on care and maintenance, as well as sales made by Caledonia Mining South Africa Proprietary Limited to the Blanket Mine. The company was founded on February 5, 1992 and is headquartered in St. Helier, Jersey.
How the Company Makes MoneyCaledonia Mining Corporation Plc generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of gold from its flagship operation, the Blanket Gold Mine. The company earns money by producing gold, which is then sold to refiners and financial institutions. The revenue model is heavily reliant on gold prices in the global market, making it sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold bars and dore, a semi-pure alloy of gold. Additionally, Caledonia benefits from its ownership structure, which includes significant local ownership to comply with Zimbabwean regulations, potentially enhancing its operational stability and access to local resources. Strategic initiatives include expanding its mining operations and increasing production through investments in technology and infrastructure upgrades, which can lead to increased output and revenue.
Caledonia Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Caledonia Mining's financial performance is characterized by strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with a robust balance sheet marked by low debt levels. However, challenges remain in net profit conversion and cash retention, which slightly dampen the overall financial performance score.Income Statement
Caledonia Mining's TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue showed growth over the previous period, with a revenue growth rate of approximately 21%. Gross Profit Margin stands at 38.1%, indicating decent profitability in operations. However, the Net Profit Margin is relatively low at 5.8%, reflecting challenges in converting revenue into profit. The EBIT Margin and EBITDA Margin are strong at 24% and 30% respectively, showing solid operational efficiency.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet remains robust, with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.06, indicating low financial leverage and a conservative capital structure. Return on Equity (ROE) is 3.9%, which is modest but shows room for improvement. The Equity Ratio is high at 72.8%, demonstrating a strong equity base relative to total assets, providing financial stability.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Caledonia Mining has shown improvement in cash flow generation, with a positive Free Cash Flow of $3.9 million in the TTM, compared to a negative free cash flow in the previous year. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong, indicating good cash conversion from earnings. However, Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is low, suggesting potential challenges in cash retention.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 167.77M | 138.68M | 142.08M | 121.33M | 100.00M | 75.83M | Gross Profit |
| 63.94M | 41.37M | 61.82M | 54.07M | 46.66M | 31.14M | EBIT |
| 40.28M | 15.18M | 40.28M | 38.36M | 40.73M | 26.57M | EBITDA |
| 50.37M | 29.70M | 50.43M | 46.42M | 45.42M | 65.47M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 9.66M | -4.20M | 17.90M | 18.41M | 20.78M | 42.02M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 11.19M | 6.71M | 4.74M | 17.15M | 19.09M | 9.38M | Total Assets |
| 125.69M | 328.30M | 235.19M | 210.88M | 177.92M | 143.55M | Total Debt |
| 5.96M | 25.06M | 12.66M | 1.35M | 647.00K | 3.31M | Net Debt |
| -5.23M | 18.35M | 7.92M | -15.80M | -18.45M | -6.07M | Total Liabilities |
| 46.88M | 64.11M | 41.73M | 30.32M | 19.88M | 18.84M | Stockholders Equity |
| 70.46M | 239.72M | 171.05M | 161.30M | 141.52M | 108.42M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 3.90M | -15.62M | -1.48M | -6.93M | 3.12M | -1.96M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 31.59M | 14.77M | 42.62M | 30.90M | 30.96M | 18.06M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -28.13M | -31.16M | -44.57M | -35.92M | -28.00M | -19.02M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -8.78M | 3.93M | -12.51M | 2.37M | 7.33M | -1.23M |
Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis
Positive
10.71
Price Trends
9.91
Positive
11.09
Negative
11.44
Negative
Market Momentum
0.20
Negative
56.09
Neutral
76.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.49, above the 50-day MA of 9.91, and below the 200-day MA of 11.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CMCL.
Caledonia Mining Risk Analysis
Caledonia Mining disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Caledonia Mining reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Caledonia Mining Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (47)
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
CMCL
Caledonia Mining
10.71
0.63
6.25%
SAND
Sandstorm Gold
6.31
1.47
30.37%
BTG
B2Gold
2.76
0.33
13.58%
Caledonia Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Nov 11, 2024 | % Change Since: -27.59% | Next Earnings Date: Mar 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of positive and negative aspects. Revenue and profit growth, along with promising exploration results at Motapa, were notable positives. However, these were tempered by a mine fatality, rising production costs, and significant foreign exchange losses due to Zimbabwe's volatile currency situation. The sentiment of the call is balanced, with both encouraging achievements and substantial challenges.Highlights
Revenue Growth and Increased Gross Profit
Revenue increased by 13.6%, driven by a 28% increase in gold prices, resulting in a 7% rise in gross profit for the quarter.
Solar Plant Sale and Future Expansion
The solar plant constructed at a cost of $14 million is being sold for over $22 million, with plans to continue receiving power from it. The new owner is assessing an additional 8 megawatt expansion, potentially saving $1.6 million annually.
Positive Exploration Results at Motapa
Encouraging exploration results were reported at Motapa, with significant oxide potential identified. Plans to focus on this area in 2025 and 2026 are underway, indicating potential for future resources.
Continued Dividend Payments
The company declared another dividend of $0.14, maintaining its commitment to shareholder returns despite other capital demands.
Lowlights
Fatality at the Mine
A tragic incident at the mine resulted in the loss of an employee in late September.
Production Costs and Currency Instability
Production costs increased by 3.9%, with added pressure from higher electricity and labor costs. Significant foreign exchange losses amounted to $9.3 million for the year due to Zimbabwe's currency devaluation.
Gold Production Below Target
Gold production was 6.9% below target for the quarter, primarily due to a fall of ground at the start of July.
Operational Challenges in Zimbabwe
The company faced ongoing challenges with currency instability and the need to manage foreign exchange losses, impacting financial performance.
Company Guidance
In the Q3 2024 earnings call for Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL), the executives provided several key metrics and insights into the company's performance and future guidance. The company produced just under 19,000 ounces of gold in the quarter and remains on track to achieve full-year guidance of 74,000 to 78,000 ounces. Revenue increased by 13.6%, driven by higher gold prices, which averaged over $2,400 per ounce in the quarter, leading to improved gross profit. However, net profit faced challenges from continued foreign exchange losses totaling $9.3 million for the year and increased production costs at the Blanket mine. The company highlighted cost control initiatives, such as power factor correction expected to save $1.3 million annually, and operational changes to improve efficiency. Caledonia also announced the sale of its solar plant for over $22 million, a strategic move to free up capital while continuing to benefit from reliable power generation. Additionally, the company declared another dividend of $0.14 per share, emphasizing a commitment to maintaining shareholder returns. The call also discussed encouraging preliminary exploration results at Motapa, with a focus on expanding resources through continued drilling activities in 2025 and 2026.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.