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Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT)
NYSE:BXMT
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Blackstone Mortgage
(NYSE:BXMT)60Neutral
Positive Factors
Credit Stability
Credit stability has improved and management has shown an ability to grow earnings per share by redeploying capital from resolutions and repayments.
Loan Resolutions
The company resolved a significant portion of impaired assets above their carrying value, indicating effective asset management.
Negative Factors
Earnings Estimates
Earnings estimates have been revised downward due to a lower earnings run-rate and modestly lower asset growth.
Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.45B
Dividend Yield10.79%
Average Volume (3M)1.73M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth-12.86%
EPS Growth-182.05%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength72
IndustryREITs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.17
Shares Outstanding171,594,860
10 Day Avg. Volume1,891,092
30 Day Avg. Volume1,731,396
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)5.17
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)10.30
P/FCF Ratio2.10
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.20Price Target Upside0.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
Blackstone Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. is a real estate finance company, which engages in originating senior loans collateralized by commercial real estate. Its investment objective is to preserve and protect shareholder capital while producing risk-adjusted returns primarily through dividends generated from current income from its loan portfolio. The company was founded by Samuel Zell, John R. Klopp, and Craig M. Hatkoff in July 1997 and is headquartered in New York, NY.
How the Company Makes MoneyBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the interest income from its portfolio of senior loans secured by high-quality commercial real estate assets. The company originates loans for a broad range of property types, offering flexible financing solutions tailored to meet the needs of borrowers. Revenue is also derived from fees associated with loan origination, including commitment fees and syndication fees, which contribute to the company's earnings. BXMT's performance is closely tied to the health of the real estate markets in which it operates, as well as its ability to manage credit risk and interest rate fluctuations effectively. The company leverages its association with Blackstone, accessing its global network and expertise in real estate to enhance deal sourcing, underwriting, and asset management capabilities.
Blackstone Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Blackstone Mortgage shows resilience in cash flow generation and a strong balance sheet with zero debt, positioning it well for future stability. However, significant net income decline raises concerns about profitability and operational efficiency. The company should focus on improving income generation while maintaining its solid liquidity position.Income Statement
Blackstone Mortgage's income statement reveals a significant decline in net income, resulting in a negative net profit margin for the latest annual period. The gross profit margin remains solid at 100% due to the nature of its revenue recognition, but EBIT margins have decreased compared to prior years. Furthermore, the company experienced revenue growth from the previous year, but the net income deterioration poses concerns regarding profitability sustainability.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet indicates a strong equity position, with a current debt-to-equity ratio of 0, as the company has cleared its debt, significantly improving from previous years. However, the return on equity has turned negative due to the substantial net loss. The equity ratio stands at approximately 19%, reflecting a moderately leveraged balance sheet, common in the REIT industry.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Blackstone Mortgage's cash flow statement highlights robust free cash flow generation despite the net loss, with a stable operating cash flow that exceeds net income, indicating good cash earnings quality. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, and cash reserves have increased significantly, suggesting improved liquidity and financial flexibility.70
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 498.53M | 420.88M | 628.05M | 514.47M | 432.18M | Gross Profit |
| 498.53M | 420.88M | 517.76M | 426.00M | 354.26M | EBIT |
| 0.00 | 250.64M | 960.13M | 419.62M | 137.99M | EBITDA |
| 0.00 | 0.00 | 962.55M | 419.62M | 137.99M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -204.09M | 246.56M | 248.64M | 419.19M | 137.67M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 323.48M | 350.01M | 291.34M | 551.15M | 289.97M | Total Assets |
| 19.80B | 24.04B | 25.35B | 22.70B | 16.96B | Total Debt |
| 15.73B | 19.30B | 20.44B | 17.51B | 12.46B | Net Debt |
| 15.41B | 18.95B | 20.15B | 16.96B | 12.17B | Total Liabilities |
| 16.01B | 19.65B | 20.81B | 18.08B | 13.05B | Stockholders Equity |
| 3.79B | 4.37B | 4.52B | 4.59B | 3.89B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 366.45M | 458.84M | 396.82M | 382.48M | 336.61M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 366.45M | 458.84M | 396.82M | 382.48M | 336.61M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 3.50B | 1.44B | -3.25B | -5.63B | -88.25M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -3.88B | -1.85B | 2.61B | 5.51B | -110.77M |
Blackstone Mortgage Technical Analysis
Positive
20.04
Price Trends
18.64
Positive
18.39
Positive
17.73
Positive
Market Momentum
0.50
Positive
56.90
Neutral
21.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BXMT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.91, above the 50-day MA of 18.64, and above the 200-day MA of 17.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BXMT.
Blackstone Mortgage Risk Analysis
Blackstone Mortgage disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blackstone Mortgage reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Blackstone Mortgage Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $6.70B | 18.06 | 5.59% | 9.53% | -0.97% | 3.75% | |
68 Neutral | $1.47B | 13.46 | 7.05% | 7.78% | -5.09% | 6.25% | |
65 Neutral | $193.19B | 43.77 | 33.81% | 2.62% | 21.25% | 97.42% | |
61 Neutral | $4.91B | 18.99 | -3.12% | 7.77% | 6.71% | -19.69% | |
61 Neutral | $1.38B | ― | -6.38% | 12.00% | -9.71% | -426.57% | |
60 Neutral | $3.45B | ― | -5.39% | 10.79% | -12.86% | -182.05% | |
52 Neutral | $139.22M | ― | -35.77% | 10.45% | -26.87% | -189.15% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
20.04
2.44
13.86%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
9.98
0.35
3.63%
BX
Blackstone Group
152.04
31.93
26.58%
STWD
Starwood Property
20.12
1.75
9.53%
LADR
Ladder Capital
11.64
1.71
17.22%
GPMT
Granite Point Mortgage
2.82
-1.50
-34.72%
Blackstone Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 12, 2025 | % Change Since: 5.86% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a positive outlook, highlighting the resolution of nearly half of impaired loans, strong liquidity, and significant future growth potential. However, these positives were balanced by the challenges of negative distributable earnings and ongoing issues with remaining impaired loans.Highlights
Resolution of Impaired Loans
Resolved $1.1 billion or 49% of impaired loans, bringing performing loan percentage to 93%.
Robust Repayments and Liquidity
Repayments of $1.6 billion in the quarter and $5.2 billion for the year, leading to record liquidity of $1.9 billion.
Significant Corporate Debt Transaction
Completed largest corporate debt transaction in history, a $1.1 billion deal that was four times oversubscribed.
Portfolio and Earnings Growth Potential
$2 billion of pipeline closed or in closing, with strong focus on multifamily, industrial, and self-storage sectors.
Stock Buyback Program
Repurchased $18 million of common stock at an average share price of $17.91, resulting in a positive 1% economic return.
Lowlights
Negative Distributable Earnings
Reported distributable earnings of negative $1.25 per share, primarily due to $294 million of charge-offs.
Impaired Loan Challenges
Thirteen remaining impaired loans were burdened by $0.10 per share of quarterly interest expense.
Headwinds from Portfolio Turnover
Near-term headwinds from portfolio turnover are expected to modestly weigh on distributable earnings.
Company Guidance
In the Blackstone Mortgage Trust Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Investor Call, the company reported a GAAP net income of $0.21 per share and distributable earnings of negative $1.25 per share, with distributable earnings prior to charge-offs at $0.44 per share. They successfully resolved $1.1 billion or 49% of impaired loans, improving the performing loan percentage to 93%. The company paid a dividend of $0.47 per share for the fourth quarter. Robust repayments totaled $1.6 billion in the quarter and $5.2 billion for the year, contributing to a record liquidity of $1.9 billion. The largest corporate debt transaction in their history, a $1.1 billion deal, reduced debt to equity to 3.5 times. Blackstone Mortgage Trust is positioned for portfolio and earnings growth in 2025, with $2 billion of pipeline closed or in closing, and significant investment opportunities across multifamily, industrial, and self-storage sectors. The company aims to leverage its platform to enhance credit performance and explore a net lease strategy, with a focus on acquiring assets at a discount to replacement cost. The call also highlighted a positive market outlook for real estate credit, with high-quality real estate lending opportunities and improved liquidity across real estate markets.Blackstone Mortgage Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Blackstone Mortgage Appoints New CFO Amid Board Change
Neutral
Jan 3, 2025
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. has elected Marcin Urbaszek as the new Deputy Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer, bringing over 20 years of finance experience to the role. Additionally, Thomas E. Dobrowski has resigned from the Board of Directors after 26 years of service, leading to a reduction in board size from nine to eight members.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.